The delayed timing of J&K Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha's admission has more to do with deflecting the thrust of the Opposition attack on the prime minister and Union home minister during the monsoon session of Parliament, points out Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
New Delhi looks to be testing Omar's endurance with unconcealed glee, never feeling shy to bite whenever a moment comes its way. After all, ruling the country's only Muslim-majority UT/state has been the BJP's burning desire, points out Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
The dastardly dimensions of the attack are gradually sinking in even as the Government of India announced its immediate diplomatic and other retaliatory measures. It is generally expected to be followed up with punitive military action across the LoC, sooner than later, observes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
There is a limit to ignoring genuine aspirations of the people and suppressing their legitimate voice in running the affairs of the state, notes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
Pressure is mounting for a resolution to be moved in the assembly when it meets next week for its maiden sitting to demand 'restoration of Article 370 and Article 35A' as committed in the National Conference's election manifesto, reveals Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
Every trick in the trade is being tried unabashedly.
In simple arithmetical terms every possible 'arrangement' is being made to deny a majority to its rivals. A split verdict would hand a vital advantage to the BJP which is adept at extracting the best out of such a situation, notes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
The PDP looks a distant third in the race, observes Mohammed Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir politics.
'With all outlets of public expression virtually choked for the last five years, suppressed anger and frustration is looking for an opening via the ballot box.' 'There is no escape from the inevitability of the 'Engineer Rashid' factor surfacing in a big enough way to upset everyone's applecart,' alerts Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the veteran commentator on Kashmir affairs.
'If, as happened in Baramulla during the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the youth in the Valley get triggered enough to jump into the wider fray, the end result would be difficult to predict, especially as the state's post-August 5, 2019 political format remains substantially fragmented and foggy,' points out Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the veteran commentator on Kashmir affairs.
Those familiar with intricate Kashmir politics do not rule out further delay in the assembly elections. Primarily, because the BJP having 'invested' so much for so long in Kashmir would try its best to wait a little longer if only to secure the 'gains' it believes to have achieved after its deafening action on August 5, 2019, points out Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the veteran commentator on Kashmir affairs.
For the last four years since abrogation of Article 370, Kashmir-based political parties have been struggling to forge an alternate narrative to the one forcibly snatched from them. The BJP is bound to go hammer and tongs at them now that their armoury is reinforced with the Supreme Court judgment, notes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the veteran commentator on Kashmir affairs.
The impression in the valley that Kashmir is not only 'expendable' for buttressing New Delhi's partisan interests, but also a preferred choice to do so, is getting strengthened, feels veteran Kashmir commentator Mohammad Sayeed Malik.
The chain of events set off by 'August 9, 1953' has swept away many illusions, demolished quite a few landmarks and woven an altogether new tapestry of the Centre-state relationship, says Mohammad Sayeed Malik.
Restoration of peace and the normal routine of daily life, compared to the past, stands out as its most significant achievement, observes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the veteran commentator on Kashmir affairs, four years after the abrogation of Article 370.
As of now, Azad couldn't be in the BJP leadership's calculus. The BJP has been trying to drill into the J&K electorate that this time around the UT would most certainly have a Hindu chief minister, explains Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
The political script for pre-2019 politics has gone with the wind and the writers of the new script seem in no great hurry to oblige the tormented, observes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
At the moment, there appears to be no alternative political narrative to the one lying buried under the debris of havoc caused on this front by the fallout of 'August 5, 2019', asserts Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
The sectarian killings by hit-and-run groups have revived and sharpened communal fears among the victims while the Poonch encounter reveals how deep the terrorists have dug in without getting noticed in the porous border area, notes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
>All old signposts have been uprooted and milestones bulldozed. New ones have yet to emerge. The old order stands degraded in the new landscape whose contours are indistinct, observes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
If Mehbooba is 'allowed' to survive unchecked she could transform her campaign into a sentiment typically suited to the ground conditions in Kashmir, observes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
'The spirit of religious faith in Kashmir is inclusive.' 'There an inclusiveness of Islam in Kashmir.' 'An ordinary Kashmiri can be a political fundamentalist, but he can never be a religious fundamentalist.'
The high table might have yielded relief at personal levels, but its political implications look forbidding at this point in time, observes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
The festering dispute over the accession of Jammu and Kashmir stands out as one of the world's most volatile fault lines that divides regions, countries, societies, communities and ethnic groups, notes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs, on Sheikh Abdullah's 39th death anniversary.
'This election was the first opportunity where Kashmiris told the world they do not agree with the Centre's policies and are unhappy about their disempowerment.'
Kashmir's youth are being radicalised. The once-alienated separatists are ready to return to their old haunting ground. The ruling PDP-BJP coalition finds itself on the defensive over almost every issue of governance.
'Bukhari's case falls into that rare category where the precise determination of the killer as well as the motive can only be guessed vaguely, not determined with certainty,' says Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished doyen of the Kashmiri media.
'Although the tactical move to outflank the BJP fell through with New Delhi's decisive intervention and eventual dissolution of the state assembly, the PDP, NC and the Congress appeared to be more than satisfied.' 'They see the assembly dissolution as their 'great achievement'.' 'If one were to believe what they say, this was also their main objective,' reveals Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the doyen of Kashmiri commentators.
However, not an inch of movement has taken place on the implementation of the 'Agenda of Alliance', the manifesto of the PDP-BJP coalition government. Unless the BJP plays ball, the PDP will be in serious trouble, warns Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the veteran commentator on Kashmir affairs.
'And the old war horse has left nothing to chance. He campaigned vigorously in the by-election defying his age,' says Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir.
'Dulat's professional successors in the game would now find it that much harder to access/create meaningful sources/assets needed for effective functioning in a place like Kashmir. By blowing their cover the former top spy has undone whatever he might have been able to add to his organisation's resource kitty.'
'Victory it was, but for the students, parents and society at large, who, together, showed that all was not lost, after all,' says Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
'From what I know of her,' says Mohammad Sayeed Malik -- the distinguished doyen of Kashmir commentators -- 'Mehbooba will not take too long to recover.' 'How much room she can then find to maneuver in the valley's extremely harsh political climate only time can tell.'
'Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti acted single-mindedly right from day one of the three month-long crisis.' 'She pursued her chosen administrative course, unmindful of the menacing jingoistic drum beating in the coalition backyard.' 'At one point, I asked her if she was willing to pay the price for taking her line of action to its logical conclusion.' '"Yes," was her spontaneous response,' reveals Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir.
'As of now, this one move seems to have precariously altered the balance of forces on the volatile ground, between separatists and the mainstream. 'The landscape today presents a fearsome picture of the future of mainstream politics in Kashmir. 'Conversely, the separatist ideology looks to have got an unearned boost,' points out Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the veteran commentator on Kashmir affairs
'New Delhi's total disengagement virtually scripted the course of events, entailing unpredictable long range consequences,' says Mohammad Sayeed Malik.
'Her tussle is a different ballgame from what it was when Farooq Abdullah and Rajiv Gandhi were the main players at the two ends of the power game.' 'The shadow of the party in power in New Delhi over J&K affairs in 1987 was not as menacing as it is in 2018,' points out Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the doyen of Kashmir commentators.
'When those who took oath in the name of the Indian Constitution are not acceptable, where do the other Kashmiris stand?'
The PDP is the front-runner in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly polls. The ruling National Conference and the Congress will be lucky to reach double figures.
'The first clear cut call for 'engagement with all stake holders including separatists' came, not from the political class but the men in uniform,' points out Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished observer on Kashmir.
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