Prem Panicker's Must Read Blog On The Gulf War.
'Iran cannot trust the USA because it considers the USA to be Israel-controlled. And no, the IRGC is not going to accept anything else but major US concessions.'
'We have lost 70-80 per cent of our business from foreign guests.'
Both sides have now revealed a preference for escalation over strategic defeat, and each new provocation narrows the space for the next pause. The Touska seizure, Iran's refusal to negotiate under blockade, Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure -- all of these add up to an increasingly untenable situation. This makes the wild card -- Trump and his motormouth -- more consequential than ever, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
India is one of the few nations, and perhaps the only nation, that has good relations with America, Israel and Iran. Knowing that a war in the Gulf would damage our economy, hurt supply of fertilisers and fuel, and cause general chaos, we should have tried to ensure this war did not begin, asserts Aakar Patel.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
One of the most uncivilised characteristics of this war has been the total disregard for international law and the laws of armed conflict, asserts Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
'On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.'
West Asia conflict triggers sharp sell-off in Indian markets, with realty, banking and auto stocks leading losses amid energy shock fears.
A Middle East expert claims that President Trump's approach to Iran is endangering US interests in the Gulf region, with support for the Iranian regime growing amid US-Israel tensions.
Chaffing under public ridicule in the US as well as internationally for having 'lost' the war, Trump is under immense pressure to do something, cautions Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
Global energy markets saw a significant correction as oil prices nosedived following Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened, dismantling the 'war-risk' premium that had gripped the market.
10 stocks from the Nifty 200 index that offer good growth potential and scope to deliver decent returns from current levels, based on brokerage estimates.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
On April 7, hundreds of activists gathered outside the White House in Washington, DC, to oppose American military involvement in Iran.
'American stature has been reduced because they have not been able to achieve their aims.'
The logic of war plus the gathering storms in US politics as the midterms loom large leave him with no real alternative but to negotiate, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Neither do the Israelis. The two attacking parties have very little economic interest in Hormuz.'
'India's ties with Israel have to do with defence and general technology.' 'The war changes nothing in what India and Israel hope to get from the relationship.' 'It's not as though India will get significantly more benefits from Iran if India abandons Israel at this time.'
US President Donald Trump has stated that the war with Iran is "close to over," while the US Central Command reports blocking traffic to Iranian ports.
Nobody takes Pakistan seriously and therefore Pakistan's sudden mediating with almost immediate results of a ceasefire seems more contrived than real, points out Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
'US and Iran have not annulled the ceasefire, and the possibility of continuing negotiations remains open.'
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
In crowded Mumbai trains, passengers, despite being crushed and unable to breathe, watch the IPL action on their phones. Oxygen may be optional, but the live score is not.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
'What we have yet to see on either the US or the Iranian side is willingness to compromise on their ultimate demands and the flexibility to reach an agreement to end the war.
'Every day the meter is ticking. Like a time bomb.' Shipping giants are billing Indian exporters up to $3,000 per container in war surcharges -- on cargo that sailed before the war began -- as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
'In such a scenario, Iran could proclaim itself victor, rebuild, re-enforce its diminished regional proxies to further destabilise neighbouring nations and take control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.'
Indian hotel companies are experiencing a sharp correction in share prices due to the Iran war and broader geopolitical tensions, leading analysts to cut operating profit expectations and valuations, despite structurally positive medium-term prospects.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Despite President Trump's optimistic prediction of a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict with Iran, Tehran dismisses any possibility of diplomatic breakthroughs, citing deep distrust and highlighting the complexities of US-Iran relations.
Despite initial pressure from the West Asia conflict, analysts are optimistic about the Indian hospital sector's outlook, citing strong demand drivers and ongoing expansion plans that are expected to fuel significant revenue growth over the next few years.
16 days into the war, US forces were already running out of ground-attack missiles and Israel is about to expend its entire Arrow interceptor missiles by end March. To be sure, the Iranians are watching closely and that explains their defiant stance that 'Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its conditions are met', notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the report said Trump believes the conflict is in its final stages and has urged aides to adhere to the four-to-six-week timeline he has outlined publicly.
Pope Leo XIV on Monday underscored his commitment to spiritual advocacy over political friction, stating that he has no desire to engage in a confrontation with the US administration.
It may now be time to question the price India is paying for Israel's disregard of the serious undermining of India's energy security, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
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