'Neither do the Israelis. The two attacking parties have very little economic interest in Hormuz.'
Key Points
- 'We should be focusing on making sure that peace is restored, the Strait of Hormuz is open, and Chinese influence does not expand in the region.'
- 'We should be cautious about China gaining greater influence in this region.'
- 'The Chinese would want reduced American influence, which will give them an opportunity to expand theirs.'
"Most Gulf countries would realise that American defences are mainly for Israel, not for them. The Gulf countries would want their business models to come back to life and create certainty again," says Ambassador Gurjit Singh, India's former envoy to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia and ASEAN.
"That certainty cannot come from the Abraham Accords or with the US. It has to come with their relationship with Iran," Ambassador Singh tells Rediff's Archana Masih in the concluding part of the interview on the Iran war.
Would it be fair to say that the single most positive development that will have far reaching global impact will be the opening of the Strait of Hormuz that has held the world in panic?
Certainly opening of the Strait of Hormuz is critical for global energy supply chains.
It is important to note that the Americans don't depend on the Strait of Hormuz for oil supplies. Neither do the Israelis. The two attacking parties have very little economic interest in Hormuz.
However, the rest of the world like Europe, Japan, countries like ours -- have huge interests in Hormuz. The war has caused great sufferance and disruptions there's strong global pressure to open the Strait.
There's also been a shift in Iran's stance. Earlier, they said that America should pay for the reconstruction of Iran. But now they are saying they will charge every ship passing Hormuz -- 2 million dollars per ship -- and share it with Oman. They want to fund reconstruction that way instead of relying on American reparations.
But that creates another imbalance. Since US ships don't use the Hormuz, they will avoid the cost altogether. Meanwhile, the rest of us who rely on that route would effectively be paying for Iranian reconstruction when we have not caused the destruction.
What should India be more cautious about China's quiet game during this conflict?
We should be cautious about China gaining greater influence in this region. They have been working in the past with Saudi Arabia and UAE.
China has been trying to play a bigger role in this region. But they also did not take sides because they were drawing oil from Iran and also from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
They did not come out with pro-Iranian statements, but behind the scenes, they were helping Iran.
And now, they are trying to use Pakistan. The Chinese would want reduced American influence, which will give them an opportunity to expand theirs.
What will the reconstruction of Iran entail?
The reconstruction will be very expensive. They will need a lot of help and one wonders where will this help come from?
China and Russia do not have the wherewithal right now neither do other countries.
They would all be interested in the contracts to rebuild Iran, but not the money to rebuild Iran.
Therefore, they (Iran) are trying to get the money from the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does Israel emerge out of this war?
Israel has emerged as a destabilising force in the region, ready to take military action against multiple countries.
The day Israel stops fighting, and there is an end to its wars, it will probably mean the fall of the Benjamin Netanyahu regime which is under domestic pressure.
He has survived by creating wars all around.
How is this conflict likely to reshape the dynamics of this region?
One consequences is that the Gulf countries -- having bought American weaponry, provided them bases, perhaps on the mistaken belief that this would defend them and built their economic models on the assumption of that security -- now find their belief shattered by the Iranians.
The Americans have not defended them. Most Gulf countries would realise that American defences are mainly for Israel, not for them. The Gulf countries would want their airline model, AI models to come back to life and need to create a certainty again.
Certainly, that certainty cannot come from the Abraham Accords or with the US. It has to come with what is their relationship with Iran.
Iran created the uncertainty that something could be destroyed, leading to an exodus. The Gulf countries need to reconstruct. But this time, with Iran.
What should India be focusing on?
We should be focusing on making sure that peace is restored, the Strait of Hormuz is open, and Chinese influence does not expand in the region.
