Mohapatra said there is a 40 per cent chance of a normal rainfall, 22 per cent above normal, 12 per cent excess and 18 per cent below normal.
The south-west monsoon on Tuesday started withdrawing from parts of south-west Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch in Gujarat, with at least eight states, including rice bowl states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar reporting deficient rains. It was for the first time since 2016 that the monsoon started withdrawing in the third week of September. "Southwest monsoon has withdrawn from parts of southwest Rajasthan & adjoining Kutch today, against its normal date of withdrawal from southwest Rajasthan of September 17," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) tweeted.
The national capital has been witnessing an incessant spell of light to moderate rain for the past two days.
It rained in the periphery of Delhi -- Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh and Karnal in Haryana -- but clouds hovered over the national capital, without giving any relief from the heat.
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
From the Sensex pack, Power Grid, Infosys, Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Technologies, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank and Titan were the major gainers. Tata Steel and Bharti Airtel were the laggards.
The India Meteorological Department said the southwest monsoon further advanced into Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmiri, some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan on June 30.
India recorded 125 extremely heavy rainfall events during September and October of 2021, the highest in five years, owing to late withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and higher-than-normal low-pressure systems, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
Addressing a press conference virtually, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said September was likely to witness normal rainfall in the range of 91-109 per cent of the long period average of 167.9 mm.
Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to see muted topline growth, with uneven spread of the monsoon impacting demand. Rural demand recovery, too, remains elusive in the July-September quarter. Brokerages expect volumes to remain steady in the quarter on a sequential basis.
The IMD had said the Southwest Monsoon would hit parts of north India including Delhi on July 10, but it had not occurred till Sunday evening.
Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation commissioner and administrator Iqbal Singh Chahal also appealed to citizens to save water and use it judiciously.
After a steady surge, prices of pulses, except those of urad and masoor to some extent, are showing signs of stabilising amid a revival of monsoon rains over major growing areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka, and on expectations of a rise in imports. Chana prices, which too had moved up in recent months, have dropped by almost 3 per cent since the end of August due to increased liquidation of government stocks, official data shows. Monsoon rains seem to have benefitted the standing soybean crop as well.
In Uttar Pradesh, the death toll due to lightning strikes rose to 42.
The El Nino impact on the Indian monsoon typically manifests by way of extended break in rainfall.
While it hit the national capital two days before schedule, its entry into the financial capital is two weeks late, the Met office said.
Prime Minister Modi last week called for optimal grain storage, fire audits and mock drills in hospitals as preparations for the harsh summer forecast by the meteorological department.
The four-month monsoon season from June to September accounts for 75 per cent of rainfall in the country.
The rainfall in July was minus seven per cent which comes to around 93 per cent of the Long Period Average, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
This should augur well for the rabi crops as delayed withdrawal will leave enough moisture in the soil for early sowing.
Relief work gained momentum on Saturday as rainfall came to a halt in many parts of the state. When contacted, a senior official told PTI that 16 people lost their lives in rain-related incidents as per the reports received till Saturday afternoon.
After becoming active over the rice-growing Indo-Gangetic plains, the southwest monsoon might witness weak phase for the next 3-4 days over the already rain-deficient region. So far, the main deficit states are Uttar Pradesh (-42 per cent), Bihar (-36 per cent), Jharkhand (-48 per cent), and West Bengal (-24 per cent). According to private weather forecasting agency Skymet, rains in west UP, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, and Jharkhand are expected to be weak in the next 3-4 days before again picking pace.
The current coal stock stands at 13.5 million tonnes at pithead power stations and 20.7 MT cumulatively at all power plants across the country.
Scientists had earlier said the cyclone pulled the moisture and convection, impacting the intensity of the monsoon and delaying its onset over Kerala.
The country's unemployment rate in July fell to 6.80 per cent, the lowest level in the last six months, amid rising agriculture activities during monsoon, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.80 per cent in July from 7.80 per cent in June, the CMIE data said. Rural unemployment declined 6.14 per cent to 272.1 million last month from 265.2 million or 8.03 per cent in June, it said.
India received 41 per cent more rainfall than normal from October 1-21 with Uttarakhand alone recording more than five times its normal precipitation, IMD data showed on Thursday.
Conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the southern part of Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during May 18-19, the IMD said.
Delhi is likely to receive the first monsoon showers on June 30 or July 1, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said on Tuesday.
Pulses are most vulnerable to pests and diseases if the monsoon remains patchy for the rest of the season.
With different agencies showing divergent predictions regarding the southwest monsoon, the central government and states are gearing up to face adversity with various line ministries reportedly being directed to undertake mock drills and hold preparatory meetings. Around 56 per cent of the net cultivable area of the country is rain-fed, accounting for 44 per cent of foodgrain production. The June-September rains contribute around 73 per cent of the annual precipitation.
This year, the monsoon was above normal in almost all parts, except in North-West India, which comprises the major grain producing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, along with states such as Himachal Pradesh, the NCR, Uttarakhand, and J&K.
A three-judge bench headed by Justice BR Gavai sought a report from the Cauvery Water Management Authority on the amount of water released by Karnataka, after additional Solicitor General Aishwarya Bhati informed the court that a meeting of the authority is scheduled for Monday.
As rains continue to lash across Kerala days ahead of the expected onset of Southwest monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday issued a red alert in five districts of the state for Sunday and Monday indicating extremely heavy rainfall.
A prolonged break in monsoon rains in most parts of the country is threatening to hit the yield of kharif crops. It could even delay the upcoming rabi sowing. Major agricultural states, such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Gujarat, have witnessed a deficit of 30-80 per cent in southwest monsoon rainfall in August compared to the long-period average for the month. Meteorologists see no big revival in monsoon rains from hereon, though they forecast "some activity" over the Bay of Bengal on September 5-6.
Several global models are predicting El Nio to appear around the second half of the year, which are the crucial rain-bearing months.
The slowdown in sowing is mainly because of the delayed onset of the southwest monsoon and its slow progress in June.
However, the areas under paddy - the biggest cereal grown during the kharif season - continue to be less than last year, mainly due to delayed onset of rains and also on account of shift towards the more lucrative maize.
Rainfall in August is predicted to be below normal (less than 94 per cent of LPA), but the situation is expected to improve comparatively in September, the IMD said.
The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall in some parts of the state in next 48 hours. "The southwest monsoon has arrived in Maharashtra. The onset line is passing over Harnai, Solapur, Ramagundum (Telangana) and Jagdalpur (Chhattisgarh)," IMD Mumbai centre's deputy director general K S Hosalikar said.
Skymet says the IMD ignored the required criterion of two days of necessary rainfall to declare a proper onset of monsoon, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
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