Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Services said on Monday that it had upgraded India's country ceiling for foreign currency debt to Ba1, the top of the speculative grade, from Ba2 due to a substantial improvement in the external liquidity.
At a combined level, the fiscal deficit of the Centre and states together will come at 12.1 per cent, with the states contributing 4.5 per cent.
Providing services like broadband connectivity, cable TV, enterprise solutions, and payment wallets is the need of the hour for telcos, and a second wave of consolidation is upon the industry, a rating agency said on Tuesday. India Ratings and Research said the sector, which was battered following the aggressive entry of Reliance Jio, will continue showing signs of recovery amid conducive regulatory environment and maintained a "stable" outlook for the industry in FY22. The second round of consolidation (Consolidation 2.0) is kicking-in in the industry, which will bring a transformation in the business models of telecom companies, leading to the evolution of incumbents from the providers of traditional voice-only services to complete digital solutions for households, it said.
India's growth outlook has weakened sharply this year, with a crunch that started with the non-banking finance institutions spreading to retail businesses, car-makers, home sales and heavy industries.
After the government sought Parliament's nod for a second batch of supplementary demand for grants that will cause a hit of Rs 2.99 trillion to the exchequer, doubts suddenly arose about the government's ability to meet the Budget projections of reining in its fiscal deficit at 6.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), or Rs 15.06 trillion, for the current financial year. Till now, many were of the opinion that the government would succeed in checking the deficit at a much lower figure than what was given in the Budget Estimates (BE). The government had sought Parliament's approval to spend Rs 3.74 trillion extra, but Rs 74,517.01 crore will be matched by equal savings on other heads.
The improved outlook on the Government of India announced by rating agency Moody's might need to be viewed with some scepticism. There is no doubt the performance of the Indian economy has sharply improved from the deep trough it hit last year. But the ability of the second largest global ratings agency to assess an upside and downside before events make everyone wise about India has been dismal for a long time, as the chart shows.
From Covid-19 essentials, such as Vitamin C supplements and thermometers, to bicycles, laptops, and personal weighing scales, demand for certain items galloped during last financial year as the pandemic altered what Indians used on a day-to-day basis. Imports of outdoor sports equipment, handbags for women, and dentures, among others, plummeted. With outdoor activities coming to a halt last year and schools functioning virtually, imports of sports goods witnessed a decline, while inbound shipments of laptops and battery chargers saw a sharp uptick, according to the import data for the financial year 2020-21.
The real estate sector might have been caught off guard by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, but large listed developers like Godrej Properties and Prestige Estates Projects soldier on undeterred. They aim to have sales bookings of Rs 10,000 crore in the next few years.
'In 2016, we had De-Mon and in 2017, we had GST.' 'The combined impact of these two started showing up in 2019 and 2020.' 'COVID-19 only added insult to injury.'
MEIL has become one of the fastest growing and most successful infrastructure and engineering, procurement, and construction companies in the country in recent times.
In Q1, India's GDP shrank by a staggering 24 per cent year-on-year amid the imposition of one of the most stringent global nationwide lockdowns.
Days after keeping India's rating at lowest investment grade for 13th year in a row, the rating agency in a webinar said despite the contraction in GDP this year, the country continues to be an outperformer among the peer groups.
India's economy is unlikely to see double-digit growth and may grow between 8 per cent and 9 per cent this fiscal year (2021-22, or FY22), against the estimated 11.5 per cent, according to leading economists and rating agencies. The downward revision of growth projections to as low as 10 per cent is mostly on account of stringency in restrictions by states, relatively slow vaccination pace, and the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic. However, they say the impact will not be as severe as the first wave, and expect the first quarter to see positive growth.
Zero-coupon bonds don't give out interest but are issued at a deep discount to the face value, making it difficult to ascertain the net present value.
If raters get away by moving from AAA to D overnight after companies default, as happened with DHFL, YES Bank, RCom, and IL&FS, it shows a complete breakdown in the rating system. It calls for exemplary punishment, not kid glove treatment, says Debashis Basu.
If the government cuts wasteful expenditure as it is trying now, the deficit would at most fall to 8 per cent, not less than that.
Auto-debit payment bounces have gone up for the second consecutive month in May, emphasising the stress building up due to a halt in economic activities as authorities lock down various parts of the country to stop the spread of the virus in the second wave. According to the National Automated Clearing House (NACH) data, in May, of the 85.7 million transactions initiated, 35.91 per cent, or 30.8 million transactions, failed.
Railway route privatisation is not as rosy it looks as there is no bar on competition on one hand and demand-risks outweigh the benefits on other, even though the private operator is free to fix the tariffs, warns a report.
