The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below normal monsoon rains for India this year, citing the potential emergence of El Nino conditions. This could significantly impact the country's agriculture-dependent economy.
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season in India (June to September). The cumulative rainfall is estimated to be 105 percent of the long-period average. The IMD has also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season. The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of a significant portion of the population and contributes substantially to the country's GDP. However, while the prediction of normal rainfall brings relief, climate change is expected to cause variations in rainfall distribution.
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"This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days," the India meteorological department said on Wednesday.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), he said.
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The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
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The onset of the southwest monsoon is being keenly watched this year as it may provide an early sign regarding its progress over the Indian subcontinent, particularly when El Nio is expected to rear its head during the latter half of the season.
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The coldest temperatures in the northern hemisphere have been recorded in Sakha, the location of the Oymyakon valley, where according to the United Kingdom Met Office a temperature of -67.8 degrees Celsius was registered in 1933 -- the coldest on record in the northern hemisphere since the beginning of the 20th century.
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Though early days, meteorologists point towards a neutral La Nina during the initial phase of the four-month monsoon season this year that starts from June. If this holds true, by the time the rains hit the mainland, it could mean there would be one less reason to worry about the prospects of the monsoon this year. Weathermen said making any accurate prediction of how El Nino will behave and what impact it can have on the progress and distribution of rains is difficult to say at this point. A clear picture will emerge around late May or early June.
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