Should the ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu not make the required five out of 22 by-election seats, or even otherwise, the temptation to poach, especially from the Congress or starting with the Congress may be high on Chief Minister Edappadi K Palanisami's agenda, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
If the Congress lost in Tamil Nadu in 1967, never to return, or the DMK and the AIADMK have kept their place in power and electoral politics since then, it owes not to their love or hatred for gods or for one religion over another. Instead, they had always been linked to performance and incumbency/anti-incumbency factors. There may be something in such constructs for Rajini's strategic team to consider, especially if the superstar is to enter direct politics by around this time next year. But then, they would need to brush up their homework more than at present, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The question is not if Vijay would enter politics. Instead, it is about his chances of success, if any, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Given the subdued pre-poll voter-behaviour in the state over the past couple of decades and more, and the inability of individual political parties to cobble together an alliance and announce candidates, or both, to launch grassroots-level campaigns early on, close fights with landslide victory is an equal possibility, N Sathiyamoorthy.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who turned 64 on Wednesday, arrived in Gandhinagar to seek his mother's blessings.
The Bharatiya Janata Party on Thursday announced the formation of a seven-party rainbow alliance for the April 24 Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu, in its first-ever such electoral venture in the state where the turf has been largely dominated by Dravida Munetra Kazhagam and All India Anna Dravida Munetra Kazhagam.
A total of 553 crorepatis are in the fray in the Tamil Nadu elections to be held this month, while 283 have declared criminal cases against themselves, a report said on Tuesday.
Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin does not face any threat to his full-fledged succession as DMK chief, just now. If he were to face any threat, it would only be against 'non-performance' as the party boss, N Sathiya Moorthy.
More than 5.79 crore voters will seal the fate of 3,740 aspirants including arch rivals Chief Minister Jayalalithaa and Dravida Munnetra Kazagham president M Karunanidhi, as the stage is set for polling in 233 assembly seats in Tamil Nadu under tight vigil on Monday.
With DMK's M K Stalin coming into his own, and the rival AIADMK too leaving no space for third parties, Tamil Nadu will remain a Dravidian stronghold for a long time, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Results coming out of Lok Sabha polls show that parties like Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party and Tamil Nadu's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam managed to corner a large number of votes but failed to convert them into seats, while parties with lesser vote share have got seats to show in their kitty.
The presence of Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa was not the only reason why Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa stayed away from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The exit poll results were released at the end of the polling in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, marking the closure of voting in four states and Puducherry.
Both Rajini and Kamal have to first convince the Tamil Nadu voters that even if they are entering active politics relatively late in life, they are here to stay, and are serious about politics, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
If Tamil Nadu is to avoid a hung assembly, it is up to the silent voters, whose combined strength is more than that of the two major combines in the fray, says N Sathiyamoorthy.
The last leg of poll campaign saw many national leaders canvassing for their parties.
As the mercury keeps moving up in the wake of rising temperature, poll fever is also soaring northward in Tamil Nadu which will witness a fierce fight for the 39 Lok Sabha seats between ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, even as a six-party BJP-led alliance is trying to play spoilsport.
For Stalin and the DMK, the declaration was the essence of the commencement of seat-sharing talks with the Congress, and even more, the launch of their combined campaign for the LS polls. That meant the DMK had to send out a message also to the 'minorities' in the state, who had deserted the DMK and very badly at that in the critical, post-Jaya R K Nagar assembly bypolls last year, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Expressing anguish over India's decision to participate in the upcoming CHOGM in Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu Assembly today passed a resolution at its emergent session demanding "complete boycott" of the summit, as Congress and two other parties kept away from voting.
Tamil Nadu's politics returns to being bi-polar, and that's a good thing, says B Srikumar.
While Bharatiya Janata Party's countrywide vote share shot up by over 12 per cent at the expense of other parties, the chart throws some contrary pictures as parties like Bahujan Samaj Party got no seat in spite of third-highest vote share, but Trinamool Congress and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam clinched over 30 seats each with less than 4 per cent vote share.
The DMK combine has won 37 of the 38 LS constituencies in Tamil Nadu, and bagged 13 of the 22 assembly bypolls. What swept away the AIADMK-BJP alliance in the southern state was not dravidian ideology but job loss and graft bias, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tamil Nadu Governor K Rosaiah on Friday accepted the resignation of Chief Minister O Panneerselvam and invited All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief Jayalalithaa to form the new government.
A senior political commentator has said that Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha is the modern 'Mahishasur Mardini' who has taken birth to trounce the Congress in Tamil Nadu.
Calculated or otherwise, if Azhagiri's firing of the first salvo after Karunanidhi's death does not create some space for him to politico-electorally exploit at a later date, there may not be any space left for him at all, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
In an age when the electorate is increasingly impatient and changes governments every 5 years, how did the Tamil Nadu chief minister beat anti-incumbency?
The BJP calculates that simultaneous polls to Parliament and TN assembly could help it, intent as it is on making the state break from its Dravidian past, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Though the 2019 alliance talks, if any, are a long way off, CM Jaya's current state of health and her long hospitalisation maybe a facilitating factor for the AIADMK to consider any BJP initiative favourably at the time, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Modi's non-reference could also imply that the BJP may be keeping its alliance options open vis--vis the AIADMK. It could also imply that the BJP's national leadership had not given up on the DMK returning to power in the state post-poll, and the Centre having to do business with a new government in Fort St George, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Congress' chances of survival in the state do not look promising, says Aditi Phadnis
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam supremo M Karunanidhi on Monday renominated former telecom minister and 2G scam accused A Raja for the April 24 Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu. He also sent a strong message to rebels in the party by denying a ticket to his son M K Alagiri.
'The irresistible charm of Indian politics is it can always throw up surprises -- even when it looks as predictable as in Tamil Nadu,' discovers Shekhar Gupta.
Tamil Nadu's ruling AIADMK may choose to capitalise on the confusion within opposition ranks and hope to ride to power on Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's popularity, writes N Sathiya Moorthy.
In one village, a woman asks, "They are always showing cash seizures on television, you think some of it will escape and we will get money as usual?" "Only 1 percent of cash is actually seized, the rest has arrived, you don't worry," a party worker assures her. Rediff.com's A Ganesh Nadar reports on the election in the southern-most tip of the country.
With Tamil Nadu's economy getting increasingly debt-ridden with each passing budget, any concession to the Centre on the tax front, the state government has argued, would only help forgotten 'minor parties' to start hoping of a revival, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
AIADMK's Jayalalithaa won three assembly by-elections from her hospital bed. However, the DMK heir's decision to disempower second-line satraps, who were running personal fiefdoms in their districts, and his fresh approach, could prove beneficial in the next polls, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
By-elections to Lok Sabha and assembly seats in the states of Assam, Tripura, Madhya Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Tamil and West Bengal passed off peacefully on Saturday amidst tight security.
After getting fresh support from various political parties, the Election Commission has written to the law ministry for a ban on opinion polls from the date of notification of elections.
Modi's NDA is good enough to give a psychological boost to the once 'untouchable' BJP and Modi but if the NDA doesn't get a majority on its own, then walking the last mile will be the greatest challenge of this election for Modi, says Sheela Bhatt/Rediff.com
Fulfilling the promises made in the manifesto, a resurgent Opposition in the state assembly, impending local body polls... Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa may have made history by winning two assembly elections in a row, but the real test begins now, says N Sathiyamoorthy.
