The United States and Iran concluded the first phase of in-person talks in Islamabad, with both delegations exchanging written texts to formalise areas of understanding. The discussions, involving key representatives from both sides, are aimed at reducing tensions and exploring possibilities of a structured understanding.
India's banking system is grappling with a persistent liquidity surplus exceeding Rs 5 trillion, driven by significant government spending and bond redemptions, leading market participants to anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will step up Variable Rate Reserve Repo operations to manage the excess funds.
The Indian rupee saw a significant appreciation against the US dollar following President Trump's suspension of military strikes against Iran and the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain its key interest rate. Market sentiment was further buoyed by positive comments from the RBI regarding the health of the banking sector.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant rally following the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, coupled with a drop in crude oil prices. The Sensex and Nifty both closed nearly 4 per cent higher, mirroring gains in global markets.
Precious metal prices surged in futures trading, with silver hitting Rs 2.93 lakh per kg and gold nearing Rs 1.68 lakh per 10 grams, driven by safe-haven demand following US-Israel strikes in Iran and retaliatory attacks.
Indian stock markets extended their gains for a third consecutive day, with the Sensex climbing 753 points and the Nifty closing above 24,550, driven by a drop in crude oil prices and optimism surrounding potential peace talks between Iran and the US.
An Iranian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, is expected to arrive in Islamabad for the second round of peace talks with the US, according to Pakistani media reports. This follows a phone call between Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Araghchi regarding the US-Iran ceasefire and Pakistan's diplomatic efforts.
Indian banks are urging the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reconsider its new $100 million cap on net open foreign-exchange positions, warning that the directive could lead to significant mark-to-market (MTM) losses and force an accelerated unwinding of trades, potentially impacting FY26 earnings.
Congress leader Shashi Tharoor discusses India's role in the US-Iran peace talks taking place in Islamabad, emphasising the importance of peace over competition with Pakistan and highlighting India's regional interests.
The IRGC said the strikes were conducted in support of offensives by Hezbollah and residents of southern Lebanon, and described them as the beginning of a series of pre-announced operations against Israel.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'Many have contributed in terms of gold and silver. Ladies in big numbers have contributed their home belongings and gold.' 'Some have donated their cars too.'
Gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop in the national capital due to a global selloff driven by inflation concerns, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively pushing Trump to take the war to its bitter finish and 'erase' Iran's presence in the geopolitics of the region. Simply put, the two most powerful Sunni Arab oligarchies are on the same page as Israel. Such interference increases the risk of a breakdown in dialogue between the US and Iran, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India's market landscape is undergoing significant shifts, with bank-backed brokerages potentially regaining dominance over discount platforms due to regulatory changes and increased taxes, while the IPO pipeline faces a slowdown amid heightened global volatility.
India should not stay on the margins of this initiative. There should be a serious debate about what would be in India's best interests asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that recent regulatory measures to address foreign exchange market volatility, such as capping banks' net open positions, are temporary and aligned with current market conditions, not signalling any structural shift in policy.
Gold prices experienced a significant decline in futures trading due to uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions in West Asia and conflicting statements regarding the conflict. Investors are also awaiting key macroeconomic data for further direction on interest rate cuts.
Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has announced an economic relief package to mitigate the impact of the West Asia conflict, including fuel price reductions and support from India for petrol and diesel supplies.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
'It was diminishing even before Trump came to power.' 'The US was at the centre of the global economy. That position is going to become less and less important and less central.'
India's foreign exchange reserves decreased by USD 11.413 billion to USD 698.346 billion during the week ending March 20, primarily due to a significant reduction in gold reserves, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Analysts predict a surge in gold and silver prices as investors seek safe-haven assets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The impact on domestic prices will depend on the conflict's duration, with geopolitical factors and macroeconomic data also playing a role.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared the commencement of its 27th offensive under Operation True Promise 4, targeting American and Israeli positions in response to what it termed a new wave of 'unprovoked US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic', Iranian state broadcaster Press TV reported.
Both sides have now revealed a preference for escalation over strategic defeat, and each new provocation narrows the space for the next pause. The Touska seizure, Iran's refusal to negotiate under blockade, Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure -- all of these add up to an increasingly untenable situation. This makes the wild card -- Trump and his motormouth -- more consequential than ever, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 52 paise to settle at 93.35 against the US dollar, driven by failed US-Iran peace talks, surging crude oil prices due to a potential US blockade of Iranian ports, and a global flight to the greenback. This geopolitical uncertainty is also leading to foreign capital withdrawal from domestic equities.
Brent crude prices surged sharply on Monday, rising by more than 25 per cent to $116.5 per barrel, amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has made crude prices bullish.
India has expressed strong concerns over attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, citing its importance to India's energy and economic security. Ambassador Yojna Patel highlighted the need to respect international law and ensure the safety of seafarers, while also addressing broader Middle East issues including the situation in Gaza and Lebanon.
'Existing investors who have not acted so far may consider holding on to these funds with the understanding that the higher returns they expected from them may now take longer to materialise.'
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
The benchmark BSE Sensex's trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has declined to 20.2x, its lowest since May 2020, driven by a record $42 billion FPI selloff since September 2024 and concerns over corporate earnings and economic growth.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged its citizens to immediately depart from several Middle Eastern countries, citing "serious safety risks."
The recent correction suggests that while precious metals hedge geopolitical tension and inflation, they are not immune to sharp short-term corrections and profit-booking.
Gold prices are expected to remain volatile next week as investors track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and key macroeconomic data releases that could shape the sentiment in the domestic market, analysts said.
Amid rising tensions in West Asia following a series of strikes and counter-strikes, the United States Embassy in Muscat on Tuesday instructed its staff to shelter in place.
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