Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower due to investor caution over rising bond yields, a weaker rupee, and fresh fuel price hikes, which have revived inflation concerns.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Stock markets closed higher on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected and proposed allowing banks to lend to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with certain prudential safeguards to deepen the financing pool for the real estate sector.
'Calibrated depreciation will help rebalance external fundamentals, offset some of the tariff differentials with competitors, improve the competitiveness of domestic substitutes vis-a-vis Chinese imports, and contribute to the easing of financial conditions at a time when the inflation rate is unusually low,' explains Sajjid Z Chinoy, head of Asia Economics at JP Morgan.
'Given the lag in transmission, further softening of lending rates may happen in the coming months.'
If the Indian government is indeed serious about reversing brain drain, it needs to put much more emphasis on research and innovation, especially in areas that will determine the future, asserts Prosenjit Datta.
As a protege of Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is expected to scale bilateral ties much higher. Trade and investment shall grow. People-to-people contacts shall be scaled up, points out Dr Rajaram Panda.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
India's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 6.3 per cent, and despite a projected moderation, the country remains one of the fastest-growing large economies, supported by resilient consumption and government spending, the United Nations has said.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. "For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas," IMF said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
United States President Donald Trump on Sunday warned of new and significantly higher tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing does not withdraw a recent 34 per cent retaliatory tariff hike, threatening to end all ongoing talks with China.
The rupee has remained largely stable against the US greenback in the current calendar year (CY 2024), depreciating by just 0.59 per cent so far. However, it has considerably weakened against the euro and pound. The local currency has depreciated by 1.6 per cent against the euro and 5.6 per cent against the pound, as both currencies strengthened against the dollar during this period.
Shigeru Ishiba is expected to prioritise strengthening Japan's military capabilities and fostering deeper international partnerships, particularly with India, with whom Japan shares significant strategic interests, explains Dr Rajaram Panda.
Vantika Agrawal, 21, is aiming to become a Grandmaster, which could happen as early as next year.
The World Bank on Tuesday raised the growth forecast for the Indian economy to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year on the back of recovery in agri sector and rural demand. World Bank had in June projected India to grow at 6.6 per cent for FY24. According to the World Bank Report released on Tuesday, India's growth continues to be strong despite a challenging global environment.
Three years after India declared its goal to become a net-zero economy by 2070, the policy design for achieving the target has begun, with the NITI Aayog forming dedicated multi-sectoral committees to prepare a transition plan. In 2021, India joined a select group of nations that set a target year for becoming net-zero carbon economy. At COP26 in Glasgow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined a five-pronged 'Panchamitra' climate action target for India and committed to a net-zero target by 2070, joining nations like the US, the UK, and China.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
US President Joe Biden attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations gala dinner in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
Two-wheeler exports from India fell by 17.8 per cent to 3.65 million units in 2022-23 (FY23), according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) on Thursday. This decline is due to a rise in global inflation and the weakening of economies and currencies in key export markets of Africa, Latin America (LatAm), and South Asia. In contrast to FY23, two-wheeler exports from India jumped 35.4 per cent to 4.44 million units in 2021-22 (FY22).
The rupee depreciated 40 paise to an all-time low of 81.93 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday as the strengthening of the American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and significant foreign fund outflows sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 81.90 against the greenback, then fell to 81.93, registering a fall of 40 paise over its previous closing.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday made a fresh push for reforms in global institutions, including the United Nations, asserting that the world's 'new realities' should be reflected in 'new global structure' as it is nature's law that those who don't change with times lose their relevance.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for 2022-23 (FY23) by 80 basis points to 7.4 per cent, citing less favourable external conditions and rapid policy tightening by the central bank. In its update to the April World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that though a global recession in 2022 was ruled out with a growth estimate of 3.2 per cent, the balance of risks was squarely to the downside, driven by a wide range of factors that could adversely affect the global economic performance. "The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall.
The resilience of many emerging markets, notably China and India, in the aftermath of the Lehman shock further strengthened this sense of manifest destiny.
Significantly, for the first time, the FATF put Myanmar in the "high risk jurisdictions subject to a call for action", often referred to as the watchdog's black list.
China's intended role for AIIB is not so different from the existing Western lenders like the World Bank.
Pakistan will remain on the 'grey list' of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) until it further demonstrates that action is being taken against Jamaat-ud-Dawah chief Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammed founder Masood Azhar who are listed as global terrorists by the United Nations, the global anti-money laundering and terror financing watchdog said on Thursday.
Reconstruction efforts after the Russia-Ukraine war will be dominated by the heft of the membership of major nations across international organisations. India is hamstrung because it does not play host to any major global institution nor does it hold positions of significant influence in the ones in which it has membership. As a result, the world's sixth largest economy is obliged to follow the rules set by most of them.
"We see the Indian economy rebounding from our projected 6.1 per cent growth this fiscal year to something like 7 per cent in the next fiscal year (2020). We see the factors that will support growth, including monetary policy stimulus, working their way through the pipeline," Jonathan Ostry, Deputy Director, Asia Pacific Department at the IMF, told reporters.
Investors turned cautious weighing weak GDP numbers and continued drop in automobile sales, bringing banking and auto sector stocks under pressure.
Indian rupee is likely to test 76-76.50 levels as a relatively strong greenback, boiling crude prices and COVID headwinds deepen the depreciation bias for the domestic currency, according to experts. One of the significantly-hit Asian currency in recent months amid uncertain economic times, rupee is expected to see a consolidation in the vicinity of the current level before being pulled towards the depreciation bias. While the equity market has been surging with occasional blips, the rupee has mostly been weak against the US dollar in recent months.
Traders expect the rupee to remain wedged between the 59.60 and 60.50 levels in the absence of any key triggers in the near-term.
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on Friday retained Pakistan on its 'grey list' for failing to check money laundering, leading to terror financing, and asked Islamabad to investigate and prosecute senior leaders and commanders of United Nations-designated terror groups, including Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar.
Shooter Esha Singh becomes youngest to donate to the PM's relief fund.
Asian Development Bank on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast for FY2019 to 5.1 per cent on slowing job prospects, rural distress exacerbated by poor harvest and credit crunch. Growth in FY2020 is likely to recover thanks to this support, low oil prices, and a weakening rupee, but risks to the projections remain tilted to the downside, it said on India.
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Rupee ends flat after hitting 9-1/2 month low.
Forex dealers said besides dollar's gains against other currencies, increased demand for the American unit from importers put pressure on the rupee, but a higher opening in the domestic equity market limited the losses.
The dollar index was down 0.01 per cent at 95.86 against a basket of six currencies in early trade
The mandates which Pakistan has failed include action against all United Nations-designated terrorists like Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Azhar, Lashker-e-Tayiba founder Hafiz Saeed and the outfit's operational commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi.
India and the US are among the countries excluded from the list of nearly 60 low-risk countries.
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