Governments seem to be a lot more wary of imposing a draconian lockdown this time. Some lessons seem to have been learned. So, it may be fair to assume that these lockdowns will do less harm. But they will hurt the recovery process, which is still incomplete, warns Mahesh Vyas.
Those who lost jobs in December were women, graduates, post graduates, salaried employees, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The count of the unemployed mounted to 38.7 million in December 2020 compared to 27.4 million in November, registering a massive increase of 11.3 million, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
While salaried jobs are not lost easily, once lost they are also far more difficult to retrieve. Therefore, their ballooning numbers are a source of worry, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The cut in wages by companies whose operations were not shut by the lockdown was more likely opportunistic than out of business compulsions to survive the lockdown. If this is true, then it is worth wondering what kind of opportunism was this? Was it to make a quick buck or was it to use a crisis to engineer a structural change that was necessary, asks Mahesh Vyas.
India Inc's investment project announcement falls to Rs 11.3 trillion. In the coming months, the pace of investments would depend on how soon consumption demand picks up and private sector investment ramps up investment in infrastructure.
India is not producing good jobs, but creating a lot of Rs 10,000-Rs 15,000 low-paid jobs which are not fancied by degree holders. Pai suggested that India adopt the Chinese model of opening up labour-intensive industries and building infrastructure near coasts, besides investing heavily in hitech R&D to meet the aspirations of job-seekers.
The independent institute advising the PM on jobs seems to have missed the point that the challenge is to create net additional jobs, says Mahesh Vyas.
Nothing in India's recent history suggests that India can provide 8-9 million jobs a year, let alone generate 50 million jobs in any reasonable time, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The labour participation rate tells us how many of the working age population are willing to be employed. If this proportion keeps falling as it evidently is, it does not bode well for India's growth story. It renders all stories of a revival in the economy as a myth, warns Mahesh Vyas.
The private companies announced projects worth Rs 11.33 lakh crore (Rs 11.33 trillion) during 2014-16.
India's real GDP is expected to grow by 8.6 per cent this fiscal as compared to a growth of 8.5 per cent recorded in FY 11, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly review.
The contraction in November this year is the second biggest fall in the current financial year.
There were 86 million salaried jobs in India during 2019-2020. In August 2020, their count was down to 65 million. The deficit of 21 million jobs is the biggest among all types of employment, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The labour force fell from 43.97 crore in 2016-17 to 42.61 crore in 2017-18
The loss of job opportunities in recent times has been so severe that labour stopped even looking for jobs, says Mahesh Vyas.
'If you ask India's finest business leaders, they now tell you -- in whispers, of course -- that the mood has never been so glum after 1991,' says Shekhar Gupta.
The CMIE, which captured fresh projects worth Rs 1.96-lakh-crore (Rs 1.96 trillion) in July, said average monthly capturing of fresh investments was Rs 66,895 crore (Rs 668.95 billion) in 2005-06, which accelerated to Rs 1.10-lakh-crore (Rs 1.10 trillion) in 2006-07 and further to Rs 1.44-lakh-crore (Rs 1.44 trillion) in 2007-08.
Goldman Sachs expects most of the infrastructure investment to be funded by India's domestic savings.
'India is nowhere near the peak of the infection given its large population of 1.3 billion'
Higher borrowing meant widening of fiscal deficit, which is already high this year because of the stimulus packages announced by the government to prop up growth in the face of global recession. Higher expenditure than planned but lower revenue receipts than expected in the interim Budget were the reasons cited by the CMIE for increased government's borrowings.
Recession-hit India Inc may not have done well in terms of Profit After Tax (PAT) growth in the previous fiscal, but FY 10 could see it clocking a robust over 77 per cent growth in PAT, an economic think-tank forecast in its latest report.
The Indian stockmarket is witnessing its biggest-ever bull run - high economic growth and favourable market conditions have allowed companies to grow at a very high pace and create wealth for shareholders.
Corporate India's sales and profitability are expected to improve in FY 10, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in its monthly review.
'The economic impact of this lockdown is evidently huge.' 'Its impact on the livelihood of vulnerable sections of the society is immeasurably bigger,' observes Mahesh Vyas.
There have been reports that nearly three-fourths of the millions of engineers and B-school graduates are simply not employable at all, speaking volumes about the quality of both the academics as well as the admission process in the country's education systems.
Rising unemployment rate reflects a rise in the labour participation rate, which in India's case has been worryingly low.
Gold prices this year are higher than last year, and the goods and services tax is an additional burden for consumers
'Of the 9.5 million unemployed who stopped looking for jobs, nearly seven million were young.' 'Is it possible that the young decided to continue with studies rather than look for jobs?' asks Mahesh Vyas.
Companies, so far, were constrained by the provisions of Articles 370 and 35A, which restricted the purchase of land and hiring manpower.
Go beyond the curriculum. Talk to experts. Build your network, says Dr NV Raghavendra.
'The high unemployment rate being witnessed today is not only the highest in three years but is far more debilitating for the economy than the similar unemployment rates witnessed in 2016,' says Mahesh Vyas.
'I would want people to have food on their tables and their wages to rise.' 'Will that happen or not is the question that we need to ask and answer.'
Inflation and interest rates seem to be on top of everyone's mind at the moment.
'Two consecutive quarters of negative growth are the technical definition of an economic recession, and for the first time in this generation's memory, we may be staring at one,' observes Aakar Patel.
With expansion and roll out plans of telecom companies in full flow, investment in the sector by July 2005, stood at Rs 90.227 crore (Rs 902.27 million).
Passenger cars sales in India are expected to clock a 14 per cent growth this financial year on higher demand for compact and mid-sized cars, economic think-tank CMIE has forecasted.
Buoyed by the upbeat performance of the manufacturing sector, including metals, Centre for Monitoring Indian
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