'In such a scenario, Iran could proclaim itself victor, rebuild, re-enforce its diminished regional proxies to further destabilise neighbouring nations and take control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.'
Key Points
- 'Sending US forces to Iran would prove arduous and dangerous.'
- 'Iranians cannot expect outsiders to deliver them from their internal repression.'
- 'Countries in Europe are declining to stand with the USA even though Iran is no friend of theirs.'
The US-Israel war against Iran is in its 32nd day with proclamations from Donald Trump that the conflict will end in 2-3 weeks. Diplomacy has shown no signs of resolving the conflict as a sustained campaign of air strikes has continued across Iran, Israel and the Middle East.
The war has sent oil prices to nearly $118 per barrel, the highest since the war began and caused fuel prices hitting an all-time high. The world is reeling at global impact as the war rages.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran has been preparing for a long-drawn-out war against the USA and Israel for more than four decades. Whether it can indeed endure as American and Israeli penetration becomes more granular remains to be seen," says Professor Jamsheed K Choksy, Distinguished Professor, Department of Central Eurasian Studies and Director, Inner Asian and Uralic National Resource Centre, Indiana University, USA.
'The war has brought the Middle East to a crossroads where the future may have an Iranian hegemony -- or it could lead to more balanced and dispersed power structures between Iran, the Arab nations, and Israel.'
"A long-term consequence may be the USA declining to stand with Europe in its future times of need," Professor Choksy tells Rediff's Archana Masih.
Donald Trump has said he will 'decimate' Iran. How deep is Iran's capacity to withstand the American-Israeli attacks?
American and Israeli airstrikes have taken a toll on the Islamic Republic of Iran's military capability. However, the extent to which Iran retains offensive and defensive capabilities -- especially through missiles and drones -- remains unclear, with some estimates suggesting that capabilities have been reduced by only 50 per cent or less.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, IRI, has been preparing for a long-drawn-out war against the USA and Israel for more than four decades. It has diverted and expended the larger part of national budgets and technological, industrial, and personnel resources with the goal not of preventing, but of surviving and outlasting foreign attack.
Whether the IRI's military command and control structures and ordnances can indeed endure as American and Israeli penetration becomes more granular remains to be seen.
In your opinion, how has the Iranian regime adapted and maintained continuity after the elimination the Ayotollah Khomeini, Ali Larijani and nearly 40 influential members of the leadership?
The IRI's regime consists of three major divisions -- clerical leaders, secular politicians, and military commanders. All three divisions of the ruling class have considerable build-in redundancy, so we have seen deceased leaders swiftly replaced.
The replacements, however, while more religiously and politically ideological and anti-western, increasingly do not have the same let alone superior religious stature, political pragmatism, and tactical experience as their predecessors.
So, whether those being promoted up from the ranks can continue to maintain a cohesive, functional, government during and after the war, especially as the regime continues to be reviled by a majority of Iranians, other than by ever-increasing draconian internal repression, is uncertain.
Have America -- and the Iranian people realised that an externally driven regime change is unrealistic -- even as reported executions of political prisoners and internal repression has continued during this war?
Externally-triggered regime change in Iran still remains a goal for the government of Israel and would be the best possible result that the US government seeks.
Deposing the Islamic Republic remains the aspiration of most Iranian citizens as well. The difficulty arises from airstrikes not being a particularly efficient method of depriving regime enforcers of guns and ammunition which are the basic means of quashing the people's aspirations for change.
If Washington and Jerusalem, and also the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, wish to ensure the government of Iran is overthrown, they will have to focus more specifically on demolishing the weapons depots and communication networks that supply enforcers in the cities and towns of Iran.
Yet, even if the Islamic regime survives this war, Iran's people can be expected to continue rising up periodically and the regime's repression eventually will not endure once Iranians reach the tipping point of being willing to sacrifice themselves to overwhelm the regime's forces.
Essentially, Iranians cannot expect outsiders to deliver them from their internal, governmental oppressors without extraordinary bravery, concerted effort, and loss of life on their own part.
Will it be a blunder for the Americans to launch a ground invasion in Iran, and more importantly will America risk pursuing this option considering Iran's preparedness for a ground invasion?
Sending in American forces onto Iranian soil, whether onto islands in the Persian Gulf or the mainland, would prove to be a most arduous and dangerous endeavour.
Even if US troops seize the main government centers of Tehran and other cities, they will be subject to asymmetric urban warfare with increasingly heavy casualties among troops and civilians -- as in Afghanistan and Iraq. They could swiftly come to be seen as occupiers rather than liberators.
'Israel does not have the force capacity to deploy in Iran'
Can the combined strength of the American and Israeli military with support from Gulf nations realistically transition the conflict from sustained strikes as we have seen so far, to a full-scale occupation of Iran? Or will Iran's geography, asymmetric warfare tactics render external occupation unachievable?
Arab forces entering Iran would be regarded negatively from the very inception due to cultural and regional hostilities going back centuries. Israel does not have the force capacity to deploy in substantial numbers into Iran, and would have to focus on carefully targeted ground operations if any.
Their best options to weaken the Iranian regime sufficiently so that ordinary Iranians can oust it would be:
To refocus and expand aerial strikes to target munition, transportation, logistical, and IRGC-Artesh (army)-Basij (paramilitary) personnel who are suppressing the people.
To fully deprive the regime of fiscal resources by cutting off all cashflows into and from Iran including reversal of the recent decision to permit Iran to sell oil and gas, and hack into and use Iran's extensive electronic data and surveillance networks against the regime including exposing regime enforces identities to the ordinary people of Iran.
Is diplomacy still a viable option de-escalate and end this conflict? What do you think of the Pakistan-Chinese offer to de-escalate the crisis?
Diplomacy must definitely be a constantly sought and attempted option to resolve the conflict. However, an agreement under which the US halts the war and leaves Iran's regime hardliners in power would be disastrous for the Middle East and the global community.
In such a scenario, the current radical government in Iran can be expected to proclaim itself as the victor, to rebuild and re-enforce its presently diminished regional proxies and utilise them to further destabilise neighbouring nations.
They can take control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz and regulate, control, periodically throttle as threat, and tax outward flows of oil, gas, petrochemicals and vital petrochemical byproducts such as helium and fertilisers.
They can also regulate, control, periodically throttle as threat, and tax inbound flows of staple foods like grains and sugar and other commodities vital for the daily lives of residents in the Arab nations along those waterways, and get even more emboldened in hostility toward the US and Israel.
'Countries in Europe are declining to stand alongside the USA'
How has this war altered the Middle East? How has it influenced relations between the Arab nations and Israel?
The war has brought the Gulf region/southwest Asia particularly and the Middle East broadly to a crossroads where the future may have an Iranian hegemony re-established as when the Achaemenian or Persian empire and subsequently the Sasanian empire ruled the region.
Or, it could lead to more balanced and dispersed power structures between Iran, the Arab nations, and Israel.
The IRI's closing of the Strait impacts the Arab countries of the Gulf's southern region most, and so rather than merely taking defensive postures they will need to be offensive to ensure equal access going forward, possibly by even joining the USA and Israel against Iran.
Countries in Europe, in part reacting to Trump's behaviour toward them, are declining to stand alongside the USA even though the IRI has been no friend of theirs.
A long-term consequence may be the USA declining to stand with Europe in its future times of need.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
