The Indian economy could remain less affected by global trade wars than other countries because the two engines of domestic growth - consumption and investment - are likely to face a limited impact from such headwinds, according to an article on the 'State of the Economy' in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) bulletin, released on Tuesday.
A 6-7 million tonnes shortfall in rice production due to a fall in paddy sowing area is likely to keep rice prices at elevated levels, adding to the inflationary pressure that the slowing economy is already grappling with. Elevated food prices, including that of cereals, had led to retail inflation reversing a three-month declining trend, to touch 7 per cent in August. Similarly, the wholesale price inflation, which declined to 11-month low, also showed price pressures from cereals resulting from wheat output being impacted by severe heat waves in some parts of the country.
According to latest data, crops have been sown in around 72.13 million hectares, which is 8.90 per cent less than the same period last year.
The varieties will take at least 4 to 5 years to reach farmers after they complete the usual cycle of breeder, foundation and certified seeds.
India's rice production could fall by 10-12 million tonnes during the Kharif season of this year, due to a fall in paddy sowing area, the government said on Friday. However, food secretary Sudhanshu Pandey asserted that the country will have surplus production in rice. He pointed out that the paddy acreage is lower by 38 lakh hectare so far this kharif season, because of less rains in many states.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Wednesday said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. The agency, however, maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent on expectations of a pick up in economic activity in the second half of the fiscal.
Domestic rating agency ICRA on Monday said Indian companies are likely to clock 7-8 per cent revenue growth during the March quarter of the current fiscal year, led by revival in rural demand and uptick in government spending. ICRA expects the private capital expenditure (capex) cycle to remain measured in view of the uncertainties around geopolitical developments and relatively subdued outlook on merchandise exports from India.
However, the estimates could change in the coming months, as full impact of excess rainfall and floods on the standing soybean and urad crops in central and western India in late August and September has not yet been fully taken into account.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected retail inflation at 4.2 percent for the next financial year beginning April while retaining the forecast for 2024-25 at 4.8 percent. The central bank attributed the expected easing of inflation to good kharif production, winter-easing in vegetable prices and favorable rabi crop prospects. However, the RBI also noted that continued uncertainty in global financial markets coupled with volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events presents upside risks to the inflation trajectory.
India's economy is projected to grow between 6.3 per cent and 6.8 per cent in FY26, according to the Economic Survey 2024-25, tabled in Parliament on Friday. The survey highlights that the country's economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by a stable external account, fiscal consolidation, and private consumption. It noted that the government plans to strengthen long-term industrial growth by focusing on research and development (R&D), micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and capital goods.
As the kharif season is setting in, India is scrambling to source fertilisers from the international market. It is set to sign long-term contracts - especially with Morocco and Latin American countries - to ensure steady flow of supplies. "We have to source fertilisers wherever it is available because crops have to be secured.
Private consumption is back driven by festive spending, and the medium-term economic outlook remains bullish as the innate strength of the macro-fundamentals reasserts itself, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Wednesday. Global economic activity remained resilient during Q4:2024 amidst fragile confidence and rising protectionism, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the November Bulletin.
'As the Budget has taken some measures to spur growth, similar action from the MPC may be expected.'
Normally, kharif sowing of vegetable seeds starts during the first week of May across the country. Farmers start preparing their fields to make them suitable for kharif sowing during the second fortnight of April. Now, however, faced with the lockdown, farmers are in a hurry to clear their fields of rabi crop and prepare for kharif planting. With a normal monsoon forecast this year, they are doing all they can to take advantage of pre-monsoon showers.
Data from department of agriculture showed that kharif crops had been sown in around 31.56 million hectares till Friday, which was 104.25 per cent more than the same period last year. Acreage of almost all crops was higher than last year.
The sowing area under pulses went up by 7 per cent to 132.56 lakh hectare, against 124.15 lakh hectare area.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) delivered a stronger-than-expected operational performance in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25), driven by solid growth in its automotive (auto) and farm equipment segments. Higher volumes improved operating leverage, expanding margins.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
Though agriculture ministry officials are confident of a bumper harvest due to record increase in kharif acreage, experts and farmers said the on-ground situation in some crops is not that encouraging as incessant rains since the last few weeks and pest attack could impact the final yield.
