The front-runner of course is party treasurer and long-serving party legislator, S Duraimurugan. A Vanniar by caste from the rival PMK-strong northern belt, Duraimurugan makes up for his weak political grounding through his debating skills in the assembly, and witty repartee, both inside and outside. Apart from caste and regional representation, personal loyalty to the leader would count even more -- but there is no death of loyal and competent candidates in the party for the post, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
In the 2015 bypoll in the same RK Nagar seat, she had declared total assets of Rs 117.13 crore.
This time round, even 'petrol coupons' were reportedly distributed for those attending campaign rallies, especially those addressed by top leaders, cutting across party lines. If this owed to the rising cost of petrol and diesel -- which is a poll issue this time -- there were the customary coupons for 'quarter' (liquor bottle size) and non-vegetarian biryani. Some media reports claimed that some of these 'crowds' attended more than one political rally on the same day in the last week, and at times for rival political parties in adjoining constituencies or districts, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'There is no doubt that Sasikala wanted the transition to go this way.' 'The only thing the AIADMK MLAs want is to stay in power.'
From Chief Minister EK Palaniswami to Seeman to TTV Dhinakaran to elder brother M K Azhagiri, everyone's favourite target these days seems to the DMK chief Stalin, which is good news in an election year, but that doesn't mean he is going to sweep the polls, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
In a week from now, December 21, voters in R K Nagar in Chennai will decide who their MLA will be.
Second-line AIADMK leaders and cadres alike say that by starting the talks first with the BJP and committing the party to an alliance without discussing seat-sharing, the leadership might have commenced the coalition discourse at the wrong end. According to them, even 20 seats for the BJP may be too many, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
A PIL was filed in SC to stop Sasikala from taking oath on Tuesday as the AIADMK remained tight-lipped.
Ending three-week long suspense, Karnataka government on Monday decided to file an appeal in the Supreme Court against the acquittal of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa and three others in the disproportionate assets case.
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam workers on Sunday organised poojas in temples and took out processions praying for a favourable judgement.
'Did you not see it on TV?' 'He blessed Sasikala and comforted OPS.'
As a loyalist who would run to her with every little matter, he realises it is time he comes into his own.
Sasikala's name is doing the rounds for the general secretary's job, but it is one thing for Sasikala to acquire power under Jayalalithaa's wing and quite another when the CM is somebody else, says Aditi Phadnis.
The fracas between Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami and his deputy O Panneerselvam on Monday over who will be projected as the CM candidate in next year's assembly polls not only points to a possibility of another vertical split in Tamil Nadu's ruling party but will also come as sweet music for the opposition DMK which in the past stood to gain from the AIADMK's squabbles, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Though EPS has sworn peace for now, or so it seems, his camp is said to be considering the possibility of calling an early meeting of the party's general council, to get a mandate in his favour before things went out of control. Ground-level indications are that OPS had lost his limited base, which alone had forced him to patch up with the other, reportedly at the instance of the BJP ally at the Centre, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
At 70, going by hospital records made public, most age and health-related arguments put out against super-star Rajinikanth's entry into politics, before he withdrew citing a 2016 kidney-transplant, hold good for Sasikala, too, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Until very late on Saturday night her followers -- mostly cabinet ministers -- camped outside the prison. They were seen holding the prison walls and crying. Despite several attempts by the police to send them away, they refused to budge.
'As she has been sentenced to 4 years in prison, her disqualification period begins after that for 6 years, totaling the next 10 years of her life, which may indicate that her legislative career in politics is over for the time being.'
She faced intense and protracted struggle to eventually head the AIADMK.
Will the AIADMK acknowledge the role of CAA and the anti-CAA protests, both inside the state and outside, as among the causes for the current electoral reversal, as many in the party now want? It is unlikely to be so, but then the pressure will increase on the leadership to reassess the BJP alliance at one level and the 'blind support' for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's controversial policies on the other, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
While in the AIADMK office you could feel the vibes of victory, at OPS' house you could feel the struggle.
'I can only say that I will put my best foot forward,' Deepa Jayakumar tells Rediff.com's A Ganesh Nadar.
In private, AIADMK spokespersons say that the raid on Chief Secretary P Ramamohana Rao might be aimed at weakening the AIADMK, and demotivating the party from selecting/electing Jayalalithaa's confidante, Sasikala Natarajan, as her successor -- first as party head then possibly in the government, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Thousands of people hailing 'Puratchi Thalaivi Amma' (Revolutionary Leader Amma) walked with the cortege.
'One thing is clear from what happened last night; both sides are being manipulated by the same party with a lot of wrong inputs.' 'I see a hand in Delhi doing the puppet act on both sides.'
But the question before the leadership will be whether to retain the BJP alliance or dump it, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Should the ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu not make the required five out of 22 by-election seats, or even otherwise, the temptation to poach, especially from the Congress or starting with the Congress may be high on Chief Minister Edappadi K Palanisami's agenda, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Today, as Jayalalithaa's friend, advisor and 'sister' Sasikala is also lodged in Bangalore Central jail, the former Tamil Nadu chief minister is where she was before: alone, all alone
Coming as it does only months ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, the Chennai meet could provide the launch pad for a national alternative to the BJP-NDA, and MK Stalin may be given the credit for getting it going, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Every vote now counts in the Tamil Nadu assembly, as the ruling party is walking on a wafer-thin majority. The Opposition DMK-led combine has 98 MLAs on their side, and with four others who had won on the AIADMK's 'Two Leaves' symbol in 2016 but do not belong to the party, per se, playing hide-and-seek with the party leadership, Dhinakaran with two or three other MLAs can give sleepless nights for the ruling party than their post-verdict celebrations may seemingly indicate, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
A general election looms next month just as two cases involving Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa enter a crucial phase, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'He was doing so well as the CM, which some vested interests didn't like.' 'They didn't like his stature growing day by day.'
'If the interim chief minister lodges a criminal complaint against Sasikala for grabbing power through coercion, she has to face one more case.'
If something stands out in the one year since Jayalalithaa's passing, it would be her famed leadership qualities and her ability to reach out to the party and the people above the second line, and also the state administration, to the exclusion of all the rest. Only Indira Gandhi had achieved it all in her time, and no other leader, possibly excepting Prime Modi Modi, could hold a candle to that, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Should Sasikala seek to follow Jayalalithaa's footsteps in the matter, and if at all she is not disinterested in keeping the twin posts together, the by-election to Jayalalithaa's constituency R K Nagar could be the starting point, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
TTV Dinakaran's road to reaching the poll stage could still be strewn with legal difficulties, as much as political problems from other new players, like actors Kamal Hassan and Rajinikanth, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
A full one year after Jayalalithaa was hospitalised on the night of September 22, 2016, followed by long hospitalisation and death on December 5, Tamil Nadu continues to be rocked by instability and non-governance of every which kind, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
In the post Jayalalithaa Tamil Nadu, Sasikala is the person to be watched in the coming days, weeks and months, writes R Ramasubramanian.
'A person who came to take care of Jayalalithaa's personal needs slowly took control of her political life.'
With the Apollo Hospitals chairman saying that she has recovered, the party can go back to business as usual.
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