Which are the world's most vital straits, important to shipping?
The core issues to be settled -- access to Hormuz, Israel's aggression in Lebanon, the question of Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and compensation -- are thorny enough to require weeks of patient negotiation. The most likely outcome of the opening sessions is that both sides take the measure of each other, establish what is and is not negotiable, and return home without having broken anything. That would count as progress.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
An IndiGo flight from Delhi to Manchester was forced to return to its origin due to last-minute airspace restrictions related to the ongoing situation in West Asia. The flight was using a leased Boeing 787 aircraft.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Amid growing international instability, folks all over the world are wondering if there is any country that can be considered a secure refuge, should this conflict expand into a larger war, drawing in many more nations.
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
Former US President Donald Trump claimed he stopped a war between India and Pakistan and expressed his desire to be remembered as a great peacemaker.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'. Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire. Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'. Prem Panicker's must read blog on the Iran War.
It may now be time to question the price India is paying for Israel's disregard of the serious undermining of India's energy security, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The IRGC had announced earlier that it was carrying out an intense wave of attacks on US and Israeli positons throughout the region since dawn, using missiles as well as drones.
President Trump asserts the US military has decimated Iran's forces and no longer requires assistance from NATO allies to secure the Strait of Hormuz, despite earlier requests for support.
'The White House lunch that Trump hosted for Munir last year came just after Munir returned from a visit to Iran, at a moment when Israel and Iran were at war.' 'Trump said after that lunch that the Pakistanis know Iran very well. He likely views Munir as a useful interlocutor that can give helpful insights on Iran.'
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'I suspect that Bangladesh being given permission stuck in India's official craw, and this story was an attempt to balance the scales by giving the impression that a similar waiver had been given to India as well.'
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
'Torpedoes travel at more than 100 kilometres per hour, about 50-60 knots.' 'It must have been a matter of a few minutes before it detonated under the Iranian ship.' 'The Iranian ship would have probably got three, four minutes and wouldn't have known till they actually heard the whirr of the torpedo.'
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
According to a post on X by the US European Command, the tanker violated US sanctions and was tracked by the US Coast Guard cutter Munro prior to the operation.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's remarks come ahead of a high-level summit where India and the European Union are expected to formally announce the conclusion of negotiations on a comprehensive free trade agreement.
The deal shifts the US posture towards India from hostile to neutral, and that matters for growth, points out T T Ram Mohan.
Dhakshineswar Suresh is the nation's new Davis Cup hero, having led India to a historic 3-2 Davis Cup win over The Netherlands on Sunday.
Putin said that the Greenland issues doesn't concern him.
IndiGo is adjusting its long-haul flight schedule, including suspending services to Copenhagen, due to airspace uncertainties and airport congestion. The airline will also reduce flights to London and Manchester.
The US Coast Guard seized a Russian oil tanker, the Marinera, in the North Atlantic. The crew includes three Indian citizens. Moscow has protested the seizure, calling it a violation of international maritime law and demanding humane treatment of the crew.
US President Trump has issued emergency declarations for 10 states as authorities continue to prepare for frigid cold which will sweep across the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Following the seizure, Moscow issued a strong condemnation asserting that no country has the right to use force against vessels lawfully registered under another state's jurisdiction, particularly on the high seas.
United States President Donald Trump has brushed aside French President Emmanuel Macron's call for an emergency G7 meeting amid escalating tensions over Washington, DC's push to acquire Greenland, while Europe has warned of retaliatory trade action against US tariff threats.
As India's biggest Unified Payments Interface (UPI) app PhonePe prepares to list, the updated draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) shows the impact of regulations on the business, and concentration of payments-linked revenue even as UPI lacks MDR (merchant discount rate).
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