The government on Wednesday raised the minimum support price (MSP) for paddy by 5.35 per cent to Rs 2,300 per quintal for the 2024-25 kharif marketing season. The hike in paddy support price comes despite the government sitting on surplus rice stocks, but it is significant ahead of elections in states like Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi.
Monsoon is back in almost all the rain-starved areas of the peninsula, Maharashtra and parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. As a result, there has been a dramatic change in the overall kharif crop outlook.
Till July 26, kharif crops have been sown in around 68.87 million hectares, which is 6.43 per cent lower than the area covered during the same period last year.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the retail inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for fiscal 2024-25, with Governor Shaktikanta Das stressing that the central bank will have to closely monitor the price situation and keep the "inflation horse" under tight leash lest it may bolt again. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, the Governor also said the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has completed 8 years since its introduction in 2016 and is a major structural reform of the 21st century in India.
Overall, volume growth is likely to be in the range of 3-8 per cent for two-wheelers and 5-7 per cent for passenger vehicles owing to healthy demand from urban and rural areas and pending order books.
Wholesale price based inflation declined to a 3-month low of 1.89 per cent in November on cheaper food items, and experts predicted a 0.25 per cent interest rate cut by the RBI in the policy review in February. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.36 per cent in October 2024. It was 0.39 per cent in November, last year. In August, 2024, it was 1.25 per cent.
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
Retail sales of vehicles across categories in India grew by 11.21 per cent at 32,08,719 units in November, as compared to 28,85,317 units in the same month last year riding on two-wheeler demand, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations said in Monday. Retail sales of two-wheelers were at 26,15,953 units last month, as compared to 22,58,970 units in November 2023, a growth of 15.8 per cent buoyed by the festive spillover.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
The government on Wednesday increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat by Rs 150 to Rs 2,425 per quintal for the 2025-26 marketing season, a move that comes ahead of key state elections. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved price hikes for six rabi crops, with increases ranging from Rs 130 to Rs 300 per quintal for the 2025-26 marketing season beginning April 2025. "Like for kharif crops, there is a significant increase in the MSP for rabi crops," Information and Broadcasting Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said in a media briefing after the Cabinet meeting.
'Inflation is not good for industry. Nor for the economy as a whole.'
The government's subsidised onion sale initiative, launched on September 5, has led to price drops in major cities within days, the consumer affairs ministry said on Saturday. In Delhi, retail onion price fell from Rs 60 to Rs 55 per kg, while Mumbai saw a decrease from Rs 61 to Rs 56 per kg. In Chennai, the retail price reduced from Rs 65 to Rs 58 per kg, the ministry said in a statement.
Till June 30, the southwest monsoon was 33 per cent lower than normal, which is among the worst in the last five years, with 28 of the 36 meteorological divisions recording deficient rain.
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said the fundamental drivers of the Indian economy are gaining momentum and the country is moving on a sustainable growth path. In the inaugural address at FIBAC 2024, the governor said that massive changes are taking shape in various economic sectors and markets, and the country is geared for orbital shifts.
The government on Friday scrapped a minimum price threshold that it had set previously for exports of onion as it looked to pass on the benefit of international glut to Indian farmers. The government had previously fixed a $550 per tonne as the minimum export price (MEP), which essentially meant farmers could not sell their produce overseas at lower than this rate.
The Centre on Thursday began the first phase of retail sales of onion at a subsidised rate of Rs 35 per kg to provide relief to Delhi-NCR and Mumbai consumers from rising prices of the kitchen staple. NCCF and NAFED, which are maintaining a buffer stock of 4.7 lakh tonne onion on behalf of the government, will undertake the retail sale through their own stores and mobile vans. Onion will be sold at 38 retail points in Delhi-NCR and Parel and Malad in Mumbai.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) State of the Economy report for October acknowledged a slowdown in some high-frequency indicators but expressed confidence in a recovery, aided by consumption demand during the festival season. "In India, aggregate demand is poised to shrug off the temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25 as festival demand picks up pace and consumer confidence improves," said the report released on Monday.
Soybean is trading at a 25 per cent premium to the MSP, after initially slipping below the government's threshold procurement price of Rs 2,850 a quintal.
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