Political observer Nazarwala, who made a spot-on prediction on Rediff.com of Mayawati's victory in the 2007 Uttar Pradesh assembly election, assesses Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav's likely political resurrection.
Five years ago, Nazarwala made history when he predicted on Rediff.com that Mayawati would be victorious in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election, winning over 184 seats. With UP heading into a critical assembly election, Nazarwala returns to Rediff.com and writes of a mandate squandered at the altar of megalomania and vanity.
Writing on January 18, 2017, Nazarwala had this to say: 'The Modi wave may help the BJP score a triple century; its vanvaas in UP shall end before Holi.'
Writing on January 18, 2017, Nazarwala had this to say: 'The Modi wave may help the BJP score a triple century; its vanvaas in UP shall end before Holi.'
The man succumbed to his injuries.
Last week, Nazarwala, our columnist who correctly predicted the 2007 Uttar Pradesh election outcome, said Chief Minister Mayawati's tally in the current assembly election would fall to double digits. Here he outlines what awaits the BJP in UP.
Shops, business establishments and schools remained closed due to the strike called jointly by the JKLF, Hurriyat Conference factions led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Syed Ali Shah Geelani; and supported by almost all separatist groups in the Valley.
Mayawati's assets were amassed possibly only when she conceived and decided to auction her solid chunk of trusting Dalit votes to the most suitable bidder. Rather, than the most opportunist politician in exchange for her transferable Dalit vote bank during polls.
Riding against all odds, Narendra Modi has won convincingly. In one line, the victory shows that it is a people's mandate for his personality. It's the clear vote for a person and leader called Narendra Modi.
'Welcoming her with glee reflects the BJP's desperation and bankruptcy in UP.'
The latest round may have gone against him, but the chief minister is planning his counter-attack.
'Overnight, with zero qualification whatsoever for the responsibility of prime ministership, Priyanka is being projected as an alternative to Narendra Damodardas Modi!' says Nazarwala who predicted Mayawati's win in the 2007 UP elections, forecast her rout in the 2012 polls, and called right the 2017 UP assembly election result.
Even as the BJP dithers over what it needs to do, the Congress has stolen a lead by projecting its chief ministerial candidate -- Priyanka Vadra nee Gandhi, says Nazarwala, the man who called the 2012 UP assembly elections right.
The Modiquake has devastatingly hit all Opposition, says Nazarwala.
And ticket redistribution could be that moment, says Nazarwala.
Political Pundit R Rajagopalan lists his big takeaways from the election results.
Priyanka Gandhi will strike a deal with Mayawati and not Akhilesh, says Nazarwala.
Amit Shah's meticulous planning and Modi's charisma will turn the tide in the BJP's favour, says Nazarwala.
Nazarwala, who predicted a triple century for the BJP in the UP elections, lists the challenges that await the new chief minister.
Since the Mahabharata the Yadavs have been known for infighting. And the 2017 UP election proved yet another example of that, says Nazarwala.
All the BJP's present leaders from UP put together cannot win the state for the party. So how about an out-of-the-box leader like Subramanian Swamy, asks Nazarwala, the man who called right the 2007 and 2012 UP elections.
How he hopes to retain his fort is anyone's guess, says Nazarwala, the man who called right the 2007 and 2012 UP elections.
A full majority might be difficult, but Mayawati is in a commanding position this time.
Panna Lal Punia is a man who knows too much. What he doesn't know about Mayawati and her secrets is not worth knowing. Now, that very man is determined to take up cudgels against her. Getting wind of Punia's chances of being inducted into the Union ministry, a desperate Mayawati 'threatened' to withdraw support to Manmohan Singh's government!
The BJP president wants to be head and shoulders above possible rivals like Arun Jaitley, Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj, Venkaiah Naidu, and Murli Manohar Joshi.
There is a mild breeze blowing in the Congress party's favour in UP, much to the chagrin of Mayawati, the Bharatiya Janata Party and even Mulayam Singh. That mild breeze is indifferent to everything else in the field. Dame Luck and the mild breeze seem to have teamed up to turn the tables against everyone else in the fray in UP.
Petty-minded infighting, ego clashes, lack of finances, failed poll planks/issues, ineffective leadership, confused and demotivated cadres, and acute casteism are some of the causes dragging this national party down in UP.
India should dread the prospect of being governed by the dictatorial Mallika-e-Hindustan!
That will be the last pound of flesh Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh wish to extract for the support they are giving the dying Congress party. Fortuitously, the Congress too wants a similar outcome.
The demolition of Sahara Shahar's illegal encroachments is symbolic. The real assault will be executed at the right psychological and emotional moment, in true Mayawati style. Make no mistake.
A strong-willed administrator, she takes quick decisions. Recently, she sanctioned the Taj Expressway, which will drastically cut the travel time from Delhi to Agra to two hours. The chief minister has also envisaged the Ganga Expressway, an 8 lane expressway, running over 1,100 km, across the entire state, from Greater NOIDA up to Ballia.
Mayawati may not be thrilled to compromise and subdue her vaulting prime ministerial ambitions. Her BSP organisational machinery is just a little short of becoming an all-India one. Alleged corruption may trigger off anti-incumbency forces. Therefore, she has no choice -- at least, not this time.
Mayawati was, pre-election, hell-bent upon preventing Amar, Mulayam and Subroto Roy from 'running away' from India. But for Cabinet Secretary Shashank Shekhar Singh's temporary intervention with behenji, Amar Singh would have been put behind bars the day she took over as chief minister.
She has all the charisma sentimental Indian voters look for in a popular leader. Priyanka can try and mobilise the youth, cutting across caste lines.
'With her pan-Indian Dalit following her in a frenzy, slogging for her in the field, with their dreams of seeing a Dalit prime minister in India, the possibility is not as distant as most Indians wish/dread it to be.'
'Mayawati and her dedicated band of anonymous workers are already fanning out in each one of the 545 parliamentary constituencies, making rapid inroads into traditional BJP and Congress domains.'
Thakurs of all shades and complexions will synergise and chip in with all their might to see senior Thakur Shekhawat securely ensconced in Rashtrapati Bhavan.
Politicians associated with Amitabh Bachchan have invariably nursed grand illusions. And suffered.
The battle-lines are drawn. Both titans are flexing their muscles.
In case Governor Rajeshwar Rao refuses to recognise her numerical strength and dares to invoke President's Rule, then UP may have some rare fireworks.
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