Iran has reportedly allowed select "friendly nations" including India and Pakistan limited access to the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict, easing some energy supply concerns. Here's what the move means for global trade and oil routes.
India significantly increased piped natural gas (PNG) connections in March as the government accelerates the expansion of cleaner fuel networks amid global supply disruptions.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Indian stock market indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant drop in early trade, reversing a three-day rally. The decline was triggered by a sharp increase in crude oil prices, weak global market trends, and continuous outflows of foreign funds.
"The world might face a food crisis if the war continued till the end of April, as it could have a dramatic impact on planting in Europe and North America," said Matt Simpson, CEO of Brazil Potash.
India's net oil import bill could rise by $56 billion to $64 billion annually assuming global crude averages $110 to $115 per barrel in FY27.
The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran intensified sharply with attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf, even as US President Donald Trump said he had cautioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against targeting Iran's key South Pars Gas Field.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Will rising tensions between US-Israel and Iran threaten crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, putting India's fuel prices, imports, and economic stability at risk?
'Refiners may soon be forced to adjust operations, curtailing runs as product exports stall and directing output solely to domestic markets.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump discussed the Middle East crisis, with a focus on the Strait of Hormuz.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
Citizens and residents across the Gulf region are preparing for Eid amidst regional conflict, impacting festivities and daily life.
Amidst the ongoing conflict in West Asia, the Oil Ministry assures citizens that India's LPG supply remains secure, with no need for panic booking of cylinders. The normal delivery cycle of two-and-a-half days is being maintained, and crude oil is being sourced from diverse routes.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Indian-flagged vessels are navigating the Strait of Hormuz safely despite ongoing tensions in the region, ensuring the continued flow of vital energy supplies to India.
Israel wishes to continue its bombing campaign until Iran's military and industrial infrastructure are degraded to a point where it ceases to pose a threat to Israel. Iran, for its part, has learnt from its experience in the 12-day war of last June. Any ceasefire, it believes, will only be a prelude to another attack on itself. It is determined to convey that any attack on Iran will impose heavy costs on Israel, the US, America's allies in the Gulf -- and on the world at large, points out T T Ram Mohan.
Iran has blamed the US for disruptions in oil and gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, citing 'destabilising actions' as the cause amid the ongoing West Asia conflict and rising energy prices.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Congress leader Shashi Tharoor is urging the Indian government to take a more proactive role in mediating the escalating conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran, emphasising the impact on India's energy security and regional stability.
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
Two Indian ships carrying liquified petroleum gas (LPG) from the Gulf countries crossed the Strait of Hormuz early on Saturday morning, raising the number of Indian vessels safely passing through the war-hit, narrow shipping lane to three.
The government has assured citizens that there is no need to panic book LPG cylinders, as uninterrupted supply to households is being ensured despite the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'Every day the meter is ticking. Like a time bomb.' Shipping giants are billing Indian exporters up to $3,000 per container in war surcharges -- on cargo that sailed before the war began -- as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down.
Dozens of Indian-flagged ships and over a thousand seafarers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and surrounding areas due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amidst ongoing military actions involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and foreign fund outflows.
When asked about Bessent's announcement allowing certain Russian oil sales to India and whether the US is considering any other moves, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), Trump said, "If there were some, I would do it just to take a little of the pressure off."
24 Indian-flagged vessels with 677 Indian seafarers were currently located west of the Strait of Hormuz, and four vessels with 101 Indian seafarers were stationed east of the strategic waterway.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
If the oil infrastructure is attacked by the United States, the whole area could be flooded with oil, spilling into the Persian Gulf.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
India has gained the least since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and was penalised the most, while the US, China and the European Union emerged as the biggest beneficiaries from the war.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Lavrov said that the US has set itself the objective of 'achieving economic domination', adding further to it that Americans want to control the routes to leading countries to provide its energy sources to them.
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