This may come as a surprise to many. Retail price inflation in petrol was the lowest at 10.21 per cent in March since November 2020. In diesel, it scraped the bottom of the barrel at 5.19 per cent in the last month of 2021-22 since February 2020. Even liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was at a nine-month low of 9.97 per cent in the month.
Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has said it might not downgrade India's sovereign credit rating further, after the government announced plans to reduce the gap between income and expenditure
Ratings agency Moody's on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign rating and upgraded the country's outlook to 'stable' from 'negative', citing receding downside risks to the economy and financial system.
The report further pointed out that the current rupee volatility will be 'less damaging than in 1991, when low reserves and a widening current account deficit prompted India's last balance of payment crisis'.
'While we note the very strong cyclical recovery in the economy, we believe there is still uncertainty over medium-term prospects.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will stay away from changing key rates - including the reverse repo rate - this fiscal in the backdrop of Omicron. However, it will continue to shape the rate movements through liquidity market operations. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor, State Bank of India, said whether Omicron surge or not, there is not going to be any hike this year. However, the central bank may continue to shape rates through market operations.
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The agency's lead analyst Art Woo added that fiscal management is a challenging task.
Although its ratings outlook for foreign currency and local currency is stable, Moody's outlook for the country says it faces challenges in macroeconomic management and a backlog of structural reforms. "India's ratings are based on the assessment of the country's moderate levels of economic and institutional strength, that are supported by a rapidly growing and well-diversified economic structure," said Aninda Mitra, VP and senior analyst at Moody's.
The recurrent increases in fuel prices over the past 10 days are eating into the margins of transporters, who will be forced to pass on the hikes to their customers. This, in turn, is set to make the prices of daily consumables and other goods dearer, affect consumption, and slow economic growth, said transporters and analysts. Freight rates on grand trunk routes have shot up 3-4 per cent month-on-month in the past few days, according to the Indian Foundation of Transport Research & Training (IFTRT).
International rating agency Fitch said on Tuesday the change in India's sovereign rating is constrained by the high level of fiscal deficit and its review will be done after the budget for 2005-06 has been presented.
The unexpected interest rate hike by the RBI on Wednesday will have the banking system on average making a 10-15 bps gains on the yields, with private banks making larger gains as 57 per cent of their loans are linked to external benchmark rate and 40 per cent to the marginal cost of lending rates, as per a report. Stating that lenders and borrowers will face volatile times with the Reserve Bank raising the repo rate by 40 bps to 4.40 per cent and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 bps on May 4 in an off-cycle policy move, India Ratings said the market rates had already been moving higher before the move. The 364-day T-bills have moved up 120 bps and 10-year G-sec by 140 bps since May 2020, when the repo rate was cut to a record 4 per cent, which led to an expectation of a faster and sharper rise in interest rates in the system but the central bank stayed the course to support the fragile economy battered by the pandemic.
Late-recovery led by rate sensitives and capital good stocks; banks shares slip on profit booking.
As India raised its pitch for upgrade of ratings from the current lowest investment grade, Atsi Sheth, vice-president and senior analyst, sovereign risk group, Moody's Investors Service, tells Business Standard that she does not foresee any movement from the current grade in the next 12-18 months.
Indian drug firms get a shot in the arm in the $12 bn Australian drug market as the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), Australia agrees to accelerate the drug approval process in that country for Indian players who already have an approved plant and product from one of the stringent regulatory authorities like US, EU or Canada. From current sales of $340 mn, the Indian firms can see a significant upside in sales; felt Dinesh Dua, former chairman of the Pharmaceutical Exports Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil), and the MD of Nectar Lifesciences. He highlighted that only 12 percent of the Australian drug market is generic, as against 80-90 per cent in the US or EU. Of this $1.5 bn generic drug market in India, Indian companies have a small share.
The forthcoming budget needs to delay fiscal consolidation, instead should focus more on supporting the pandemic battered-economy and boost consumption demand by offering income tax soaps and cutting fuel taxes, says a report. In a pre-budget report, India Ratings said it expects the new budget to consolidate and strengthen the plan set out in the last budget, rather than trying out new things by continue with the revenue and capital expenditure pattern of FY'22 to provide stability and consolidation to the past/ongoing efforts, and to focus on boosting demand by generating employment opportunities in areas/sectors that have been impacted more by the pandemic. The report therefore expects the finance minister to delay fiscal consolidation and make it to be a gradual and calibrated process, thus ensuring the necessary fiscal support that the economy needs is available till the recovery acquires its own momentum.
Uncertainty looms over India's export outlook, with the new Covid-19 variant Omicron spreading rapidly across the country's key shipment destinations. With the US and parts of Europe witnessing more than 100,000 Covid-19 cases a day, exporters expect some disruption. However, there may not be an immediate decline in exports from India because the order books remain strong at least for the next few weeks, they said.
Since January 2021, the inflation rate in health has stood in the range of 6.08-8.44 per cent.
The sharp increase in commodity prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war has put automakers in a fix. After the frequent price hikes in the current fiscal, manufacturers fear that any more price increases may further dent the already weak demand in certain segments. "We have taken several hikes and cannot immediately do it again. "We will have to closely watch the situation and act accordingly," said an official at an auto firm, declining to be identified. Even for companies like Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, which has had a strong volume run and a robust order book, passing on the entire costs has been tough.
If 2019-20 (FY20) was an unusual year for highway construction in India, with the pace of work slowing down for the first time since the Narendra Modi government assumed power in 2014, largely due to the general elections in May and liquidity crunch, the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21 (FY21) only made matters worse with lockdowns and labour unavailability. The pace of highway construction in 2021-22 (FY22) has not been able to bulldoze the pandemic barriers in a year marred by two Covid-19 waves - the second at the start of the fiscal year, the third towards the close. With localised lockdowns and restrictions on mobility, highway construction growth in the country has now fallen to a five-year low.
