'Worst Gulf Crisis For Migrants In 50 Years'

'In India, there is this first generation migrant, say from a small village in UP. He didn't go to the Gulf to buy a big house but make the life of his family better.'

'He may have paid 1 lakh rupees to an agent to go to the Gulf. Imagine what will happen to him and his family if he has to come back. He and his family will become poor again.'
'He went to the Gulf to come out of poverty, but this war will make his family trapped in poverty once again.'

1980-1988. The eight year-long Iran-Iraq war.

1990-1991. Iraq attacking Kuwait.

2003. The United States attacked Iraq to capture Saddam Hussein.

These are some of the recent wars in the Middle East which had huge implications on the South Asian region.

Now comes the US-Israel attack on Iran, and the Middle East is in turmoil. So also South Asia.

Dr S Irudaya Rajan, an expert on migration, analyses how this war will affect the South Asian region, especially India.

Formerly with the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Dr Rajan is currently the Chair of the International Institute for Migration and Development and also the Chair of the KNOMAD (The Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development) World Bank working group on internal migration and urbanisation.

"The stress a migrant goes through will have consequences on his health; his physical health, mental health and social health which you cannot measure, Dr Rajan tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.

Out of the 10 million Indians in the Middle East, Keralites form a large number. So how is the US-Israel and Iran war going to affect Kerala society and economy?

Currently there are 2.2 million migrants from Kerala outside as per the Kerala Migration Survey, 2023. Out of that, 90% of them are in the Gulf.

So, you have close to 2 million Keralites in the Gulf.

It means 1 out of 5 of the 10 million Indians in the Gulf region, is a Malayalee.

The six countries; the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia accommodate 90% of Keralites.

I am of the opinion that you should not restrict the impact of the war on Kerala alone.

If you do so, you are underestimating the impact.

This war has an impact on not just India but the entire South Asia, that is, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Also, Indonesia and the Philippines in South East Asia.

When you take all these seven countries, you are talking about close to 15 million people.

You can describe this as the largest migration globally.

What I want to say is, not just Malayalees are dependent on the Gulf but people from South Asia and South East Asia.

But Kerala's economy depends heavily on petrol dollars...

You are right.

Last year India as a country received more than $135 billion as remittances from the Gulf.

If people are coming back from the Middle East due to the war, the remittances will come down.

So, it will affect not just Kerala. India as a country will have a problem.

I agree migration is more from some states in India, like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh.

But when you take Sri Lanka or Nepal, the war will have huge implications because many of the households in Sri Lanka and Nepal are dependent on remittances from the Gulf.

Of course, the Kerala economy is called the remittance economy.

But don't limit the story of the war or the crisis in the Middle East to Kerala.

Whatever impact the war will have on Kerala, it is applicable to all these countries.

It has to have a South Asia and South East Asia perspective.

I have been working on the Kerala Migration Survey data for the last 25 years.

Based on my experience, I can say whatever I say happens to Kerala families will happen to families in Pakistan, families in Indonesia and families in Sri Lanka.

'When the money does not come, there will be no food in the house'

In what way do you think the war will affect the people of South Asia and South East Asia?

I categorise the impact into four.

One: The impact on the migrants.

A war makes the migrants highly stressed. Till now, the migrants looked at the Gulf as a safe place. Now that is being questioned.

He may stay back despite the stress to make some money. He may have taken a loan in his country. Or, he may be constructing a house.

The stress he goes through will have consequences on his health; his physical health, mental health and social health which you cannot measure.

Two: The second impact will be on his family, that is, his parents, spouse and children.

He may be a nurse or a housemaid or a plumber or a construction worker but he has a family back at home.

The families are not migrants, they are located in the countries of origin.

And when they hear about the stories of destruction, they are under stress.

Three: The third impact will be on the society they live. The community.

The war happened on the 28th of February. Imagine how many households were expecting remittance from the Gulf on the 2nd of March after the person gets his salary on the 1st.

If the salary is delayed, everything back at home gets stalled -- from paying the loan instalment to the construction of the house to children's school fees to parents' hospital visit.

The bypass surgery or the cataract surgery scheduled for this week has to be postponed because the money has not come.

