Prem Panicker's Must Read Blog On The Gulf War.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'We are getting used to the constant alerts to take shelter, listening to sonic booms from jets flying above us, hearing news of neighbouring ports being targeted, and being the only ship in the terminal.'
West Asia conflict triggers sharp sell-off in Indian markets, with realty, banking and auto stocks leading losses amid energy shock fears.
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
It may now be time to question the price India is paying for Israel's disregard of the serious undermining of India's energy security, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'Our diplomacy should have been focused on preventing war and avoiding the inevitable disruptions it would cause, posing a real risk to India's growth story,' asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
India's handling of the Iran crisis reflects a growing strain between strategic autonomy and geopolitical alignment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
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'India's ties with Israel have to do with defence and general technology.' 'The war changes nothing in what India and Israel hope to get from the relationship.' 'It's not as though India will get significantly more benefits from Iran if India abandons Israel at this time.'
'After we were alerted about the war, none of us could sleep for the next two nights while sailing through those waters.'
AI reduces the time taken to find a target and launch a strike. This has led to a major increase in the pace of the conflict, with one report mentioning nearly 900 strikes launched on Iranian targets in the first 12 hours of an operation.
Mohanlal's highly anticipated film Drishyam 3 has been postponed from its initial April 2 release to May 21, coinciding with the actor's birthday, due to ongoing war tensions in the Gulf region and the upcoming Kerala elections.
'US and Iran have not annulled the ceasefire, and the possibility of continuing negotiations remains open.'
It is time for India to step up and get Russia, China and Europe to agree to a joint appeal to all combatants. Time is of essence, tomorrow may be too late, asserts Colonel Anil A Athale, former head of the history division, ministry of defence.
16 days into the war, US forces were already running out of ground-attack missiles and Israel is about to expend its entire Arrow interceptor missiles by end March. To be sure, the Iranians are watching closely and that explains their defiant stance that 'Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its conditions are met', notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will review the impact of the West Asia conflict on India's food, energy, and fuel security with senior cabinet ministers. The meeting follows previous discussions and concerns raised about global energy crises and supply chain disruptions.
The broader conflict in West Asia, the largest international market for Indian carriers, has forced a sharp reduction in daily flights relative to the summer schedule.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively pushing Trump to take the war to its bitter finish and 'erase' Iran's presence in the geopolitics of the region. Simply put, the two most powerful Sunni Arab oligarchies are on the same page as Israel. Such interference increases the risk of a breakdown in dialogue between the US and Iran, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Periods of geopolitical uncertainty often see a rise in coordinated cyber threats, disinformation campaigns, and infrastructure targeting.'
Households should moderate large discretionary expenses for the time being.
'They should prioritise essential spending. They should maintain an emergency fund covering 6 to 12 months of expenses.'
We cannot simply have a 60-65 per cent import dependency in LPG, the bulk of which comes from just one volatile region -- West Asia, points out R Jagannathan.
Elon Musk reportedly participated in a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss the Iran crisis, raising questions about his involvement in diplomatic discussions.
The Federation of Indian Pilots, said the union has written to the DGCA raising concerns over the extension.
The threat of wars hovers over the negotiations in Oman, but the good part is that Trump called the talks to be 'very good' and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian responded that they 'constitute a step forward', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'In India, there is this first generation migrant, say from a small village in UP. He didn't go to the Gulf to buy a big house but make the life of his family better.' 'He may have paid 1 lakh rupees to an agent to go to the Gulf. Imagine what will happen to him and his family if he has to come back. He and his family will become poor again.' 'He went to the Gulf to come out of poverty, but this war will make his family trapped in poverty once again.'
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
Iran has strongly criticised US plans to impose a blockade on its ports, warning that maritime security across the Persian Gulf region would be jeopardised if its own security is threatened.
The decision marks a significant leadership transition as the administration seeks a commander who 'will implement Donald Trump and Hegseth's vision for the Army'.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
'We have lost 70-80 per cent of our business from foreign guests.'
A Middle East expert claims that President Trump's approach to Iran is endangering US interests in the Gulf region, with support for the Iranian regime growing amid US-Israel tensions.
'Neither do the Israelis. The two attacking parties have very little economic interest in Hormuz.'
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'Refiners may soon be forced to adjust operations, curtailing runs as product exports stall and directing output solely to domestic markets.'
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
Pakistan is set to host the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkiye to discuss a range of issues, including de-escalating tensions in West Asia.
'Every day the meter is ticking. Like a time bomb.' Shipping giants are billing Indian exporters up to $3,000 per container in war surcharges -- on cargo that sailed before the war began -- as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down.
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