On Wednesday, the finance minister expressed concern about the high fiscal deficit of about 6.8 per cent this year. He said some international rating agencies -- S&P, Moody's and others -- can think of downgrading India.
'Bharat has been leading, but it cannot carry India as the bulk of the sales come from India in terms of volume and profitability.'
Global ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday raised its long-term foreign currency rating of India by one notch to 'BB+', with a stable outlook, reflecting the country's improved external position and growth prospects.
Flush with liquidity, banks are eager to lend. And, therein lies the problem, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
After a very weak December quarter and a poor year-to-date fiscal year volumes-when sales plunged to the lowest in nine years, the signs in the first 15 days of January haven't been encouraging either. "Though the severity of the current wave is not as high as the previous one, it has hit the sentiments hard impacting conversion of enquiries into sales," said Vinkesh Gulati, president, Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (FADA).
Costlier vegetables and eggs pushed up retail inflation to a nearly six-and-a-half year high of 7.61 per cent in October, keeping it significantly above the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank.
Ruling out any change in India's sovereign rating due to a political standoff over the Indo-US nuclear deal, credit rating agency Moody's on Wednesday said the crisis was not serious enough to dent the country's economic policy framework.
India Ratings and Research on Friday revised down India's FY22 real GDP growth forecast to 10.1 per cent, from earlier projection of 10.4 per cent, citing the second wave of COVID-19 infections and slower pace of vaccination. At a time when large parts of the country are experiencing tremendous pressure on medical infrastructure, the agency said it expects the second wave to start subsiding by mid-May. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank maintained its 10.5 per cent GDP growth estimate, but Governor Shaktikanta Das has flagged the rising cases as the biggest impediment to recovery.
The Centre could better its fiscal deficit at 6.6 per cent of GDP in this financial year on stronger-than-expected revenue buoyancy, even if the budgeted disinvestment target is not met, Fitch Ratings has said. The international rating agency had last week kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook, and said that the risks to India's medium-term growth outlook are narrowing with rapid economic recovery from the pandemic and easing financial sector pressures. In an email interview with PTI, Fitch Ratings Director (Asia-Pacific Sovereigns) Jeremy Zook said the two key positive triggers that could lead to a revision of the outlook to stable are implementation of a credible medium-term fiscal strategy to lower debt burden and higher medium-term investment and growth rates without the creation of macroeconomic imbalances, such as from successful structural reform implementation and a healthier financial sector.
The retail inflation rate breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance limit of the RBI for the first time in seven months in January, while the wholesale price index stayed in double-digits for the 10th month in a row, showed two sets of data released by the government on Monday. Retail inflation, the key input for the RBI while reviewing the repo rate every two months, soared during the month mainly because of a spike in certain food items. The previous high for retail inflation was 6.26 per cent in June 2021.
The share of total health expenditure as part of the gross domestic product (GDP) went down to 3.3 per cent in 2017-18 from 3.8 per cent in the previous two years, according to the national health account data released on Monday by the health ministry. The share of government expenditure as part of total expenditure as well as GDP has gone up from from 3.78 per cent to 5.12 per cent between 2013-14 and 2017-18, which could also explain a decline seen in out of pocket expenditure in 2017-18. Health ministry also emphasised the increase in the government health expenditure as part of the total GDP from 1.15 per cent in 2013-14 to 1.35 per cent in 2017-18.
Household indebtedness is higher in the southern states as compared to the other parts of the country, a report said on Tuesday. Citing the All India Debt and Investment Survey (AIDIS) data from 2013-2019, domestic agency India Ratings said household indebtedness both in rural and urban areas was higher in southern states than rest of India. In 2019, Telangana with 67.2 per cent had the highest proportion of its rural households indebted and Nagaland with 6.6 per cent had the lowest proportion of its rural households indebted.
'The wish is that 2022, if not bring us into happier times, at least sees some easing of the pain,' hopes Aakar Patel.
India Inc resorted to salary cuts to protect their profits in the June quarter, as revenues came under pressure due to the second pandemic wave that affected nearly the entire country, a report said on Wednesday. The "weak" wage growth will prove to be a drag on the overall economic recovery in the medium term as it will affect household consumption, the report by India Ratings and Research said. An environment of pandemic-led uncertainty and elevated inflation could impact the level of spending and hence the overall demand, it said.
The economy, though projected to grow 9.6 per cent in the next financial year in year-on-year growth term, may grow just 1 per cent in real terms to Rs 147.17 lakh crore as against Rs 145.66 lakh crore in 2019-20, at the 2011-12 prices, according to a report by India Ratings. The size of the economy, as per the National Statistical Office's data, had stood at Rs 145.66 lakh crore in 2019-20, at the 2011-12 prices. According to the rating agency, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract 7.8 per cent to Rs 134.33 lakh crore in 2020-21, but may grow 9.6 per cent to Rs 147.17 lakh crore in 2021-22.
India's dependence on imported crude oil to meet domestic demand has been a matter of concern for years. Delivering the inaugural address at the global energy summit - Urja Sangam - in 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had called for enhancing domestic oil and gas production to cut the import burden. He aimed at lowering it by at least 10 per cent by 2022 - to coincide with the platinum jubilee of India's independence. But this target is far from being achieved and the country's import reliance has only risen.
The sudden stop in economic activity led to a sharp decline in employment-intensive sectors like construction, manufacturing and trade, hotels, transport etc.
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