Prem Panicker's Must Read Blog On The Gulf War.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
A Middle East expert claims that President Trump's approach to Iran is endangering US interests in the Gulf region, with support for the Iranian regime growing amid US-Israel tensions.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'India's ties with Israel have to do with defence and general technology.' 'The war changes nothing in what India and Israel hope to get from the relationship.' 'It's not as though India will get significantly more benefits from Iran if India abandons Israel at this time.'
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
In crowded Mumbai trains, passengers, despite being crushed and unable to breathe, watch the IPL action on their phones. Oxygen may be optional, but the live score is not.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
'What we have yet to see on either the US or the Iranian side is willingness to compromise on their ultimate demands and the flexibility to reach an agreement to end the war.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
'In such a scenario, Iran could proclaim itself victor, rebuild, re-enforce its diminished regional proxies to further destabilise neighbouring nations and take control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.'
'Every day the meter is ticking. Like a time bomb.' Shipping giants are billing Indian exporters up to $3,000 per container in war surcharges -- on cargo that sailed before the war began -- as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
Despite President Trump's optimistic prediction of a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict with Iran, Tehran dismisses any possibility of diplomatic breakthroughs, citing deep distrust and highlighting the complexities of US-Iran relations.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
16 days into the war, US forces were already running out of ground-attack missiles and Israel is about to expend its entire Arrow interceptor missiles by end March. To be sure, the Iranians are watching closely and that explains their defiant stance that 'Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its conditions are met', notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The decision marks a significant leadership transition as the administration seeks a commander who 'will implement Donald Trump and Hegseth's vision for the Army'.
It may now be time to question the price India is paying for Israel's disregard of the serious undermining of India's energy security, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the report said Trump believes the conflict is in its final stages and has urged aides to adhere to the four-to-six-week timeline he has outlined publicly.
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
It is time for India to step up and get Russia, China and Europe to agree to a joint appeal to all combatants. Time is of essence, tomorrow may be too late, asserts Colonel Anil A Athale, former head of the history division, ministry of defence.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively pushing Trump to take the war to its bitter finish and 'erase' Iran's presence in the geopolitics of the region. Simply put, the two most powerful Sunni Arab oligarchies are on the same page as Israel. Such interference increases the risk of a breakdown in dialogue between the US and Iran, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
US President Donald Trump has asserted that the destruction of an American military aircraft will have no bearing on diplomatic discussions with Iran, according to a report by NBC News.
Punjab Congress chief Amrinder Singh Raja Warring is calling for a judge-monitored probe into the suicide of a warehousing corporation official, differing from other Congress MPs who want a CBI investigation. The case involves allegations of harassment against a former minister.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Former US President Donald Trump claimed he stopped a war between India and Pakistan and expressed his desire to be remembered as a great peacemaker.
"The world might face a food crisis if the war continued till the end of April, as it could have a dramatic impact on planting in Europe and North America," said Matt Simpson, CEO of Brazil Potash.
Israel wishes to continue its bombing campaign until Iran's military and industrial infrastructure are degraded to a point where it ceases to pose a threat to Israel. Iran, for its part, has learnt from its experience in the 12-day war of last June. Any ceasefire, it believes, will only be a prelude to another attack on itself. It is determined to convey that any attack on Iran will impose heavy costs on Israel, the US, America's allies in the Gulf -- and on the world at large, points out T T Ram Mohan.
Mohanlal's highly anticipated film Drishyam 3 has been postponed from its initial April 2 release to May 21, coinciding with the actor's birthday, due to ongoing war tensions in the Gulf region and the upcoming Kerala elections.
Sanjay Leela Bhansali's Love & War, starring Ranbir Kapoor, Alia Bhatt, and Vicky Kaushal, may face a release delay.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will review the impact of the West Asia conflict on India's food, energy, and fuel security with senior cabinet ministers. The meeting follows previous discussions and concerns raised about global energy crises and supply chain disruptions.
To be sure, Trump is furious, as the trajectory of the war is in a state of Zugzwang, as chess players call it. Trump and Netanyahu stare at two choices -- retreat in humiliation and concede Tehran's demands -- recognition of its rights, reparations, and binding security guarantees -- or perish in a quagmire, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
AI reduces the time taken to find a target and launch a strike. This has led to a major increase in the pace of the conflict, with one report mentioning nearly 900 strikes launched on Iranian targets in the first 12 hours of an operation.
India's handling of the Iran crisis reflects a growing strain between strategic autonomy and geopolitical alignment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The modern war is about quality over quantity, points out Mihir S Sharma.
Economist Jeffrey Sachs saw Gulf nations' decision to partner with the US through the Abraham Accords as an "invitation for disaster" as it made them more dependent on American protection.
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