The EPS camp believes that the BJP was already arm-twisting the AIADMK into conceding more seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections 'than they deserve' observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The CM, along with Lok Sabha Deputy Speaker M Thambidurai, met the PM at his office in Parliament House.
This is a case relating to non-filing of Income Tax returns during 1991-94.
Neither the ruling DMK nor the fractured AIADMK Opposition anticipated that an assembly by-election would put them both to test, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The case of the two Shiv Sena factions for legitimacy and the party symbol, 'Bow and Arrow', is now before the Election Commission. Whichever way the EC findings go, the other can be expected to move the Supreme Court. They would need a final verdict before the parliamentary polls, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
If Tamil Nadu BJP President K Annamalai bought it in 2015, did he get prior approval from the Union home ministry, and did he include it in his annual wealth returns, sections of the media want to know. N Sathiya Moorthy on the curious case of the 'Rafale' watch.
Jayalalithaa was the third chief minister in Tamil Nadu to die in office, after her mentor M G Ramachandran (1987) and before that his mentor C N Annadurai (1969). The state government should have evolved protocols for the medical care of the incumbent, and institutional memory should have guided the government and officials in the matter, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
A special court in Bangalore on Thursday which, directed Jayalalithaa and three other accused to appear before it on April 5 in the disproportionate assets case, later revised its order to exempt the Tamil Nadu chief minister from appearing due to security reasons.
The AIADMK called Sasikala Pushpa's plea 'vindictive', stating that she did not challenge her expulsion from AIADMK.
O Panneerselvam should not be surprised if the current controversy that he has kicked off is used to rid him of the party coordinator's post, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The AIADMK general secretary is currently serving her sentence at the Parapanna Agrahara prison in Bengaluru.
There is a sudden realisation in party circles that prolonged court cases could damage its standing, both among the cadres and voters, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
What will a split in the AIADMK mean for Tamil Nadu?
EPS' real test will commence with a decision whether or not to patch up with OPS and on what terms -- and then, to decide whether or not to have the BJP for an electoral ally, come 2024, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Jayalalithaa's demise is seen as a personal loss for the 59-year-old Sasikala who was probably one of the few occupants of the Chief Minister's Veda Nilayam residence at Poes Garden besides assistants and officials.
There is nothing to suggest that the DMK stands to gain from the AIADMK split nor is there anything indicative of an extraordinary advantage for the BJP, independently or in the company of the AIADMK, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
It will be the year of preparation for the electoral test in Uttar Pradesh, due in 2022. But before that, the West Bengal Assembly election will set the mood for the rest of 2021.
Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu are centred on chief ministerial candidates of rival parties. When Sasikala cannot contest even a panchayat election for six years after her release, even if she were to have sympathetic backers even among apolitical voters, she does not have any 'transferrable vote-bank' even otherwise for a chief minister candidate of her choice, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
R Rajagopalan on why September promises to be a crucial month for Tamil Nadu.
The Hindutva social media continues to present the DMK especially as anti-god, anti-Hindu and anti-Brahmin. The strategy did not work in the past, it has not worked in the present, and would not work in the future, as a massive vote-getter, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
With the Tamil Nadu electorate having given him an unprecedented mandate that had eluded his father the late M Karunanidhi, Stalin has to prove his worth, ensuring at the same time that the Dravidian drag on the AIADMK's side does not open up space for the BJP to make inroads in the state, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'They are going to be clubbed with the Lok Sabha elections which are six months away.' 'These people who are ruling Tamil Nadu know very well that they cannot win another election.'
Ahead of VK Sasikala's return to Tamil Nadu on February 8, there are some important questions facing her. One, does she carry electoral weight more now than her brainchild AMMK had in the 2019 LS polls? Two, can she retain or build upon the five per cent vote-share from that time? And finally, is there space for Sasikala to retrieve, first within the AIADMK and then across the state, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Special Public Prosecutor B V Acharya has advised the Karnataka government to file an appeal in the Supreme Court against acquittal of former Tamil Nadu chief minister Jayalalithaa and three others in the disproportionate assets case, saying it was a "fit case" to do so.
The chief minister may have Prime Minister Modi's backing.
'I see the queen bee kind of syndrome.' 'When they know that there is a queen bee, the bees will hang around her for some time and then fly away.' 'I won't be surprised if somebody else takes the place of the queen bee.'
The AIADMK's staying power is not in question, but it has to regain the winning streak. That will require its leaders and leadership to re-wire themselves, to be able to re-think situations in ways different from what they had been accustomed to, suggests Sathiya Moorthy.
It should not surprise anyone if either of the contending parties in the 'TN speaker's case' comes up with a submission for referring the matter of 'speaker's powers' to a Constitution Bench. In political terms it could buy more time for the Edappadi camp, to settle down and stabilise itself, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Cries of "Amma" rent the air as a sea of humanity thronged the Rajaji Hall grounds on Tuesday to pay their last respects to AIADMK supremo and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, whose body lay in state in Chennai where normal life virtually came to a grinding halt.
"I don't understand her rush to become the chief minister. Does she not understand the situation in Tamil Nadu?" The battle between O Panneerselvam and Sasikala continues
The revived factionalism in the AIADMK, if not curbed now, has the potential to split the party vertically, warns N Sathiya Moorthy.
New Union minister L Murugan's declaration of Kongu Nadu as his native place, instead of Tamil Nadu, may be part of a grand BJP strategy to create new states out of existing ones, particularly those that have anti-BJP governments, mulls N Sathiya Moorthy.
MK Stalin's ruling AIDMK rival does not thankfully face such problems as he did, but its problems could be worse if saner counsel does not prevail between now and the assembly polls, warns N Sathiya Moorthy.
Given the history of the trial proceedings, and the documents that the judges and lawyers in the appeal courts have to read at every stage, Jayalalithaa's bail plea, when moved, will take time to be decided, placing a question mark over the party's electoral prospects in 2016.
Sasikala's declaration of staying away from politics does not necessarily have to mean that she was retiring for good. She is only taking time to evaluate the post-poll chances of hers before digging in again, if possible, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi to dig up the perceived past of the DMK rival, now under a new leader in M K Stalin, may not gel with the voters, both old and new. If they are still going to vote for the AIADMK-BJP combine, it will be for entirely different reasons, and despite Modi's poll speeches, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Stalin owes his victory this time, like in 2019, to the hate-campaign of the local Hindutva forces, which kept haranguing him, and even his dead father, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
While there is likely no bar on Jayalalithaa meeting with Chief Minister O Panneerselvam and his cabinet colleagues, she may not see senior government officials or see official files.
'Sasikala definitely has an emotional advantage over the others, but there are very seasoned politicians with a strong support base.' 'For the time being, they may toe her line.'
'Going by his political conduct over the past 15 years since first becoming chief minister, he has made enough enemies among equals as friends and followers.' 'They could gang up and that could mean a lot for AIADMK politics to handle,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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