If the TVK joins the NDA, there is every likelihood of the AIADMK winning an absolute majority in the 234 seat assembly and wanting to form a stand-alone government. In turn, it could mean that the BJP especially and the TVK equally so, will want to restrict the AIADMK's seat share closer to the cut-off figure, if only to ensure that EPS won't get the absolute majority that he desires (if the NDA won, that is) and will have to settle for a coalition government, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Sources said a couple of resolutions are expected to be passed at the crucial meeting, with an eye on the upcoming Bihar polls.
Internal discord within the INDIA bloc has led to alliance partners contesting against each other in at least eight assembly seats in Bihar. The Congress, RJD, and Left parties are facing challenges in seat-sharing arrangements for the upcoming elections.
Confusion prevailing in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) showed little signs of let up on Saturday, with just two days to go before the filing of nomination papers for the second and final phase of assembly elections comes to a close.
'If the NDA returns with the BJP substantially ahead of the JD-U, a BJP CM bid becomes plausible; if the gap is narrow or JD-U holds pivotal seats, continuity with Nitish is the lower-risk option.'
As the impasse over some seats for Maharashtra polls continues in the Maha Vikas Aghadi, Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray leader Sanjay Raut on Saturday said if anyone needs the slogan 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas', it has to be the opposition bloc.
Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole on Tuesday said his party did not 'surrender' but took a step back in the seat-sharing negotiations with its Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance partners as the talks could not go on indefinitely.
Amidst speculation over the NDA seat-sharing deal in Bihar, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar distributed JD(U) tickets, while the BJP announced its first list of candidates. The INDIA bloc also faces internal challenges as parties prepare for the upcoming elections.
'Contesting fewer seats than last time but winning more and performing better... would be in the interest of the Congress.'
'The EPS camp feels assertiveness will help the AIADMK keep the BJP's seat-share ambitions to the minimum,' observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Chirag Paswan has warned the BJP-led NDA that it will settle for nothing less than 40-plus seats in the 2025 Bihar polls, even threatening to contest all 243 constituencies independently if sidelined.
'Karur could still impact Jana Nayagan's box-office success if Vijay and the TVK do not get their act together,' points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
'JD-U is not ready to take the political risk of playing second fiddle to the BJP in state politics.'
'We share and support the ideology of the NDA and will not work against the NDA.'
Sources said senior leaders of the party have been told to reach out to other leaders of the alliance and talks with some parties have begun.
Each leader will look after six assembly constituencies.
Most of these leaders are known for their organisational skills and successful management of elections in their respective states.
Nowhere are the stories of the coming election better told than on the roads of Bihar.
Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray has questioned the rationale behind the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance if mistakes like delays in finalising seat-sharing agreements and selecting candidates during the 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections are repeated.
'If the Mahagathbandhan ignores Mukesh Sahni's demands as it did in 2020, he will be left with no option but to join hands with the BJP.'
The two weeks that EPS took fending off the Sengottaiyan rebellion has since become lost time for the AIADMK as that was also the time Vijay took to go all-out against Stalin and the DMK, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
After the joint opposition protests at Jantar Mantar, Gandhi drove with Pawar to the latter's 6, Janpath residence.
The leaders of the two parties discussed the possibilities of seat sharing but did not divulge any details.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav on Saturday said his party's alliance with the Congress is 'off to a good start' with 11 'strong' Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh.
Commenting on the seat sharing in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), Samajwadi Party president and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav on Saturday said in Ballia that a decision will be made as soon as Surya Uttarayan occurs.
He said the Congress has already begun preparation for the Lok Sabha polls with the ongoing 'Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra' led by party leader Rahul Gandhi and his own visit to various places across the country.
Amit Shah seemingly encouraging AIADMK dissident Sengottaiyan after party boss Edappadi K Palaniswami had removed his one-time mentor from all party posts has not gone down well with party cadres. They are now ready to buy Team EPS' theory that the BJP and Amit Shah are out to liquidate the AIADMK, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Shiv Sena (UBT) and the MNS are likely to form an alliance for the upcoming local body polls in Maharashtra, with the final decision expected closer to the election date. Leaders from both parties acknowledge public pressure and the need to rejuvenate their cadres after poor performances in previous elections.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said his party was discussing the seat-sharing arrangements for the Lok Sabha polls with the ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, and the issue would be "resolved".
According to the TMC, the momentum built by the INDIA bloc over three successful meetings has dwindled in the last few months due to inactivity, with the Congress preoccupied with elections in three states.
Amid a tug-of-war between Congress and the Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray over seat sharing in Maharashtra ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, Shiva Sena-UBT MP Sanjay Raut expressed confidence in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, saying that the discussion on seat sharing is underway.
AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami is under pressure from his party as his unclear stand on the BJP alliance has brought back fears among party workers that the party may lose its identity, be forced into an unwanted coalition, and be taken over by the BJP later, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
When asked what transpired at the informal meeting of the alliance leaders in the evening, the Delhi chief minister said his party sought seat-sharing discussions for all the states.
"There can be an exchange of seats," Raut on Thursday said, stressing merit and winnability will be the key factors in selecting a candidate.
Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP accused National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah of leaving them "no option".
According to sources, while the date for the meeting has not been finalised yet, the meeting will be held in the third week of December.
The AAP will field candidates from the South Delhi, West Delhi, North West Delhi and New Delhi seats, while the Congress will contest from the Chandni Chowk, East Delhi and North East Delhi constituencies, the sources in the Aam Aadmi Party said.
They said they will raise issues related to rising prices, unemployment, corruption and caste census.
'The Election Commission's involvement in the avoidable SIR controversy has carried a message down to the last voter -- who just does not like it,' observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Pawar also said it is the moral responsibility of the major Opposition parties in Maharashtra to protect in the state assembly polls the interests of smaller allies, which were part of the coalition in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The meeting of the 14-member all-important panel of the opposition will take place at the residence of Nationalist Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar in New Delhi on September 13 evening.
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