From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
The pundits said it would take days to decide the winner of the 2024 US presidential election, but by midnight Eastern on November 5, 2024, it was clear that Donald J Trump would take office as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025.
Trump supporters were delighted and delirious; Harris supporters dejected and despondent.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
As Donald Trump registered a historic comeback in the US presidential election, many former Indian diplomats on Wednesday concurred that the India-US ties will "continue to grow" from strength to strength, even as some of them cautioned that Trump is "highly unpredictable" and New Delhi will have to "wait and watch" to see what position he adopts going forward.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
Foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around $11.2 billion) from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of Chinese stocks. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024.
India is acquiring the drones primarily to crank up the surveillance apparatus of the armed forces, especially along the contested frontier with China.
As the poll projections start for the United States presidential elections, Vice President and Democrat Candidate Kamala Harris will not address supporters on Wednesday night (local time), but is expected to speak on Thursday (local time).
'The response from the police was disgusting -- they acted as the arm of the Khalistanis -- they attacked the Hindus, they did not push the Khalistanis off. They attacked the Hindus in their own mandir'
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
Chinese observers forecast that whether it is Trump or Biden, they are expected to follow tough and hardline policies towards Beijing as part of US efforts to contain the rise of China.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
The exodus of foreign investments from Indian equity markets continued unabated, with FPIs pulling out nearly Rs 20,000 crore in the last five trading sessions on higher valuations of domestic stocks and shifting their allocation to China. As a result, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in the equity market, with total outflows reaching Rs 13,401 crore for 2024 so far. Going ahead, the FPI selling trend is likely to continue in the near term till data indicate the piossibility of a trend reversal.
'The economy is clearly at a very soft spot, and earnings growth is disappointing every day.' 'After three great years, the Indian economy has hit a rough patch.'
'Accusations would be flung about his votes being stolen. He'll say dead people were voting from the grave.' Payal Singh Mohanka reports on the mood ahead of the US presidential election.
The former president claimed that subjects like immigration and inflation were covered "in great detail" both in Tuesday night's discussion with Harris and in his June debate with President Biden.
'As far as skilled immigration is concerned, the US needs Indian skills and Indian talent, and there are no two opinions about it even among US companies.'
If technical analysts are to be believed, the index has more room for a slide down to 72,000 levels in the worst-case scenario, wiping out all the gains made in 2024 so far.
Jaishankar described as a "reasonable supposition" to expect some improvement in the relations between India and China following the last round of disengagement but hesitated to say that there could be a reset of the ties.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
Trumponomics, poor growth, and high valuation certainly don't make a bullish recipe for Indian markets, warns Debashis Basu.
The trader not only predicted a Trump win but also wagered on Trump's success in both the popular vote and several key swing states.
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
The ruling Democratic Party and the opposition Republicans have deployed hundreds of attorneys and thousands of volunteers to be part of the vote-counting process and be prepared to challenge and start the legal battle if necessary.
'As we enter 2025, it must be acknowledged that there is a convergence of capital, influential people (from business and politics) and technology deciding the destiny of others in the name of pride, patriotism, nationalism, nation building, all of it thinly veiled disguises for personal profit and glory,' asserts Shyam G Menon.
If the index is unable to sustain above 24,500 levels, technically it can then slip to its 200-DMA placed at 23,365 levels.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
During the first US presidential debate, moderator Chris Wallace asked Trump about The New York Times report which revealed that Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017 and also he had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years starting in 2000.
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
Sunita and Butch did not indicate which presidential candidate -- either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris -- would get their vote.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a jibe at American singer songwriter Taylor Swift who threw her support behind Vice president Kamala Harris for the next President following a high stakes debate with former president Donald Trump.
Former United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday is cruising towards winning the race for the White House in one of the greatest political comebacks in American history by almost defeating his Democratic rival Kamala Harris in an election that virtually divided the country into two camps.
The party was floated exactly two years after Kishor had embarked on a more than 3,000-km-long 'padayatra' of the state.
In a video, announcing her candidacy for the office, Harris said, "Justice. Decency. Equality. Freedom. Democracy. These aren't just words. They're the values we as Americans cherish. And they're all on the line now. The future of our country depends on you and millions of others lifting our voices to fight for our American values. That's why I'm running for president of the United States."
Former US President Donald Trump addressed his supporters on Wednesday, thanking them for giving Republicans an unprecedented and powerful mandate, and said this moment will help the country "heal".
Kamala has finessed bubblegum conversation about whether she is Black or Indian. Her Irrelevancing-approach, an Irrelevance-code if you will, is Elevated and Elegant -- this is the Elevance of Kamala! asserts economist Dr Anuradha Luther Maitra.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden will have a substantive engagement on the sidelines of the Quad summit on Saturday, and the two sides will sign at least two agreements following the talks.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
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