Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the 2024-25 financial year (Q1FY25) dipped to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a drop in output of some crops following heatwave in the main growing months. Low post-monsoon rains, which dried most of the reservoirs in several states across the country, also impacted the production of many crops. At current prices, the growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent as against 4.1 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a spike in food inflation during the April to June months of FY25.
According to Skymet Weather, the initial surge in the Monsoon rains can be attributed to the transition of El Nino into the neutral phase.
IMD director general K J Ramesh said the Met wasn't being conservative and weather patterns indicated that there was a possibility of rainfall being very near to the 50-year LPA of 89 cm.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
Spurred by cyclone Remal, the southwest monsoon set in over the Kerala coast and parts of the northeast on Thursday, a day earlier than forecast by the weather office.
India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), he said.
Increased production of pulses, oilseeds, and cereals will help boost domestic supplies and contribute to keeping inflation low in the coming months.
India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.5 to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year amid global challenges which may impact exports, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The growth projected for 2024-25 is lower than the economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent estimated for the previous financial year. The Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 7.2 per cent.
The rains after arriving over Kerala will quickly cover Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, but then might slacken a bit, which could delay its arrival over Northwest India.
Delayed by 10 days due to cyclone Biparjoy, southwest monsoon is likely to progress further and hit Mumbai between June 23 and 25, the India meteorological department said on Wednesday.
Conditions were becoming favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over some more parts of the south peninsula and east India and adjoining areas between June 18 and 21.
The onset of the southwest monsoon is being keenly watched this year as it may provide an early sign regarding its progress over the Indian subcontinent, particularly when El Nio is expected to rear its head during the latter half of the season.
Intermittent, widespread rains lashed Chennai and other regions of Tamil Nadu on Tuesday and the India meteorological department said the low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal has turned into a well-marked low pressure area and it is likely to become a depression.
Ahead of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections, keeping food prices under check has emerged as one of the topmost priorities for the government. Food prices would likely have a bearing on the preferences of voters. In the past, there have been instances when governments have been voted out over rising food inflation.
Tomato prices have been on the boil for more than a month. Data from major cities show that the spike has been between 125 and 150 per cent at the wholesale level. Soaring vegetable prices, including tomatoes, pushed the retail inflation rate to a nine-month high of 5.49 per cent in September, according to government data. Though reports say prices are expected to come down in the next few weeks after supplies improve from Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, how long will the respite last is anybody's guess.
High vegetable prices are expected to keep food inflation firm in the months to come.
The southwest monsoon has started on a weak note and this has delayed the sowing of kharif crops. Though a cause for concern, the situation hasn't reached a stage where it warrants any panic response. Moreover, according to meteorologists and industry players, monsoon rains will witness a revival in the coming few weeks.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has identified "climate shocks" as a risk to food inflation rates and overall price rise while stating that the outlook for the country's economic growth remains bright. In its Annual Report for 2023-24, released on Thursday, the central bank said easing supply-chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation, and early indications of an above-normal southwest monsoon meant well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks, however, imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook," said the RBI while noting headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24.
The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
The southwest monsoon is set to make its exit in style, bringing rains to the parched parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as weather forecasters have picked up signs of formation of a cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Thursday junked last week's forecast of early withdrawal of southwest monsoon and announced the extended stay of the seasonal showers. "Even though we expected early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, a cyclonic circulation over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal will shift the monsoon trough southwards around September 7.
India has received 20 per cent less rainfall since the start of the monsoon period on June 1, with the rain-bearing system making no significant progress between June 12 and 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Any long dry spell could cause moisture stress in the standing crop during the crucial maturing stage and also make it prone to pest and disease attacks.
Several deaths were reported across the country due to rain-related incidents like lightning strikes and drowning.
The monsoon onset over Kerala marks the commencement of the four-month rainfall season in the country.
A depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
The southwest monsoon might finally start withdrawing from parts of North-West India over the next three days, signaling the end of its four-month journey over the country that started in June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. However, though the retreat might begin from next week, the rains might not descend quickly, as the met department predicted fresh spells of rains in Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and east MP on September 21-22 and over Odisha, Coastal areas north Andhra Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal on September 19-21. "Due to anti-cyclonic flows over northwest India at lower tropospheric levels, dry weather is very likely over west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi during the next five days. "Hence conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from parts of northwest India during next three days," the IMD said.
Among the fatalities recorded on Friday, the maximum 17 were from Uttar Pradesh, 14 from Bihar, five from Odisha and four from Jharkhand, where officials said more than 1,300 people are hospitalised with heatstroke conditions.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
Sri Lanka meteorological department predicts better weather in coming days
It's still early days, but the southwest monsoon has been nearly 37 per cent 'below normal' in the first seven days (June 1-7) of this month. According to the data furnished by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), between June 1 and June 7, India received 14.5 millimetres (mm) of rainfall, against a 'normal' 23.1 mm. Among places where rains have arrived, monsoon in Kerala in the first seven days has been 48 per cent 'below normal', while in Puducherry, it has been 56 per cent 'above normal'. In Tamil Nadu, rains were 21 per cent 'above normal' between June 1 and June 7.
Weather scientists attribute the early onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala to the influence of the remnants of cyclone Asani that triggered the cross-equatorial flow, a key factor for the seasonal rains.
The Southwest Monsoon usually covers the entire country on July 8. The earlier normal date for the monsoon to cover the entire country was July 15.
Though early days, meteorologists point towards a neutral La Nina during the initial phase of the four-month monsoon season this year that starts from June. If this holds true, by the time the rains hit the mainland, it could mean there would be one less reason to worry about the prospects of the monsoon this year. Weathermen said making any accurate prediction of how El Nino will behave and what impact it can have on the progress and distribution of rains is difficult to say at this point. A clear picture will emerge around late May or early June.
Temperatures remained above 45 degrees Celsius in large parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh and Uttar Pradesh, affecting daily life as many chose to remain indoors in the afternoon.
States have been told to prepare in advance to counter any impact of an adverse southwest monsoon.
With the cooling down of heatwaves as the monsoon spreads across the country, power demand has fallen by 12.5 per cent from the start of this month till Monday. Peak power demand of the country had touched a record of 210 Gw last week, mostly due to rising temperatures and opening up of the economy. Compared with the beginning of this month, almost all states have seen a fall in power demand. Punjab, however, is an exception where the power demand on Monday was 17 per cent higher than on June 1.
The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala on May 31, a day earlier than its normal onset date, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
The central and western parts of India, which form the core monsoon zone, may face challenges in coping with the drying effects due to inadequate rainfall early in the season, Skymet Weather said.
Cyclone 'Biparjoy', the first storm brewing in the Arabian Sea this year, has rapidly intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, with meteorologists predicting a 'mild' monsoon onset over Kerala and 'weak' progress beyond southern peninsular under its influence.
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