Gen Pande said India will have to especially watch out for the stance of its two adversaries in the emerging geopolitical scenario, in an oblique reference to China and Pakistan.
Indian students returned from Ukraine early on Wednesday morning following advisories issued by the Indian embassy in Kyiv amid rising Russia-Ukraine tensions.
After topping it for two consecutive years, Gujarat slipped three places on the NITI Aayog's Export Preparedness Index (EPI) for 2022, as Tamil Nadu emerged as the most export-ready state, the central think tank said in its report released on Monday. In a continuing trend, coastal states were found to have the most robust export infrastructure, which officials attributed to the integration of maritime trade into the core of their economies. Maharashtra and Karnataka retained their positions -- second and third, respectively; Haryana was ranked first among landlocked states and fifth overall.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rallied for a third day in a row on Wednesday on buying in Reliance Industries, Infosys, HDFC twins and ICICI Bank following gains in global equities amid hopes of a breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The 30-share BSE barometer index surged 740.34 points or 1.28 per cent to settle at 58,683.99. During the day, it jumped 784.13 points or 1.35 per cent to 58,727.78. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty climbed 172.95 points or 1 per cent to settle at 17,498.25. Among the 30-share pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Power Grid, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Maruti, Reliance Industries Limited were among the lead gainers. On the other hand, ITC, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel and Titan were among the laggards.
The Maltese resolution envisages a win-win situation, which the two parties fail to see in their mood to bring each other to book. It may well mark the beginning of the end of war, predicts Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
India's exports may have touched an all-time high of $422 billion in 2021-22 but recession in key western markets and geo-political crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war are expected to impact the growth of the country's outbound shipments in 2023. All the global trade promoting factors like political stability, movement of goods, adequate availability of containers and shipping lines, demand, stable currency and smooth banking systems are in disarray. Adding to the woes, COVID cases have again started rising in countries like China, Japan, South Korea and the US.
After dipping by as much as 17 per cent in April, readymade garment (RMG) exports of all textile categories in India are showing signs of recovery in May. Exporters in Tiruppur are indicating a rise in rupee terms during the month, while it may take at least a month for volumes to be back in positive terrain. Among the global majors that are placing orders in the textile hub include Walmart, H&M (Hennes & Mauritz AB), Tommy Hilfiger and Target.
'...and then get scaled down somewhat.' 'It will be difficult for any side to occupy meaningful territories, maybe just a bit here and there, and the destruction may vary on either side.'
Taking advantage of the Russia-Ukraine war, China has been conducting military drills on its far north-eastern border, raising expert concerns that Beijing could be considering a push into Russian territory.
Exports to India's key markets - the US, the United Arab Emirates, China, Singapore, Bangladesh and Germany - witnessed a sharp decline, resulting in a 12.69 per cent contraction in outbound shipments during the first month of the current financial year, commerce department data showed. India's biggest export market - the US - with 17 per cent share witnessed 17.16 per cent contraction at $5.9 billion in April. This was followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that saw 22.09 per cent decline at $2.23 billion exports.
RBI's projection of retail inflation at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal is neither too high to deter private consumption, nor so low as to weaken inducement to invest, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. However, entrenched inflation may prolong the tightening cycle and therefore, borrowing costs may stay 'higher for longer', it said. The Economic Survey 2022-23 was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
'We cannot afford to be complacent about our food security needs.'
If a 5% to 10% fall in the equity market gives you sleepless nights, you are not cut out for a 75% to 80% allocation to equities and must reduce it.
Mutual funds (MFs) invested a record Rs 1.73 trillion in equities in the financial year 2022-23 (FY23), providing strong support to the Indian markets at a time when foreign investors were redeeming their holdings. They exceeded the previous high of nearly Rs 1.72 trillion investment in equities in FY22. The data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) shows MFs were net buyers in the equity market in eleven of the twelve months last financial year.
Modi's visit to the US will commence in New York, where he will lead the celebrations of the International Day of Yoga at the headquarters of the United Nations on June 21.
>Two hundred and forty one Indians in the Ukraine returned on a special Air India flight from Kyiv amid rising Russia-Ukraine tensions.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the country's economy is an island of stability despite two Black Swan events and multiple shocks. "In an ocean of high turbulence and uncertainty, Indian economy is an island of macroeconomic and financial stability," Das told reporters during the post policy press conference. He said the financial stability, macroeconomic stability and resilience of growth is being witnessed despite two Black Swan events happening one after the other and multiple shocks.
India, he said, has already taken a host of reforms in banking and other sectors and is now focussing on stepping up public investment. "Compared to other nations, even among advanced countries, I think India is relatively better placed for the simple reason that India paid a certain price last decade... we had a banking system stress which was then compounded by stress in the non-banking financial sector towards 2018," he said at Amazon Smbhav Summit.
From the 30-share pack, Indusind Bank, Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement and Mahindra & Mahindra were the biggest drags, tumbling up to 7.63 per cent.
