A feature of 'Third World-ism' is lack of accountability. Whether and how the Modi government is held to account politically is a matter for the future, observes T N Ninan.
The party is better at winning elections than at governance and it remains intent on pushing ahead with its trademark social and political agenda observes T N Ninan.
The promise of a less suspicious government is surprising. What about the disconnect between the new business stance and earlier push to dictate the narrative in politics and public life, wonders T N Ninan.
A faltering economy may have led to a re-think on economic strategy. And Mr Modi might think he is politically strong enough to take some risks. But there could be a minefield ahead, observes T N Ninan.
Whether one likes it or not, services constitute the value-addition sector that the country has to build on, using its comparative advantage in infotech and related skills, suggests T N Ninan.
That's because India does not have a serious venture capital industry with an appetite for risk, observes T N Ninan.
The only feasible way to have a healthy banking sector could be making it mostly private, along with two or three large, better-run government banks, suggests T N Ninan.
Even as both India and the world struggle to re-build after COVID-19, they face slow-burn problems that could develop into full-blown crises, observes T N Ninan.
So far, there seems to be limited debate about their activities in India, where virtually all FAANG companies have teamed up in different ways with India's most powerful businessman, observes T N Ninan.
>The farmers will go home but the country will not get the agricultural reform it badly needs -- if nothing else, then to prevent a bigger water crisis than already exists, argues T N Ninan.
The people in both places have lived in a state of denial, refusing to accept the bald fact that resorting to violence against an infinitely superior force is suicidal, observes T N Ninan.
How long will the RBI allow the government to borrow cheaply? A change in policy direction will see rates climb and bond values fall. Investors in debt funds are therefore at risk, as are people invested in the heated stock market, warns T N Ninan.
Both India and China talk now of self-reliance when their external trade, in relation to GDP, has been falling for some years, points out T N Ninan.
Every option before the finance minister comes with a price tag, observes T N Ninan.
Only a leader with sufficient moral authority with voters can pull off such experiments, notes T N Ninan.
If credit card delinquency spells trouble, there may be questions with regard to the much bigger retail sub-categories of car and housing loans, notes T N Ninan.
Bangladesh might overtake India this year by per capita income in nominal dollars, but it is not yet close to becoming South Asia's economic powerhouse anytime soon, T N Ninan points out.
There will be uncertainty about outcomes,but one must hope for the best, observes T N Ninan.
'The border stand-off and the uncertainties that come with it should be a wake-up call on what makes for real rather than illusory power,' observes T N Ninan.
The last three prime ministers who served full terms started out in their early 70s. Mr Modi is younger and fitter than all of them. But he needs to find it in him to change course if he is to beat the odds, notes T N Ninan.
'This encourages escapism through the politics and economics of nationalism, made worse by tribalism or nativism, the package accompanied inevitably by the erosion of institutional bulwarks and therefore State capture by powerful businessmen,' notes T N Ninan.
When he speaks of them, it is either in denial or to highlight successes that are only part of a larger story that is worrisome in its totality, observes T N Ninan.
Opening up India's market to neighbouring countries can be as strategic as access denial to others. The game should be played both ways, even if it upsets domestic business lobbies, observes T N Ninan.
The government may have to resort, eventually and however unwillingly, to printing money, abandoned as policy and practice in the 1990, predicts T N Ninan.
'With English the most rapidly growing medium of instruction in India's schools and accounting now for more than one-sixth of the total (next only to Hindi, which accounts for a half), India is not about to turn its face away from a language that has global currency,' notes T N Ninan.<
To snatch a state government out of Congress hands is therefore a high-stakes game with national political implications, for it denies the party the essential fuel to run effective election campaigns, notes T N Ninan.
India did not create the problem. But if it had a better functioning government system, it would have been able to deal with it at lower cost to its citizens, explains T N Ninan.
'Manmohan Singh's fond hope of avoiding conflict over territory by 'making borders irrelevant' is increasingly difficult to realise in a world where institutional restraints on aggression are weakening and the new game in town is unalloyed power play,' notes T N Ninan.
'The new trains should be fast, but the roll-out of the privatisation plan should be slow and well-considered,' recommends T N Ninan.
'Anyone can string together a few alliterative words, but are they a substitute for serious thought?' 'And do they make for a strategy or plan for coherent action?' asks T N Ninan.
When emerging from this crisis, the govt must consider a fresh approach to reviving growth, revisiting the Centre-state fiscal balance, and devising a re-imagined GST 2.0, suggests T N Ninan.
Dhirubhai may or may not have owned the government; it would seem his son wants to own the market, notes T N Ninan.
'Rahul Gandhi's recent video performances offer little hope - the first fell flat in attacking government 'strategy'; the second showed him in a position unbecoming of a leader,' argues T N Ninan.
Will people buy as many cars as before if more office-goers are working from home? How much existing office space in commercial buildings will become surplus, and what will that mean for the construction industry, asks T N Ninan.
'The economy has to become the government's No. 1 priority, which it is not at the moment,' says T N Ninan.
'This is not without risk because extraordinary steps taken in exceptional times have the habit of becoming habits until the next crisis intervenes,' warns T N Ninan.
Among the handful of countries with large defence budgets and armed forces, India is matched only by Saudi Arabia in the level of its import dependence. For revenge to be served cold, go beyond import bans and correct these long-term failures -- if we're up to it, notes T N Ninan.
'Now Mr Modi has been offered a more real but different kind of war, which he has likened to the Mahabharat,' notes T N Ninan.
'We may have moved back three decades on the fiscal situation,' notes T N Ninan.
Banks can collapse, markets can be rigged, investment instruments can become worthless overnight, auditors can fail to blow the whistle, board directors can be asleep, and regulators can be incompetent, notes T N Ninan.
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