Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed almost unchanged in a volatile session as investors reacted cautiously to mounting geopolitical headwinds and a significant jump in crude oil prices, with Brent crude surging to USD 94.68 per barrel.
Donald Trump's inconsistent statements and actions regarding the conflict with Iran have drawn criticism and confusion, raising questions about American credibility and the direction of US foreign policy.
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
The government has dismissed speculation of an imminent increase in petrol and diesel prices, assuring citizens that there are no plans for a hike despite rising crude oil costs.
Indian stock markets experienced a second consecutive day of losses, with the Sensex tumbling 852 points, as crude oil prices surpassed USD 100 per barrel due to stalled US-Iran negotiations and escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
The government has introduced a mandatory 25-day gap between LPG cylinder bookings due to supply concerns arising from global disruptions and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This measure aims to prevent hoarding and prioritise essential non-domestic sectors, while domestic LPG production is being increased to mitigate shortages.
The logic of war plus the gathering storms in US politics as the midterms loom large leave him with no real alternative but to negotiate, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The Indian government is considering additional relief packages for vulnerable sectors like MSMEs to mitigate the impact of the ongoing West Asia crisis on the economy and inflation.
Uncertainty surrounds the planned second round of peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, as both sides engage in brinkmanship. Despite Pakistan's security preparations, Iran has yet to confirm its attendance, citing a lack of seriousness from the US in pursuing diplomacy and violations of the ceasefire.
An Indian-flagged crude oil tanker, Jag Laadki, safely sailed from the UAE's Fujairah port despite an attack on the terminal and is scheduled to reach India. The Indian government is working to ensure the safe passage of remaining Indian-flagged vessels in the region.
India imports nearly 60 percent of its LPG, with most cargo previously coming through the Strait of Hormuz, now closed for commercial shipping.
The Congress party has criticised the Indian government's diplomatic efforts, questioning how Pakistan was able to secure a role as a mediator between the US and Iran despite India's attempts to isolate it after the Pahalgam attack. The party also raised concerns about India's standing on the global stage and its relationship with the US and China.
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Iran has blamed the US for disruptions in oil and gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, citing 'destabilising actions' as the cause amid the ongoing West Asia conflict and rising energy prices.
'Despite the large number of missiles and drones we have already launched, we still possess reserves and missile cities whose doors have not yet been opened,' says Iran's Consul-General Saeid Reza Mosayeb Motlagh.
United States President Donald Trump has issued a strong warning to Iran, asserting that any attempt to impede the transit of petroleum through the Strait of Hormuz would be met with massive military retaliation.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The Congress party has criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi's diplomatic efforts following the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, facilitated in part by Pakistan. The party claims this development undermines Modi's strategy and exposes his perceived failures in foreign policy.
Although extensive air attacks have been carried out to destroy most of Iran's defence capabilities, the latter's resilience and sustenance during the war clearly indicate that the US landing force would encounter severe resistance in the operation, explains Commodore Venugopal Vengalil (retd).
Despite President Trump's optimistic prediction of a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict with Iran, Tehran dismisses any possibility of diplomatic breakthroughs, citing deep distrust and highlighting the complexities of US-Iran relations.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed Parliament on the West Asia crisis, advocating for dialogue and diplomacy, ensuring the safety of Indians in the region, and addressing concerns about fuel and food security.
Indian stock markets extended their gains for a third consecutive day, with the Sensex climbing 753 points and the Nifty closing above 24,550, driven by a drop in crude oil prices and optimism surrounding potential peace talks between Iran and the US.
Aviation fuel prices for domestic airlines remain unchanged, providing stability for local carriers, while commercial LPG and 5-kg cylinders see a significant rate hike due to rising international energy costs.
By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'. Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire. Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'. Prem Panicker's must read blog on the Iran War.
US President Donald Trump on Monday confirmed that a high-level American negotiating team, including Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, is en route to Pakistan to initiate critical negotiations with the Iranian leadership.
'It was diminishing even before Trump came to power.' 'The US was at the centre of the global economy. That position is going to become less and less important and less central.'
According to the report, the Pentagon is deploying the USS Tripoli ARG, along with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), part of its own strike group.
A US-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian crude oil is heading to India, marking the resumption of oil imports from Iran after seven years.
We cannot simply have a 60-65 per cent import dependency in LPG, the bulk of which comes from just one volatile region -- West Asia, points out R Jagannathan.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'Iran cannot trust the USA because it considers the USA to be Israel-controlled. And no, the IRGC is not going to accept anything else but major US concessions.'
The Iranian military has asserted that its forces successfully targeted and downed a US A-10 aircraft, according to a report by Al Jazeera.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant rally following the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, coupled with a drop in crude oil prices. The Sensex and Nifty both closed nearly 4 per cent higher, mirroring gains in global markets.
'... with the rest split between mid and smallcaps, as valuations are becoming more attractive across segments.'
The UK Maritime Trade Operations issued a warning noting that the incident took place approximately 15 nautical miles north of Sharjah.
Despite outward displays of cordiality, a formal visit by King Charles III to the US revealed underlying tensions between the leaders, highlighted by subtle rebukes and contrasting views on key issues.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered his support to help bring peace to West Asia, praising the Iranian people for their resilience. This comes as Iran seeks to resolve the conflict with the US, following discussions with Pakistani and Omani leadership.
Argentina has significantly increased its LPG exports to India to help mitigate shortages caused by the ongoing conflict in West Asia. This partnership is becoming increasingly important for India's energy security.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 28 paise to settle at 93.44 against the US dollar, influenced by ongoing uncertainties surrounding West Asia peace negotiations, volatile crude oil prices, and the Reserve Bank of India's recent adjustments to non-deliverable forward market regulations.
The Indian rupee saw a significant appreciation against the US dollar following President Trump's suspension of military strikes against Iran and the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain its key interest rate. Market sentiment was further buoyed by positive comments from the RBI regarding the health of the banking sector.
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