If General Asim Munir, Pakistan's new army chief, wants to help defuse the current polarised atmosphere and shepherd civilian politicians towards negotiations on an acceptable date for elections, he may need to distance himself from any perception of needless hostility to Imran Khan, explains Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W, India's external intelligence agency.
as journalists active in Pakistani media have been quick to point out, with Ghafoor at the helm in Balochistan, no one will take seriously any claims by the civilian leadership to use the velvet glove to work for peace there, points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.He did not hesitate to pejorate developments in India at the slightest opportunity, points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
Senior general refuses to retire, reveals Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Ananlysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
A retired Pakistan army officer incurs army chief General Bajwa's wrath, reveals Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid will take to his new command as duck to water, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
Major General Asif Ghafoor's transfer indicates General Qamar Bajwa is well in control once more, pushing behind the discontent among the peer group of senior generals over extension of his tenure, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
India will need to watch carefully and understand the new round of instability and uncertainty in Pakistan, while charting the course of its future diplomatic initiatives, points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'By convention, the prime minister is technically kept in the loop for the DG, ISI's appointment.' 'It remains to be seen if Prime Minister Imran Khan is able to indicate any preference by then,' says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
Keeping trusted men in key positions at Lahore, Rawalpindi and Peshawar has become vital for Bajwa, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
It is unlikely Brigadier Raja Rizwan was working for RA&W, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'With the extension issue settled clearly in his favour, Gen Bajwa would be free to fashion a more hardline policy against India. 'We could, therefore, expect a raising of the ante in Kashmir,' says Rana Banerji.
Despite dependence on the ISI for years of sustenance, Taliban leaders may harbour resentment over the ISI's excessive control, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing.
If Imran Khan delays his assent to General Bajwa's recommendations any further, it could imply he is taking stock of possible serious dissent within Pakistan's top army echelons, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
General Bajwa and the outgoing DG, ISI Lieutenant General Naveed Mukhtar, had a long meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan on Friday, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
These promotions will allow General Bajwa to shuffle the deck on the top, but this is likely to be a limited reshuffle, points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
General Bajwa remains in command as army chief and Prime Minister Imran Khan did not play any role in the reshuffle, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
It would be realistic to see India's position on the DGMOs joint statement more as 'engagement, different from dialogue', where our subsequent options could be decided depending on the realities of the situation on the ground, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
His ministers's conduct may lead to a distancing between the army leadership and Prime Minister Imran Khan reveals Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'A six month extension, if not extended further, would make General Bajwa a lame duck chief, altering the balance of his equations with the senior peer group of lieutenant generals,' says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
India cannot afford to be complacent about a possible Pakistan resort to military options across the LoC, warns Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
General Asad Durrani's disclosures could leave considerable egg on the face of those currently wielding the stick in Pakistan, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'Given the past practice in the Pakistan army, this delay is most unusual,' notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
India should remember that Pakistan-Saudi Arabia relations will remain special due, not least, to bonds of all Muslims with The Holy Land. They would also be strategic enough, irrespective of whether the ambassador is a military man or a career civilian appointee., notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
With the maulana fully committed and PML (N) cadres prepared to court arrest, this would be the first time where both Punjabis and Pakhtuns would be standing up against the Pakistan army, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
As many as 17 three star generals will retire before General Bajwa hangs his boots, says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'Already, there is talk of a possible extension for Raheel Sharif in the context of his perceived sterling, but incomplete work in the war against terror, as also the cleansing of crime and extortion networks in Karachi,' says Rana Banerji.
'After General Raheel Sharif took on the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, some sections of the military establishment may have felt unease as to whether the crackdown could be extended against friendlier 'non-State' actors like the Lashkar-e-Tayiba.'
'Jaish e Mohammed has been allowed to resurge through supported terror actions in J&K in a deliberate tactic by Pakistan, if only to reduce the international pressure on the Lashkar e Taiba leadership after 26/11,' points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
General Bajwa gets inputs from his senior officers, but he has the final word, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'The army has been open about its determination to keep the PML-Nawaz out of power at all costs.' 'Both the military and the higher judiciary have indicated a preference for Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik e Insaaf,' says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
The recent postings and promotions of three-star generals in the Pakistan Army have propelled some of former chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani's favourites to traditionally important positions
'A resurgent Jaish could be a reflection of the Pakistani security establishment's view that with the region moving ever closer to a post-US Afghanistan, it is time to redirect attention to Kashmir.'
'Against the backdrop of difficult administrative, political and economic problems, Imran's temperament and staying power will be the subject of intense expectation and public scrutiny,' says Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan Desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
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