This way, a whole lot of things will affect not just the family, but the whole community.

If he has to come back, he is perceived as a return migrant who has returned in distress.

Four: The impact on the economy. For example, Kerala alone last year received Rs 200,000 crores as remittance according to the Kerala Migration Survey. I feel this is an underestimated figure.

Assume the remittance is reduced by Rs 50,000 crore, and how it will impact the state's economy.

When the remittance stops, the entire economy is in trouble.

Do you think it will have an even more impact on the economy of Sri Lanka or even Pakistan?

The consequence of the war will be very bad for Sri Lanka as the country is dependent heavily on the remittance from the Gulf after the economic crisis they had earlier.

You can expect even starvation in some of the localities where the migrants are dependent on remittances. When the money does not come, there will be no food in the house.

In India itself, there is this first generation migrant, say from a small village in Uttar Pradesh. He didn't go to the Gulf to buy a big house but make the life of his family better.

On the other hand, migration from Kerala has been happening for the last 60 years. So for that person from Kerala, the impact will be less.

On the other hand, the first generation migrant from UP might have paid 1 lakh rupees to an agent to go to the Gulf. Imagine what will happen to him and his family if he has to come back. He and his family will become poor again. He went to the Gulf to come out of poverty, but this war will make his family trapped in poverty once again.

This is the difference between Kerala and a state like UP or Rajasthan as Kerala has a long migration history to the Gulf.

Earlier the migration was happening mainly from Kerala, but now, it is spreading to many other states too.

Just look at the number of Etihad flights from India. It is flying from 14 cities in the country. Compare this to the four cities in Kerala from where flights are going to the Middle East: Trivandrum, Kochi, Kannur and Calicut.

'This crisis is worse than the Covid crisis'

Compared to the earlier wars like the Iran-Iraq War or the Gulf War, will this have more impact as there are more Indians in the Middle East now?

We have seen quite a few wars in the region earlier.

The earlier wars were between two countries, like between Iran and Iraq or Iraq and Kuwait.

Even the Russia-Ukraine war is also between those two countries.

The earlier wars did not go beyond the two countries in war. The maximum it had gone was to the region.

It did not expand to many countries which is what is happening now.

Even the 2008 economic crisis when it affected Dubai badly, it had no impact on the UAE. There was business as usual there.

I would say, this crisis is worse than the Covid crisis.

The current crisis in the Gulf is the worst crises migrants have faced in the last 50 years.

Why do you think so?

This kind of psychological fear was never created in the Gulf before.

The image of the Gulf as a safe haven is being questioned now.

For example, yesterday the Emirates flight from Chennai to Dubai had only 35 people in it.

Everything depends on how long the crisis continues to know the long term implication.

The current crisis will have short term and long term implications.

If the crisis continues for 20 days, the scenario will be different.

So, everything depends on how long the crisis will continue. And nobody knows the answer.

Anyway, the damage has been done.

But we have been talking from the perspective of migrants but it will also have implication on the people who never migrated.

'Impact of the crisis goes beyond migrants'

I read a report that export of pineapple, curry leaves, flowers, etc from Karipur airport to this Middle East during the Ramadan period has been stalled, and it will have a huge impact on the small farmers and businesses...

That's why I said the impact of the crisis goes beyond migrants.

The economy of is not just a migrants economy.

When the flights are not going, airport doesn't function. Everyone connected to the aviation industry will be affected.

Then, there is construction, trade, jewellery, sea food, vegetables... the list is endless.

IMAGE: Dr Irudaya Rajan

The impact of the Middle East crisis will be on every sector in the economy of the entire South Asia and South East Asia.

We are only talking about the economy of these countries.

What about the Gulf region itself?

The economy of the Gulf is managed by migrants. And when the migrants go back, the economy of the Middle East is dead.

While their economy is dependent on migrants, our economy depends on their money.

What I see is, when the war ends, there will be a very huge migration to the Gulf.

If there are 10 million migrants from India to the Gulf now, it will go up to 15 million.

While they need our labour, we need their money.

And they need migrants to bring their economy back on track, and rebuild everything.

• THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff