In the coming few weeks, agriculture markets in North and Central India will be full of wheat, mustard, and chana - the three main rabi crops grown in these parts. Not only will the price trajectory of these determine the course of food inflation in the months to come, but it could also have a wider impact on the rural economy in the main growing states for these crops. Wheat and chana are largely grown in Madhya Pradesh (MP).
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The Russia-Ukraine crisis, along with general bullishness in agricultural commodities, has ensured that after a fairly long time, most of the 24 commodities for which the Centre declares the minimum support price (MSP) are trading above it. The exceptions here are chana or gram and a few varieties of pulses. This might gladden the farmers, especially those who are still holding on to their stocks from the previous kharif harvest or are harvesting the latest rabi crop. But this could stoke retail and wholesale inflation.
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The Centre on Friday said it will sell 'Bharat Rice' in the retail market at Rs 29 per kg from next week to give relief to the common man and has also directed traders to disclose rice/paddy stock, as part of its efforts to control prices that have risen by around 15 per cent in the last one year. In a press conference, Union Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra exuded confidence that these two measures along with the various restrictions of exports will help in cooling down the prices. Seeking to dispel market rumours, he categorically said the government has no plans to lift restrictions on rice exports any time soon.
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The Centre recently released the first advance estimates of kharif crops that, barring tur dal, showed a dip in production due to uneven monsoon and other natural calamities including pest attacks in cotton. The first Advance Estimates, released a few weeks back, are usually initial projections on the crop size and, more often than not, are revised as more inputs come from the fields. But, the findings have rung alarm bells in several quarters. The Centre, along with many others, is confident that as more details come, the estimates will be revised upwards.
After a steady surge, prices of pulses, except those of urad and masoor to some extent, are showing signs of stabilising amid a revival of monsoon rains over major growing areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka, and on expectations of a rise in imports. Chana prices, which too had moved up in recent months, have dropped by almost 3 per cent since the end of August due to increased liquidation of government stocks, official data shows. Monsoon rains seem to have benefitted the standing soybean crop as well.
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Capital markets regulator Sebi has extended the suspension of futures and options trading in seven agricultural commodities, including wheat and moong, for one more year till December 2023 in a bid to rein in prices. The other agricultural commodities suspended by Sebi are -- paddy (non-basmati), chana, crude palm oil, mustard seeds and their derivatives and soya bean and its derivatives. "The suspension of trading in the above contracts has been extended for one more year beyond December 20, 2022, i.e. till December 20, 2023," Sebi said in a statement on Wednesday.
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