Remittances growth is muted due to "structural" reasons which will hamper consumption demand locally, a report said on Thursday. "...the muted external remittances growth is more of a structural issue than transitory," India Ratings and Research said in its note. India has been the largest recipient of remittances from its diaspora spread all across the world and received over $70 billion inflows last year. The agency argued that flows had started to moderate even before the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, pointing out that as a percentage of gross disposable income, the share of remittances fell to 2.5 per cent in FY19 as against 3.5 per cent in FY10.
Welcoming the latest round of stimulus announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday, experts said the measures will support the economic recovery boosting demand, job creation and by providing funds to the MSME and stressed sectors. The fiscal impact of the stimulus is likely to be around 0.25-0.6 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal, they said.
From spending a little less than three hours on making voice calls, Indians are spending well over 5 hours. So, while people make more calls, they are spending less than ever, reports Romita Majumdar.
For 2021-22, it projected the economy to clock a growth of 10.6 per cent.
The Indian team has all the markings of a great team as it can not only fight it out but win against the odds in all conditions, former Australia opener Matthew Hayden said.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday said the resurgence of COVID-19 infections may delay India's economic recovery, but won't derail it, as it kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook. It projected a 12.8 per cent recovery in GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2022 (FY22), moderating to 5.8 per cent in FY23, from an estimated contraction of 7.5 per cent in 2020-21. Fitch had in June last year revised outlook for India to 'negative' from 'stable' on grounds that the coronavirus pandemic had significantly weakened the country's growth outlook and exposed the challenges associated with a high public debt burden.
India's industrial production contracted by 3.6 per cent in February, official data showed on Monday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), manufacturing sector output declined by 3.7 per cent in February 2021. Retail inflation rose to 5.52 per cent in March, mainly on account of higher food prices, government data showed on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation stood at 5.03 per cent in February.
The bond market is not in a mood to reason with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on keeping yields low. The 10-year bond yields continued to rise for the fourth straight session to close at 6.202 per cent from its previous close of 6.135 per cent. The yield was at 6 per cent a week ago. The RBI wants the yields to remain at 6 per cent, but bond dealers say the central bank will have to step up its bond-buying programme.
The airline had raised Rs 700 crore from the debt market through a non-convertible debenture issue and the same was up for interest payment or redemption on Thursday.
Indian economy is likely to rebound with an 8.9 per cent growth in the fiscal year beginning April 2021 after economic activity showed significant improvement in the last quarter, IHS Markit said on Friday. The National Statistical Organisation (NSO) on Thursday predicted that the economy will contract 7.7 per cent in the current financial year ending in March, the worst performance in four decades.
As India emerges from the COVID-19 crisis, the ninth budget under the Modi government, including an interim one, is widely expected to focus on boosting spending on job creation and rural development, generous allocations for development schemes, putting more money in the hands of the average taxpayer and easing rules to attract foreign investments.
Sluggish infrastructure sector growth would also have impact on IIP as these segments account for about 41 per cent of the total factory output.
Check out some of the stocks that will react on the basis of their numbers in the near term.
India Ratings expects long products demand growth to be sharp, supported by a demand push from the government-led infrastructure investments in affordable housing, railways, rural electrification and road networks.
A communiqu sent by the department of investment and public asset management (DIPAM) to the heads of all PSUs, said the move would help the government to get predictable and periodic dividends before Budget estimates are firmed up.
To enable widen the fiscal deficit beyond the permissible limit under the present legislation, the government may have to propose amendment to the FRBM Act in the Finance Bill.
Going forward, the February factory output may be impacted as several industries such as automobiles, technology, pharma and fashion have some exposure to imports of raw and intermediate materials from China.
The number of centrally sponsored schemes have increased to 35 in FY22 from 30 in FY21 and central sector schemes have increased to 704 from 685 in the previous year, reports Dilasha Seth.
India's GDP estimates for 2020-21 show that the economy is expected to perform much better than earlier projections by different agencies, indicating a sustained V-shape post-lockdown recovery, experts said. The first Advance Estimates (AE) by the National Statistics Office (NSO) has projected a contraction of 7.7 per cent in the real GDP during 2020-21. This was better than the projections by certain international agencies like the IMF and World Bank.
About 50 per cent of the accounts that availed of the EMI moratorium amid the pandemic, which made things worse in an already slowing economy, are expected to be restructured, and of these accounts that would undergo restructuring, one-third, or Rs 6-9 trillion, could turn into NPAs.
Unlike the earlier experience post the global financial crisis, where nearly 90 per cent of the restructuring happened in the corporate loans, the non-corporate segment, which includes small businesses, agricultural loans and retail lending, will account for a higher share this time.
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