'Nearly two-thirds of Maharashtra has been drought-prone on and off, and climate change is making it worse.'
'Without that one critical irrigation, the entire crop can be lost.'
Despite the looming threat of El Nio and drought conditions in several states, the Indian government has set an ambitious foodgrain production target of 373.93 million tonnes (mt) for the 2026-27 crop year, slightly lower than the previous year's actual output but higher than its target.
This was the fourth-lowest rainfall since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901, under the impact of El Niño.
The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from India, while the northeast monsoon has commenced in southern regions, bringing a wet spell. This year's southwest monsoon saw a rainfall deficit, largely attributed to the strengthening El Nino conditions, which are expected to persist until February 2027 and could become the strongest since 1950.
India's Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra has warned that the upcoming rabi (winter) crop season is likely to be challenging for rainfed areas due to the strengthening El Nio weather pattern, potentially affecting foodgrain production. This comes as Maharashtra declares drought in nearly 74 per cent of its talukas, highlighting the immediate impact of climate change.
Rainfall during the monsoon season so far, from June 1 to September 13, has been 15 per cent below normal.
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has commenced its three-day meeting, with a majority of economists and bankers anticipating a 25 basis point rate hike to counter escalating inflation risks, particularly from West Asia conflicts.
The Maharashtra government has declared 265 out of 358 talukas as drought-affected, covering 74% of the state, due to significant rainfall deficit. This declaration activates 'Trigger-1' of the state's drought management framework, leading to the announcement of various relief measures for farmers and residents, including loan restructuring, revenue concessions, and provisions for water and fodder.
Hyundai Motor India is set to outpace the broader passenger vehicle market, projecting an 8-10 per cent domestic sales growth in H2FY27, fueled by strategic launches of a new mid-size SUV and a dedicated electric vehicle, alongside increased production capacity.
India has exhausted 58.04 per cent of its FY27 fertiliser subsidy budget in under five months, primarily due to a significant surge in global urea prices following the conflict in West Asia, necessitating potential additional government expenditure.
The Indian government has identified 111 districts as 'most vulnerable' to crop damage due to a 43 per cent monsoon deficit, driven by El Nino, which threatens kharif sowing. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated that weak monsoon conditions are expected to persist until July 2, prompting contingency plans and recommendations for alternative, less water-intensive crops.
The Centre has reviewed the monsoon situation, noting a reduced rainfall deficit and ongoing preparedness for the kharif season amidst El Nino concerns. A high-level meeting chaired by the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister discussed measures across various sectors, emphasising continuous monitoring and coordinated action to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and essential commodities.
Indian stock markets this week will be primarily influenced by a series of corporate Q1 earnings, the evolving geopolitical situation in West Asia, and fluctuations in crude oil prices, according to market analysts.
A farmer in Maharashtra received a message indicating a one-paisa credit instead of the expected Rs 2,000 under the PM-Kisan scheme, causing confusion. The Agriculture Department later clarified it was a technical error and the full instalment had been successfully processed.
Change of guard in some states and evolving El Nino dynamics are triggering fresh actions on raging water-sharing disputes in several states.
After a subdued start, the southwest monsoon has gathered pace since the beginning of July, narrowing the cumulative rainfall deficit from nearly 30 per cent on June 30 to around 15 per cent as of July 8.
The Indian stock market's trajectory this week will be significantly influenced by crude oil prices, global market trends, and the commencement of the corporate earnings season, with IT major TCS set to announce its June-quarter results on July 9.
15 ships carrying essential raw materials successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over agricultural input availability.
ITC reported a 16.2 per cent year-on-year drop in consolidated net profit to 4,394.13 crore in Q1 FY27, primarily due to a significant increase in taxes on its cigarette business. Consolidated net revenues also declined by 11.1 per cent to 19,114 crore, missing analyst estimates.
"Rather than worrying, preparation is required. Contingency plans will be made for affected districts and crop changes will be considered wherever necessary"
With the southwest monsoon stalled over southern Maharashtra, India is facing a nationwide rainfall deficit of 41 percent between June 4 and June 18, according to the latest India meteorological department (IMD) data.
The Indian government has issued a stern warning to industrial users who are reportedly procuring cheaper retail fuel instead of industrial-grade fuel, leading to significant losses for state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) and potential local shortages. This diversion, driven by a substantial price difference between retail and bulk diesel, is adversely impacting OMCs, which are absorbing daily losses of approximately 550 crore to keep retail prices stable.
India's automobile retail sales surged by 21.83 per cent year-on-year in June, reaching 25,57,234 units, marking the best June ever recorded across all segments, according to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA).
India's total automobile retail sales recorded a significant 9.55 per cent year-on-year growth in May, reaching an all-time high of 25,31,067 units, driven by strong performances in three-wheelers, passenger vehicles, and tractors, despite prevailing heatwave conditions and fuel price pressures.
India's fertiliser subsidy bill is projected to increase by approximately 70,000 crore, reaching around 2.41 trillion in FY27, primarily due to rising import costs exacerbated by the ongoing West Asia crisis.
The Odisha vigilance department apprehended two government officers on Wednesday for accepting bribes in separate incidents. An Assistant Civil Supplies Officer in Keonjhar district was caught taking Rs 15,000, while a junior engineer with the National Health Mission in Sundargarh was caught taking Rs 5,000.
India's fertiliser subsidy bill for the current financial year (FY27) is projected to increase by approximately 20% due to surging global prices, primarily driven by the West Asia crisis, a senior official confirmed. Despite this, retail prices for urea and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) will remain unchanged, ensuring adequate supply for the kharif season.
Fuel prices have risen by about Rs 7.5 per litre since May 15, as global crude oil prices surged due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia and supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that India's economy is projected to return to a 7 per cent-plus growth trajectory by 2027-28 (FY28), or sooner if external conditions improve, despite near-term challenges from the West Asia crisis.
Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini released over 2,115 crore directly into the bank accounts of beneficiaries under various welfare schemes, benefiting over 58 lakh eligible individuals.
India is likely to witness a mixed temperature pattern along with wetter-than-usual conditions in May, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that rainfall across the country is "most likely to be above normal" at over 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
Overall profitability in the agriculture sector is expected to be marginally higher at the pan-India level in the 2024-25 kharif season, driven largely by higher production and low input cost, but offset by the declining price of some produce, according to a report released by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd on Wednesday. The report said that region-wise farm profitability in the northern belt was expected to be relatively better than in the southern belt, while the eastern and western belts presented a mixed bag.
Dabur India's stock has fallen over 17 per cent since the start of the Iran war, driven by concerns over a weak monsoon, the West Asian crisis, and rising input costs, which are expected to impact the company's revenues and margins, particularly affecting its significant rural sales and international markets.
A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
Modi said that the West Asia crisis has been going on now for more than three weeks and is having a very adverse impact on the global economy and on people's lives. He said the entire world is urging all parties for the earliest resolution of this crisis.
India addresses the escalating conflict in West Asia, outlining its diplomatic efforts to ensure energy security, the safety of its citizens, and advocating for a peaceful resolution through dialogue.
Releasing the first advanced estimate, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said that though excessive rainfall affected crops in some areas of the country, most parts have benefited significantly from a good monsoon, leading to overall good crop growth.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces increased domestic LPG production to offset import disruptions caused by Middle East tensions, alongside assurances of fertiliser availability and the clearing of UPA-era oil bonds.
