The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
Iran's participation in this year's World Cup has been called into question after co-hosts the United States launched joint air strikes at the country along with Israel at the weekend.
The US Embassy acknowledged the attack in a post on X, urging Americans to avoid the facility 'until further notice' and announcing that all appointments had been cancelled.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has confirmed the deaths of six Indian nationals and one missing person amidst the escalating conflict in West Asia, detailing ongoing efforts for repatriation and diplomatic engagement.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has been actively involved in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran following the outbreak of war, ensuring the safety of Pakistani citizens in affected regions.
In a further escalation of the assault on the heavily fortified site, a missile strike also reportedly targeted the "helipad" at the embassy, as documented by Al Jazeera.
Precious metal prices surged in futures trading, with silver hitting Rs 2.93 lakh per kg and gold nearing Rs 1.68 lakh per 10 grams, driven by safe-haven demand following US-Israel strikes in Iran and retaliatory attacks.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, experienced a significant surge in the national capital as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East.
Referring to local sources, IRNA shared a video clip that it claims shows the downing of the American F-15 fighter jet in Kuwait.
'Every day the meter is ticking. Like a time bomb.' Shipping giants are billing Indian exporters up to $3,000 per container in war surcharges -- on cargo that sailed before the war began -- as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down.
'Much will depend on the position of the United States.' 'It will have to be seen to what extent the US will be more interested in achieving some form of a deal and to what extent Israel will be allowed to continue to carry out both airstrikes and the killing of Iranian officials.'
Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has assured the safety of Kannadigas residing in the Middle East amid escalating conflict, directing officials to take proactive measures and operationalize a dedicated helpline.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged its citizens to immediately depart from several Middle Eastern countries, citing "serious safety risks."
Will rising tensions between US-Israel and Iran threaten crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, putting India's fuel prices, imports, and economic stability at risk?
A Mumbai engineering student has been arrested by the Maharashtra ATS for allegedly sharing terrorist propaganda online related to banned organisations like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Islamic State, raising concerns about online radicalisation.
Government officials are reportedly apprehensive that the 30,000 to 40,000 US troops currently deployed within the region could serve as the primary target of the Islamic Republic in the event of an all-out war.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
Airports across the country have been placed on operational alert to manage potential flight diversions, unscheduled landings and passenger facilitation requirements.
Amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, an Iranian drone struck a British RAF base in Cyprus, prompting the UK to allow US defensive operations and consider evacuation plans for British citizens in the region.
Indian missions in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other Gulf countries have issued advisories urging Indian citizens to exercise caution and follow local safety guidelines amid rising regional tensions.
India's merchandise exports to the US contracted 21.77 per cent to $6.6 billion in January due to high tariffs imposed by America, according to the Commerce Ministry data. Exports contracted in September, October and December last year also. However, it rose 22.61 per cent in November.
Parents of Kashmiri students studying in Iran have appealed to the Indian government to evacuate their children due to ongoing tensions and protests in the country. They cite difficulties in communication and travel arrangements.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'I suspect that Bangladesh being given permission stuck in India's official craw, and this story was an attempt to balance the scales by giving the impression that a similar waiver had been given to India as well.'
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'Mojtaba Khamenei supervised the most recent repression in December 2025 and January 2026 which remains ongoing.'
From founding fathers to Europe's most unyielding rulers, these figures have not just held office, they have established a cult of leadership and will leave legacies, mostly mixed, that few can rival.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after its facilities came under attack amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, disrupting supplies to India and squeezing feedstock availability for key domestic sectors.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
With the Iran war escalating sharply and crisis deepening in the global energy market, India on Monday unveiled a coordinated plan to support exporters and shippers caught in the fallout.
Tensions escalate at the UN Security Council as the US and Israel defend their military actions against Iran, while Iran condemns the strikes as war crimes, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
Sonia Gandhi has criticised the Modi government's silence on the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, arguing it raises doubts about India's foreign policy direction and credibility.
'Strikes into the Gulf countries are proof that the security guarantees offered by the US are ineffective and that the Gulf countries cannot rely on American security assurances for their safety.'
