'After 2011-2012, both our investment rate and savings savings rate have declined. 'Correspondingly, the savings rate in the economy as percentage of GDP, also has come down.'
The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
Jean Dreze, a noted economist who was was a member of Sonia Gandhi led National Advisory Council, was dropped from the list of speakers at the Delhi Economics Conclave organised by the finance ministry and inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
From Indian poet and philosopher Thiruvalluvar to English great William Shakespeare, Lok Sabha members quoted extensively from literature to put across their arguments as they raised the Manipur issue during a debate on the no-confidence motion over the past two days.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
The judge said the defendant woman being a homemaker, though she did not make any direct financial contribution, she played a vital role in managing the household chores by looking after the children, cooking, cleaning and managing day-to-day affairs of the family without giving any inconvenience to the plaintiff who had gone abroad for work.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has asked state ministers to begin a sit-in outside Nobel laureate Amartya Sen's residence in Santiniketan in Birbhum district to protest against the Visva-Bharati's eviction notice, an official said.
Within six months, outlets carrying Vicks jumped from 60,000 pharmacies to 750,000 general stores. The trade boycott collapsed. Consumers were happy, finding Vicks now at every street corner. A fascinating excerpt from Gurcharan Das's Another Sort of Freedom.
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
This is the second such letter from the central university to the noted economist in three days.
'As long as economic growth remains steady, creating jobs and generating stable incomes, the rise in home loans should not create problems.' 'If the growth trajectory changes course over the medium term and interest rates rise along with inflation, the expanding trend in home loans may not sustain.'
This could become tricky territory for India, given its basically adversarial relationship with China, its moves to block imports and investment from that country, and to deny market access for Chinese technologies, observes T N Ninan.
Rejecting criticism of jobless growth, he said if state after state is creating good number of jobs, how can the Centre be creating joblessness?
There has been a sharp recovery in the headline corporate earnings in the April-June 2023 quarter (Q1FY24), after a dismal showing by early bird companies. The combined net profit of the 983 listed companies that have declared their quarterly results, so far, was up 64.7 per cent year-on-year to record a high of Rs 2.68 trillion in the first quarter, but growth in earnings remained lopsided because most of the incremental gains came from a handful of companies. Moreover, the quarterly numbers showed a continued slowdown in revenue growth.
They also stressed the need to increase allocation for improving the quality of education and improving infrastructure in rural areas.
Retail inflation rose to three-month high of 4.81 per cent in June, mainly on account of hardening prices of food, according to the government data. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.31 per per (revised upward from 4.25 per cent) in May and 7 per cent in June 2022. The inflation, however, remains within the RBI's comfort level of below 6 per cent.
Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the RBI's internal survey says manufacturing, services and infrastructure sector firms are optimistic of the business outlook.
'I want us not to underestimate Indian voters. They can tell good work from bad.'
For Yoginder, it is a release from pain. But for us, his friends, it is the loss of a warm and generous life companion, says Nitin Desai of his 50-year association with the eminent economist who passed into the ages on December 6, 2022.
Higher for longer' may be the narrative in the developed markets, but interest rates might not stay high for very long in India, with a section of the market expecting rate cuts to begin this year. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the April review - after hiking the policy repo rate in six previous meetings. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that the pause was only for the April policy and that the central bank was ready to act if the situation demanded.
Echoing Finance Minister Jaswant Singh's projection of a "significant" economic growth this year, economists on Friday pegged the GDP growth at 6-6.5 per cent but cautioned the Centre on increasing debt and fiscal deficit.
'Revision of the base year for both CPI and GDP are long overdue.' 'The basic data that went into the 2011-2012 series were mainly from surveys done in 2011 or earlier.' 'We have since seen the emergence of new sectors like platform-based work and online marketing.' 'The employment surveys and the consumption surveys need to reflect these adequately.'
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
At this poignant historic moment one can only wish that institutions are not built by bricks and mortars, but also by the rich Parliamentary traditions which have stood the test of time which needs to be strengthened by all stakeholders, notes Rup Narayan Das, a former joint secretary of the Lok Sabha Secretariat.
Wholesale price-based inflation rate fell to a 3-year low of (-) 3.48 per cent in May on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items, strengthening the case for continuing with the pause in rate hike in the coming months of the current fiscal. This is the second straight month when WPI has been in the negative zone mainly on account of a higher base and falling prices of fuel and manufactured goods. Food prices also eased during May. In May, 2022 WPI inflation was at 16.63 per cent. Last month, it was (-) 0.92 per cent.
Retail inflation declined to a 25-month low of 4.25 per cent in May mainly on account of softening prices of food and fuel items, with experts saying that RBI is expected to hold interest rates steady in the current fiscal. This is the fourth straight month when retail inflation has declined and the third straight month of Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remaining within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6 per cent. CPI-based inflation stood at 4.7 per cent in April and 7.04 per cent in May 2022.
India must evolve its own standards on how democracy must be ranked in a diverse and multi-religious, multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and pluralistic idea called India, suggests R Jagannathan.
'The group commands 85 per cent of the global GDP, and if you are able to convey your point of view effectively to this group then you have reached more or less all the important players that matter.'
Bhagwati criticised Amartya Sen for supporting the Food Security Bill, saying it is going to fuel inflation.
Gandhi, who is being attacked by the BJP for his 'democracy under attack' in India remarks in the UK, had addressed a press conference in the national capital on Thursday, after being disallowed from defending himself inthe Lok Sabha and said if Indian democracy was functioning, he would be able to say his piece in Parliament, asserting that it is a 'test of democracy'.
They believe that the key reason behind such a high growth rate could be "a steep downward revision" of the year-ago base period.
A recession is unlikely in the APAC region in the coming year, although the area will face headwinds from higher interest rates and slower global trade growth, Moody's Analytics said on Thursday. In its analysis titled 'APAC Outlook: A Coming Downshift', Moody's said India is headed for slower growth next year more in line with its long-term potential. On the upside, inward investment and productivity gains in technology as well as in agriculture could accelerate growth.
How is it that tomatoes recorded a price fall in official statistics when it remained unaffordable for the common person in June?
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
New investment projects announced in the manufacturing sector declined in the three months ended June 2023. The value of new projects was lower than in the March quarter, as well as the year-ago period, shows data from project tracker the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The new project announcements worth around Rs 85,000 crore in the manufacturing segment in June were a 48 per cent decline from the Rs 1.6 trillion in March and a 66 per cent decline from the Rs 2.5 trillion seen in June 2022.
The rupee's recent decline is sharp, yes, he says, but the tale would be scary if India was like the Asian crisis countries of 1997-98, or even Argentina in 2001, when large amounts of debt was denominated in foreign currency. According to him, India's percentage of external debt to GDP was around 20
Neetu Yadav and Kirti Jangra teamed up to create an app that is possibly the platinum standard for apps targeted at Bharat.
India is one of the few countries in the region that enjoys good relations with both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and IMEC would allow it to recreate the old Spice Route to Europe. All this is in jeopardy now, notes Rajeev Srinivasan.
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