India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record 3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of 1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.
The government plans to expand its central bank digital currency (CBDC)-based food subsidy programme to Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu by June, following its implementation on a pilot basis in Gujarat and Puducherry, official sources said.
India's fertiliser subsidy bill is projected to increase by approximately 70,000 crore, reaching around 2.41 trillion in FY27, primarily due to rising import costs exacerbated by the ongoing West Asia crisis.
A former scheduled caste promoter of the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation was arrested in connection with an alleged Rs 75 lakh subsidy fraud under a self-employment scheme for women of the marginalised community.
Election-related freebies and populist measures are other factors crimping the revenue profile of these states.
India's fertiliser subsidy bill for the current financial year (FY27) is projected to increase by approximately 20% due to surging global prices, primarily driven by the West Asia crisis, a senior official confirmed. Despite this, retail prices for urea and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) will remain unchanged, ensuring adequate supply for the kharif season.
A former industries extension officer in Thiruvananthapuram has been arrested by the Vigilance and Anti-Corruption Bureau (VACB) for allegedly misappropriating Rs 3.57 crore from a self-employment scheme for women. The officer, Praveen Raj T R, is also implicated in two other similar cases involving significant amounts.
Two men in Bengaluru have been arrested for allegedly defrauding people by offering electric vehicles at subsidised rates under a fake central government scheme.
Pakistan has increased its defence budget by 17.6 per cent to PKRs 3,000 billion for the upcoming fiscal year, as announced by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. The federal budget, estimated at PKRs 18,771 billion, targets 4 per cent GDP growth, with significant allocations for debt service and pensions. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif highlighted economic stability and ongoing discussions with the IMF, while the opposition protested Imran Khan's incarceration during the budget session.
Eighteen of India's 28 states exceeded the fiscal deficit ceiling of 3 per cent of GSDP in FY25, a deterioration comparable to the Covid year of 2020-21, according to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). The report also noted a decline in states reporting a revenue surplus, with Bihar, Mizoram, and Telangana moving into deficit.
The Indian government is set to accelerate reforms, including measures to enhance foreign direct investment, speed up divestment, and boost asset monetisation, to maintain economic growth despite rising fuel and fertiliser import costs driven by the West Asia crisis.
Governments should move away from universal subsidies towards tightly targeted transfers, backed by stricter eligibility norms, sunset clauses and periodic audits to curb leakages and improve spending efficiency, a joint study by Asian Development Bank and PwC has recommended.
Global oil prices fell on Thursday to their lowest levels since before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, offering a significant economic tailwind for India, the world's third-largest crude importer, by easing inflation risks, reducing the import bill and improving the government's fiscal position.
The remarkable rise of smallcaps reflects the emergence of a broad set of specialised businesses operating in industries where the sectoral tailwinds remain considerably stronger than macroeconomic headwinds, points out Debashis Basu.
The World Bank has increased India's economic growth projection for FY27 to 6.6 per cent, citing resilient domestic demand, while simultaneously cutting its global economic growth outlook due to the conflict in West Asia.
Maharashtra BJP MLC Pravin Darekar announced the launch of 'Devabhau' and 'Chhava' cooperative taxi services in Mumbai, aiming to counter private aggregators and benefit drivers directly, but the scheme has drawn sharp criticism from social activist Anjali Damania and the Opposition Congress over the proposed use of Mumbai Bank funds and its political branding.
American industry groups sought punitive tariffs on Indian goods at USTR hearings, while Indian officials defended the country's manufacturing growth as demand-led and WTO-compliant.
India's electric vehicle market is experiencing an unprecedented boom with a 37 per cent increase in new entrants, driven by supportive policies and infrastructure.
The Indian central government has reduced its total expenditure by approximately 60,000 crore in FY26, below its revised estimate, to successfully achieve the fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the latest data from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a record surplus transfer of Rs 2.87 trillion to the central government for FY26, driven by increased income and an expanded balance sheet, despite a reduction in the contingent risk buffer (CRB) to 6.5 per cent.
On Agri Stack, Expenditure Secy V Vualnam says it's progressing well; using IT, farmers will be able to choose exact fertiliser quantities needed, reducing crowding at fertiliser outlets.
India is already a heavyweight in global farm trade in pockets such as rice exports, but experts are urging a pivot from a subsidy- and procurement-driven mindset to a productivity and nutrition strategy that still shields farmers from volatility.
Amid the arithmetic of subsidies, consumption and capacity, whichever government assumes office in Tamil Nadu after May 4 is likely to inherit a growing debate over how far the state can continue to expand welfare promises without placing additional strain on public finances and the power sector.
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have been fiscally stressed for a considerable period of time, and there are no easy ways to mobilise revenues to meet the cost of the promised freebies, particularly in the prevailing difficult economic scenario, points out M Govinda Rao.
India's economy registered a robust 7.7 per cent growth in the fiscal year 2025-26, an increase from 7.1 per cent in the previous year, with the January-March quarter alone seeing a 7.8 per cent expansion.
But when it comes to e2W, China is the dominant player and had grabbed over 76 per cent share of total e2W imports in 2025 with brands like Yadea, NIU and Sunra dominating the market.
Indian oil marketing companies are incurring significant losses, selling petrol at a Rs 14 per litre loss and diesel at Rs 18 per litre, as elevated global crude oil prices, exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, outpace capped retail fuel rates, according to rating agency Icra.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
'Unfortunately, today most ministers are busy with either election duty or praising duty. They are not interested in serving duty.' 'Ministers have become relaxed like retired people still holding onto jobs.' 'Look at how the NEET paper leaked. But there is no accountability.' 'After 12 years, they have become saturated. They are short of ideas.'
If TVK MLAs and ministers are perceived as clean, or demonstrably cleaner than their predecessors, the credibility dividend will be enormous. The voter will feel rewarded, points out Ramesh Menon.
India's electric two-wheeler (e2W) manufacturers have urged the government to extend subsidies under the PM E-Drive (Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement) scheme beyond March 2026, cautioning that a withdrawal could slow near-term demand even as confidence in long-term electric mobility adoption remains intact.
The ongoing West Asia conflict is expected to severely impact the supply of affordable housing in India, as rising input costs further erode already thin developer margins. Fluctuations in crude oil and gas prices, coupled with higher freight costs, are driving up prices of essential construction materials like cement and steel, making new projects increasingly unviable for developers.
The government is identifying households with both liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and piped natural gas (PNG) connections to enforce a ban on dual ownership, aiming to curb misuse and better target subsidies amid global energy supply disruptions.
Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh, director, Delhi School of Economics.
India's state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) are projected to incur under-recoveries of approximately Rs 80,000 crore on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales in FY27 if current loss levels persist, according to rating agency Icra.
A downsizing in the prime minister's convoy was implemented in his recent domestic visits, official sources said.
India's fiscal deficit is projected to reach 4.5 per cent of GDP for the current fiscal year, exceeding the budgeted target, as the government's policy responses to the West Asia conflict are expected to strain public finances, according to research firm BMI.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Joseph Vijay has launched three key schemes focusing on electricity subsidies, women's safety, and drug eradication, fulfilling his election promises after his party's recent victory.
The conflict may disrupt Budget 2026-2027 projections, squeezing revenues and raising subsidies, prompting fiscal adjustments and potential reforms, echoing lessons from the Covid-era shock, points out A K Bhattacharya.
