'We are today worse off today compared to where we were two years ago by as much as 43 per cent,' notes Mahesh Vyas.
The recovery seen in the increased economic activity till September or October is running out of steam. Labour statistics indicate a substantial slowing down of the economy in November, notes Mahesh Vyas.
India's GDP is expected to grow at 9.2 per cent in FY11 on the back of spurt in economic activities, Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly review.
Militant labour policies compounded a poor security environment for capital in West Bengal and encouraged the business community to relocate. constraining the private sector's right to hire freely could well be the coup de grace. As with Calcutta/Kolkata, it will probably take a decade for Gurgaon/Gurugram to feel the difference, says Kanika Datta.
Companies announce Rs 768 bn worth investments in Dec quarter versus Rs 1.15 trn in Sep quarter
'Last Saturday, the largest number of people travelled by air on a single day!' 'There is a kind of hunger among consumers to spend as they have been confined to their homes and not spending for almost 2 years.'
Something seems to be working for Indian consumers. Yet, the Indian consumer expresses some caution this festive season, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
Haryana's chief minister enjoys Narendra Modi's support and protection and will be in office unless the state sees a massive administrative botch-up.
The week ended October 17 was remarkable as it saw a fall in the unemployment rate. We have not seen such a level in any monthly estimate of the employment rate since March 2020, Mahesh Vyas points out.
Buoyed by the surge in India's exports for April-December 2002 despite global slowdown, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Monday revised the export growth forecast for 2002-03 from 10 per cent to 18.7 per cent.
'In May 2020-2021, nearly 10 crores (100 million) lost jobs. 'Covid is not the reason for the present crisis. It aggravated the crisis.'
Labour seems to have found employment as maids, cooks, gardeners, security guards and the like -- a transition that could be described as from farms to the kitchen sink, instead of farms to factories, observes Mahesh Vyas.
'Over 27 million youngsters in their 20s lost their jobs in April.' '33 million men and women in their 30s lost jobs in April,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
The substantially increased economic dualism may exert lasting negative influences which could include a reduced potential for economic growth; the persistence of a very weak employment and poverty situation; rising social and political discord; and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical challenges, cautions Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
In the past 12 months, since September 2020, the net cumulative increase in employment has been just 44,483. This is negligible -- just 0.04 million on a base of over 400 million jobs, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
Revivals nearly double q-o-q to 36 in September, highest in 3 years
The steady rise through most of July implies a greater demand for jobs. And most of this demand is being met, says Mahesh Vyas.
Pvt sector holds back, waits for key reforms
Completed projects saw an improvement of 29.2 per cent over the June quarter, which is valued at Rs 0.31 trillion.
While many of the lost jobs will come back, the current loss is huge and its impact on the households that have suffered because of this cannot be captured in the comfort that jobs will come back eventually, observes Mahesh Vyas.
While other states are becoming competitive, Gujarat, say experts is not paying enough attention to maintaining its own position in terms of business reforms.
After 24 months of slowdown beginning in January 2018 before the pandemic and then 18 months of collapse since January 2020, we have become the world's worst performing economy, observes Aakar Patel.
Hopefully, the small recovery in the labour force and employment seen in the September-December 2017 wave will gather momentum in the coming waves, says Mahesh Vyas.The challenge, says Mahesh Vyas, is to find the corresponding jobs for these aspirants.
In the week ended June 6, only 2.3 per cent of the households reported that their incomes were higher than a year ago. This was the lowest-ever proportion of households reporting an increase in income in any week, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
Neither the CAA nor the proposed NRC are important enough to stake the well-being of so many or stake economic growth. Getting growth back on track is more important, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Employment fell by 2.5 million in February, 0.1 million in March, 7.4 million in April and then by 15.3 million in May, explains Mahesh Vyas.
'The 5.3% growth in wages per employee is the lowest growth in nine years,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
There is an attempt to brush aside the results of all surveys that point to a deteriorating jobs situation. This is counter-productive, says Mahesh Vyas.
The Economic Survey will remain a documentation of the government's resolve to not recognise the severe stress on the labour markets and on the livelihoods of Indian households arising out of the pandemic and the consequent lockdown, observes Mahesh Vyas.
May 2021 will end with double-digit unemployment rate, falling employment rate and substantial loss of employment, points out Mahesh Vyas.
'The large scale and widespread shrinking of the labour force in November, the peaking of unemployment in October and the fall in lead indicators in October and November point towards a worsening of the slowdown of the Indian economy in the third quarter of 2019-20,' says Mahesh Vyas.
The cumulative loss of salaried jobs since the pandemic is even larger at 12.6 million, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
India Inc closed FY15 on a positive note.
Indian tea exports are expected to decline by 6.9 per cent at 165 million kg in 2003 as compared to last year even as production is likely to record a 5.3 per cent rise at around 870 million kg.
It is necessary that at least three million additional jobs (if not more) are created every year to ensure that there isn't an increase in the stock of unemployed, says Mahesh Vyas.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
Users of employment / unemployment statistics can enjoy the benefits of -- initially the speed of private enterprise and then, the stamp of official statistics with a hopefully small time lag, says Mahesh Vyas.
The return of the unemployment rate to pre-lockdown times is not worth celebrating because it is more a reflection of a shrinking labour force than a decline in the count of the unemployed, observes Mahesh Vyas.
'The cost of the lockdown so far is the loss of about 11 million jobs.' 'It is important that a fresh lockdown does not make this worse,' asserts Mahesh Vyas.
Niti Aayog vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar debunked claims of jobless growth, saying how can a country grow at an average of 7 per cent without employment.
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