Srikanth Kondapalli, professor in Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University and rediff.com columnist, will appear on the Rediff Chat to discuss the import of Xi's visit and what it bodes for the two nations, for Asia, and for the world at large.
'India needs to closely monitor the discussions at the UNSC and make counter-measures as this touches its core interests', points out Srikanth Kondapalli.
'Given the sharp increase in oil prices, a mounting problem for the 2nd and 4th largest importers like China and India -- the Qingdao meeting is likely to push for the large energy producers (Russia and the Central Asian Republics) and energy consumers (China and India) to arrive at some understanding for mutually beneficial outcomes,' notes Srikanth Kondapalli.
'While overall this is a face saving deal just before the BRICS meeting in Xiamen, any forward military movement at Doklam once again could bring the two Asian giants at loggerheads,' says China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
'While many Chinese policy makers dismiss the political, economic and technological component of US-India relations, they express caution on the defence-related ties which also happens to be a major driver in US-India relations,' explains China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
India has moved beyond the traditional trappings of non-alignment
'Xi's emphasis on enhancing conventional military deterrence capabilities, joint operations and power projection are likely to increase friction points with India as with other nations,' points out China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
The Wuhan meetings signify an incremental shift in China's position on India as well as each country buying time for the next phase of bilateral relations, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
China's white paper on Asia-Pacific security cooperation extends an olive branch to India. It mentions India 15 times -- a record in all Chinese white papers issued so far. New Delhi's response will need to be carefully calibrated, says China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
'The border standoff, if not properly addressed by both sides, could escalate to a conventional or sub-conventional conflict between India and China,' predicts Srikanth Kondapalli, one of India's leading China experts.
'At the previous 18th party congress, Xi vowed to protect China's 'core' interests.' 'As a result, India faced a barrage of serious incidents on the borders with China -- at Depsang, Chumar, Pangong Tso and Doklam.' 'New Delhi will watch closely the political signals emanating from Beijing this week,' says China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
Since 55 per cent of Indian trade passes through the South China Sea, and with over $5 billion investments in the energy sector in Vietnam, it is imperative India actively pursues its national interests in the region, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
For a rising country like China with its sights set on global and regional power, any coming together of the US and India is the worst case scenario. Hence, China is concerned with the emerging equations between New Delhi and Washington, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
China's South China Sea build-up and 'territorial sea' construct potentially affects 55 percent of Indian trade passing through the region. Hence, coordinating with the US and Japan could provide dividends to India in the longer run,' says Srikanth Kondapalli.
'The regional context and the personal ties between Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to a large extent contributed to this dawn of a new era in bilateral relations,' says Srikanth Kondapalli.
The new government needs to clearly insist on diplomatic reciprocal arrangements with China. While reciprocity is a function of power in bilateral relations, the Modi-led government's responses should be based on India'S inherent strengths, says China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
'While visits and personal meetings are useful, changes of strategic significance have occurred recently, with Beijing trying to take the lead which Modi must take note of.'
'Assuming the official defence allocations represent the true picture, the $142 billion figure still represents a phenomenal increase and surpasses that of Japan ($42 billion), India ($40 billion), South Korea ($33 billion) and several other Asian countries put together and shows that China is flexing its military muscle.'
How will China deal with Taiwan's first woman president? Srikanth Kondapalli explains the significance of a historic election.
China continues to hold out on fingering Pakistan as the 'mothership of terror,' declaring Masood Azhar a terrorist at the UN, and India's membership of the NSG, says China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
While the two sides' objectives may appear to differ, it is clear that both India and China are emphasising on the common minimum possible areas of cooperation between them, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
Pyongyang wants the world to recognise its nuclear capability, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
Both India and South Korea will use President Park Geun-hye's visit to unveil a comprehensive programme for mutual benefit and impacting on regional security environment, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
'While China expressed reservations on the Indian role in the South China Sea, Beijing threw to the winds Indian concerns on Kashmir by announcing $46 billion in investments Pakistan occupied Kashmir,' says Srikanth Kondapalli.
'China, which had earlier blockaded New Delhi's bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group by citing the nuclear non-proliferation law, finds itself in an awkward position and international isolation.' 'India needs to pursue a policy of mediation between China and the Southeast Asian countries for regional security,' says Srikanth Kondapalli.
'The focus on countering terrorism brings to the issue Beijing's non-serious approach in this regard. India's permanent representative at the UN has raised in vain the issue of funding and the release of 26/11 suspect Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi. But China has blocked these objections since December 2014 at the UN even after 'highest levels' in India intervened,' notes Srikanth Kondapalli, reviewing the India-China military exercises in Kunming.
Despite four disarmament section talks and six strategic dialogues between the two foreign ministries, China's intransigence on recognising Indian nuclear status resulted in no confidence building measures in the nuclear field between the two, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
'China refuses to talk to India on nuclear or ballistic missile issues and conclude any de-targeting agreement as Beijing did with Russia or a non-targeting agreement with the US.'
All the three issues raised by China at the Modi-Xi meeting are either intractable or peripheral to the bilateral relations and suggest conventional methods to placate the other side without yielding much, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
In the case of India, there are no specific references in China's white paper. However, there are several takeaways for India, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
Unlike in the past, Modi made candid, frank and direct remarks on his hosts by suggesting that the Chinese side is holding back on further improving relations, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
As India rises, creating niche areas for itself in the Asian landscape, China and India are bound to step on each other's vital areas of importance, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
'Extending the range of the DF-21D could challenge Indian aircraft carriers if the missiles are launched from southwest China. Also, if Pakistan acquires these systems, these missiles could directly challenge India's aircraft carriers.'
'India needs to adopt a more proactive policy of triggering exports to China.'
Chinese President Xi Jinping has suggested five thrust areas to improve relations with India. It is likely all these issues, in addition to the points raised by Xi at Fortaleza, will be part of the joint declaration at the end of his visit to India, says Srikanth Kondapalli.
'During disengagement, you don't find violence.' 'And that, too, the killing of a commanding officer.' 'This indicates that this is more serious than previous incidents.'
'The BJP has done the Uri surgical strikes, handled the Dokalam crisis and the Balakot strikes.' 'So if there is a de-escalation only at the diplomatic level and not resolving this issue of a colonel being killed, then it translates into public anger.'
Srikanth Kondapalli on what to expect from the seventh BRICS summit meeting to be held in Russia in July.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had gone to China with a bagful of initiatives, but not all seems to have been fulfilled given China's reluctance to go the whole hog with him
The reasons for China's negative response are located in its territorial dispute with India but also to its grand designs of dominating the region from its previous position of being merely a "balancer" between India and Pakistan, points out Srikanth Kondapalli, Professor in Chinese Studies at JNU.
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