Global rating agency S&P on Tuesday said even though the US and the Euro zone are headed to recession, India is unlikely to face the impact given the "not so coupled" nature of its economy with the global economy. "Indian economy is a lot decoupled from the global economy than we normally think of, given its large domestic demand, even though you (India) are a net importer of energy. "But you have enough forex reserves on one hand and your companies have managed to maintain healthy balance sheets," Paul F Gruenwald, S&P global chief economist and managing director, told reporters in Mumbai.
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
Rapidly changing geo-political scenarios such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have made a significant impact on cybersecurity. Despite their best efforts, cybersecurity teams of enterprises may not be able to plug all vulnerabilities, according to a report by Indusface, a software-as-a-service security firm.
The Indian position on the Russia-Ukraine war and the unconditional treaty between China and Russia appear to have caused some ripples in India-US relations and led to a reappraisal of India's usefulness to the US in the eventuality of a conflict with China, notes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
The coup attempt has weakened Putin's position and in desperation he may well sanction the use of nukes, points out Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
The conclave will be held at the national capital from April 18-22 and will be chaired by Army Chief Gen MM Naravane.
Gold burnished its image as the go-to asset class during turbulent times. However, investors seemed to have missed the bus. Net inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) plunged to a four-year low of Rs 653 crore in 2022-23 (FY23), even as gold emerged as the top-performing asset class.
Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra on Wednesday refused to speculate on whether the G20 foreign ministers' meeting would be able to come out with a joint communique against the backdrop of widening differences between the West and Russia on the Ukraine conflict.
Domestic passenger vehicle retail sales declined eight per cent in February as the companies continued to suffer production loss due to chip shortage, automobile dealers' body FADA said on Friday. The passenger vehicle (PV) sales dropped to 2,38,096 units last month, down 7.84 per cent from 2,58,337 units in February 2021. "Even though the passenger vehicle (PV) segment saw some launches and slight respite in supply due to better production, it was not enough to meet customer demand. "Vehicle waiting period thus remains similar to what it was in the past few months," FADA president Vinkesh Gulati stated.
If they can sit together and hammer out 'Black Sea Initiative' deal for much needed food shipments, surely, they should be able to address the madness of the larger military conflict?
Novelis' results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) disappointed investors and as a result, the share price of Hindalco (Novelis is a 100 per cent subsidiary of Hindalco) has slid. The non-ferrous metals major is suffering from the impact of a down-cycle in aluminium and copper, as well as the slowdown imposed in Europe by the Russia-Ukraine war. Prospects for the firm look gloomy, at least for the first half (H1) of FY24.
Foreign direct investment into the country is expected to rebound in the coming months on account of India's high economic growth, and steps to further improve the business environment of India, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. The rise in global uncertainty in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, FDI equity inflows in the manufacturing sector in the first half of the current fiscal (April-September) fell below its corresponding level in the first half of 2021-22, the document, which was tabled in Parliament, said. The monetary tightening at the global level has further restricted the FDI equity inflows, the survey said.
As India's stock rises, the resolution of the border row may become even more difficult, warn Harsh V Pant and Kalpit Mankikar.
Domestic commercial-vehicle (CV) sales volume will witness significant growth over the next few years and the overall CV volume is likely to reach close to 1-million units by FY24, a report said on Wednesday. The report by credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings also expects growing demand and the resultant rise in operating leverage to boost the profitability of the domestic CV-focused original equipment manufacturers after FY22, despite elevated production costs. A recovery in medium and heavy CVs from multi-year lows, along with sustained growth in light CV categories, will help overall CV volume to reach close to 1-million units by FY24 - the level of the last cyclical peak recorded in FY19, it said.
'Investors should look to incrementally allocate towards equity from a medium-to-long term horizon.'
Retail inflation declined to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April mainly due to falling prices of vegetables, oils and fats, and came closer to Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, showed government data released Friday. It was for the second month in a row that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remained within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6 per cent. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday made a fresh push for reforms in global institutions, including the United Nations, asserting that the world's 'new realities' should be reflected in 'new global structure' as it is nature's law that those who don't change with times lose their relevance.
India's import of cheap Russian oil scaled another record in May and is now more than the combined oil bought from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and the US, industry data showed. India took 1.96 million barrels a day from Russia in May, 15 per cent more than the previous high in April, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia now makes up for nearly 42 per cent of all crude oil India imported in May.
In his meeting with Putin, Modi said "today's era is not of war" and nudged him to end the conflict.
Fund mobilisation by companies through equity and debt routes has dropped 20 per cent in 2022 to nearly Rs 11 lakh crore, as exuberance dwindled this year due to expensive credit avenues and volatile markets. The first half of 2023 could continue to remain challenging. The year 2021 was extraordinary for fundraising from the equity and debt routes, while 2022 has seen a slowdown in capital raising owing to elevated volatility provoked by unprecedented inflation globally and the Russia-Ukraine war.
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