'If the BJP had its way, it would sideline him in favour of someone else. But that's not feasible. There is no vote catcher in Bihar for the BJP.'
By naming a sworn swayamsevak for vice president, the Modi-Shah duo have sent out a clear and positive message to Nagpur, where the RSS headquarters is located, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
Fifty-nine members of delegations visiting 33 world capitals, reaching millions of people, giving one message, in one language, in one voice -- is an unprecedented world movement, observes former BJP MP Tarun Vijay, former Chief Editor, Panchjanya, the RSS weekly.
Here is a snapshot of what worked for the BJP and what worked against the AAP in the Delhi assembly elections.
'Undeniably, Modi's position has stabilised and he has staged a comeback of sorts from the weeks after the Lok Sabha results.' 'Coalition partners are likely to be more tolerant of Modi... The forthcoming elections in Delhi and Bihar will determine whether this continues or not.' 'To win Delhi and Bihar, Modi will have to work in conjunction with the RSS.' 'However, because of the 'truce' that has been worked out within the Sangh Parivar, Modi will have to be more consultative than he has been in the past ten years,' reveals Modi biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
The BJP's year has been marked by a remarkable ability to adapt its message and methods, rebounding from Lok Sabha election setbacks with improbable wins in Haryana and Maharashtra. The party's campaign machine, drawing on the strength of the RSS and its affiliates, has demonstrated a capacity to shift focus and respond to regional dynamics. While the BJP faces challenges, its adaptability and Modi's unchallenged leadership suggest a continued strong presence on the Indian political landscape.
That he hasn't done so yet, has continued to be active on the political street, in public debate and on social media, signals an important change. It will give his party hope. Maybe the achievement of reducing Mr Modi well below the majority mark will now motivate him to stay committed, observes Shekhar Gupta
Hosted by Singapore, the exercise was held on land at the now renamed "RSS Singapura - Changi Naval Base" and at a sea phase in the South China Sea.
Gopinath Munde came up the hard way and never forgot his roots. Just when he seemed destined for bigger things, death snatched him away.
'Nitish may take such a decision because he was the first person who was with the INDIA front.' 'He went back only because he did not get proper encouragement from the Congress.' 'Nitish will take a decision provided there is a strong alternative.' 'If he feels ours is a weak coalition, he will not come.' 'Then, this government will continue for five years.'
While people voted in a fifth round that will set the tone as this election rounds into the straight, and while Modi on the stump chews the cud of personal grievances and hackneyed promises that have long since passed their use-by date, there is a rogue wave rising -- what damage it will do, we will know 16 days from today, observes Prem Panicker.
'Those who hope for a strong united Opposition are disillusioned at the way in which the INDIA alliance has already been caught in debilitating squabbles.'
If the party's members aren't sure what it stands for, see no path to wealth or power, and endure control by a dynasty, which, almighty as it is within the party, cannot get them the votes, they are likely to explore options, notes Shekhar Gupta.
'Bringing in Dr Mohan Yadav as the Yadav-OBC face from Ujjain as chief minister, and a scheduled tribe leader Jagdish Devda from Mandsaur district, and a Brahmin face Rajendra Shukla from Rewa, the BJP is making an attempt to put in place a new caste equation in the state keeping an eye on the general elections next year.'
The longest-serving Bharatiya Janata Party chief minister and popularly known as mama (maternal uncle) and 'paon-paon wale bhaiya' (foot soldier), Shivraj Singh Chouhan has emerged as the hero of his party's stunning victory in the state assembly elections.
'It will be the end of the Congress after the Lok Sabha election.' 'Many Congressmen and even Communists will move to the BJP.'
Yadav also called for firming up of an Opposition alliance to take on the BJP in the 2024 general elections, suggesting that the Congress must focus on over 200 seats on which it is in direct fight with the saffron party, while taking a 'backseat' in states where regional parties are a formidable force.
'Actually, the RSS is deeply ambivalent and uncomfortable with Gandhi as well as also Ambedkar, but it is not politically wise to oppose these two.' 'So Nehru is the main and only target.'
"The RSS is trying to change the nature of India. Other parties haven't tried to capture India's institutions," he said.
If we accept that there is a challenge in Punjab today, any realistic progress can only be made if the rest of the country, especially the government and the ruling party, engage with this sense of grievance, points out Shekhar Gupta
'In the course of my interactions with him, Modi insisted that he does not believe charisma alone can sustain people's trust for long.' 'That is why Modi consistently refers to Mahatma Gandhi to contextualise his politics.' 'He believes in taking his ideas to the masses and getting their acceptance as an index of approval.'
A revealing excerpt from Ajay Singh's The Architect of the New BJP: How Narendra Modi Transformed the Party.
'Bihar today has erected a barrier against the BJP bulldozing the polity, the Constitution, and Opposition parties.'
The BJP has many ruthless leaders with super-sharp political minds. But none has all this and Yogi's charisma and personal ambition, observes Shekhar Gupta.
'With vendetta politics as its main plank, the BJP will be looking out for every opportunity to destabilise this Mahagatbandhan government.'
'If the Opposition does make a dent, it could encourage the efforts of regional parties to come together for the larger battle in 2024 and mark the beginning of a new anti-BJP politics.'
The Sikhs love a good fight, and that's what the Modi government has given them.
In spite of his trying hard he is unable to connect not only with ordinary voters but with most party colleagues as well, observes Virendra Kapoor.
'This kind of poisonous and anti-national activities happening in the country and the economic failure of the Modi government may boomerang in the form of a Congress revival.'
Congress is the only other horse in the race for national power, never mind how distant. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah know better than to take the Congress lightly, observes Shekhar Gupta.
We understand the electoral compulsions, the desperate need for the BJP to have at least 50 per cent of the Hindus vote for them in Uttar Pradesh in a few months. For that, you need polarisation, put your own Muslim compatriots on the 'other' side. This is how your domestic politics runs contrary to your national, strategic interest, warns Shekhar Gupta.
There seems to be no "closure" for B S Yediyurappa, the Bharatiya Janata Party's "comeback man" in Karnataka, as he could never complete a full term in office, despite becoming the chief minister four times, surmounting odds. It's also too early to write a political obituary of the 78-year old Lingayat strongman and the 24X7 politician, the face of the party in the state for decades.
The 61-year-old Bharatiya Janata Party leader was sworn in by Governor Lalji Tandon at Raj Bhawan here at 9 pm.
Cracks in the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar is frittering away the ground gained in social justice and contributing to increasing polarisation in the state, says Mohammad Sajjad.
'The BJP's all-India plans can be expected to become clearer around 2022-2023, particularly if -- as some anticipate -- the senior Congress leadership cracks, broadly as between the Nehru-Gandhi loyalists and those who may be termed 'pro-changers',' observes Arun Bhatnagar, a retired IAS officer.
A day after the Union cabinet withdrew a controversial ordinance on convicted lawmakers it had earlier cleared, yoga guru Baba Ramdev on Thursday termed the decision as "strangulation of democracy" as it was effected after condemnation by Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi.
Yeddyurappa lacks the Karnataka BJP's unqualified support and Shah knows that.
'Rahul Gandhi has personally paid a heavy price for this character assassination and remorseless ridiculing and the Congress, of course, has been demolished politically.'
'There is a compulsion to look hard, decisive, and risk-taking; start something; and then conclude it in a way you can claim victory.' 'That is not such an easy option against China,' notes Shekhar Gupta.
Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi talks about the Bihar polls with M I Khan/Rediff.com
The question is no longer whether he will win 2019; it's what he will do with the new status, says Shekhar Gupta.
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