The southwest monsoon has officially set over Kerala, albeit delayed from its typical June 1 start. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall for the season, expecting around 90% of the long-period average, primarily due to the emerging El Nino conditions.
The India Meteorological Department forecasts the southwest monsoon to arrive in Kerala in the next two to three days, slightly delayed from the typical June 1 start. The department also predicts below-normal rainfall for the season due to emerging El Nino conditions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the June-September southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be 90 per cent of the long-period average. While the Northeast is likely to witness normal rainfall, the remaining parts of the country may see below normal rainfall.
The IMD is predicting close to a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, which means there is a strong possibility that the monsoon this year will be poor.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economic growth to slow to 6.6 per cent in FY27, down from 7.7 per cent in FY26, citing energy stress and a potential sub-par monsoon.
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As Mumbai grapples with rising temperatures and humidity, many slum dwellers are spending their nights on Versova beach to escape the unbearable heat in their poorly ventilated homes, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting a gradual rise in temperatures before a decline, and a yellow alert for isolated rainfall.
A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a significant decline for the third consecutive day, with the Sensex tumbling 1,092 points and Nifty closing below 24,550. This downturn was primarily driven by the India Meteorological Department's forecast of a below-normal southwest monsoon and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire arrangement.
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India is likely to witness a mixed temperature pattern along with wetter-than-usual conditions in May, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that rainfall across the country is "most likely to be above normal" at over 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
'During the hot season (April to June), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except in some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, where minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal,' IMD said.
'Monsoon is the pran (life) of our water system.' 'A weak monsoon will have a very negative impact on crops and people's lives.'
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below normal monsoon rains for India this year, citing the potential emergence of El Nino conditions. This could significantly impact the country's agriculture-dependent economy.
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Above-normal cold wave days are expected in some areas of central India, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during January 2026.
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The record monsoon rains across India during the June to September months was 937.2 millimetres, the 5th-highest since 2001 and 38th-highest since 1901.
This would be due to early monsoon onset, abundant precipitation in the soil and the government's higher minimum support price (MSP) for farmers, the USDA said in its assessment.
Data since 2005 show that the five years with the highest rainfall saw average market returns of 8.98 per cent, while the five driest years returned 25.7 per cent on average.
Skymet expects a good monsoon over western and southern India.
Heatwave may abate over most parts of North India in next two days; temperatures likely to drop by 2-3C.
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The last time the southwest monsoon arrived earlier than in 2025 -- that is, back in 2009 -- the rains lost steam after the early onset and ended the season with almost 23 per cent deficient rainfall, which was the lowest recorded average rainfall in several decades over India.
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Automobile retail sales in India rose around 5 per cent year-on-year in June with all vehicle segments, including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, witnessing growth, Federation of Automotive Dealers Associations (FADA) said on Monday.
The early onset of the southwest monsoon brought continuous rainfall across southern and eastern India, contributing to this record.
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The IMD said India did not experience any "break monsoon" conditions this year because of the large number of low-pressure systems.
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Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the 2024-25 financial year (Q1FY25) dipped to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a drop in output of some crops following heatwave in the main growing months. Low post-monsoon rains, which dried most of the reservoirs in several states across the country, also impacted the production of many crops. At current prices, the growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent as against 4.1 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a spike in food inflation during the April to June months of FY25.
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India has received 20 per cent less rainfall since the start of the monsoon period on June 1, with the rain-bearing system making no significant progress between June 12 and 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
It expects rainfall to be about 106 per cent of the long period average, aided by La Nia conditions anticipated to play a role in the second half of the monsoon season.
