This is the lowest that the BCI has ever fallen in the history of 113 rounds of the NCAER Business Expectations Survey.
'In the short term, we may see some disruptions due to Covid, but in the medium-to-long term, we should keep an eye on US inflation and 10-year bond yields.'
FY22 will be the year to rebuild with the IMF projecting output growth at 11.5 per cent, economic survey at 11.0 per cent and the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee at 10.5 per cent.
While discretionary spend by global enterprises is likely to negatively impact all Indian IT firms, more revenues from products and less exposure to financial services segment are likely to lessen the impact for HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra.
'The growth drivers are mostly invisible, but the growth is undeniable at least for now,' notes Debashis Basu.
Most producers have put off plans to make capital investments in their wineries, and implemented cost-reduction measures to conserve cash.
The rising COVID-19 infections across the country are a matter of concern, but it may not impact the ongoing economic revival as one does not foresee lockdowns, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The economic revival will continue "unabated", Das said, asserting that there is no need for a downward revision of RBI's 10.5 per cent GDP growth forecast for FY22. Speaking at Times Network's India Economic Conclave, Das said, "We have 'insurance' to protect economic revival like a fast-paced vaccination drive, greater ability among people to follow COVID protocols", and one does not see lockdowns as well.
Diamond industry expects revenues to drop by 20-25% in the current financial year.
There is positive correlation between crude oil prices and Indian equities and investors can expect more upside after the recent rally in Brent crude price.
Outlay for infra is also expected to see a significant increase in view of the government's Rs 111-trillion investment plan under the national infrastructure pipeline to develop social and economic infrastructure over five years.
Even when large businesses said they were flying blind in mid-2020, the markets rallied and an incredible business boom followed. This is not to say that the markets will continue to rally and there is nothing to worry about, observes Debashis Basu.
'The CEA suggested that could be as high as 19 per cent.'
We are adapting to the situation by innovating new delivery modelss, launching brand campaigns that are impactful in the current context and closely monitoring changes in consumer buying behaviour, he said.
Though there have been no cancellations of contracts by invoking the force majeure clause, a number of clients - especially in the worst-affected sectors like travel and hospitality, oil and gas, as well as manufacturing - have started asking for reducing level of IT support.
While the COVID-19 pandemic has completely halted production and new orders, exporters say that payments have also been delayed for the shipments sent before the lockdown. Exporters say some customers are not taking delivery of the shipments because they have shut shop. Ready-made garment players had been hoping for a revival in demand in China but with the virus spreading to Europe, the US and other major markets, there are no orders coming from the major retailers.
India's industrial production contracted by 3.6 per cent in February, official data showed on Monday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), manufacturing sector output declined by 3.7 per cent in February 2021. Retail inflation rose to 5.52 per cent in March, mainly on account of higher food prices, government data showed on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation stood at 5.03 per cent in February.
Experts disagree with the idea and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has the sole right to print money, is not comfortable with it as well.
However, the number of renewals has grown by only 0.4 per cent, which means only high value and ticket size renewals are coming.
According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). "Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.
Portfolio returns, say analysts at Morgan Stanley, are more likely to be driven by bottom-up stock-picking rather than top-down macro forces.
Since April, India has seen multiple strains of the coronanavirus sweep the nation, upending life and businesses alike. Out-of-home retail and discretionary categories such as durables, auto, fashion, lifestyle, hospitality, food services, travel, and tourism have been the worst-hit as Covid cases remain high, leaving state governments with no option but to curtail mobility and economic activity.
Investment in market leaders with a safety-first approach could yield reasonable returns across sectors.
According to experts in human resources, even joining of new graduates is likely to be staggered as companies are expected to onboard staffers after gauging the demand scenario.
The bigger threat for DMart is that the Reliance-Future combine now has grocery revenues that are nearly 2.5 times of it, putting pressure on the former to improve stickiness of its consumers.
Tax department feels that the second quarter would be much better than the first quarter of the year as the economy has started improving.
With 262 planes, IndiGo operated over 1,500 daily flights prior to March 24 but is now operating around 350 scheduled flights a day, which is putting a pressure on its finances.
The liquidity-fuelled rally will continue for some time, however, fundamentals are getting stretched.
Reliance Industries on Friday reported more than doubling of its March quarter net profit to Rs 13,227 crore as improvement in petrochemical and consumer business countered continued weakness in refining business.
This includes an infrastructure push which may lead to the government spending more than its budgeted capital expenditure for 2020-21. There are also discussions on increasing the scope and quantum of direct cash transfers to the beneficiaries who need it the most.
To attract bidders, the government had decided to hive of around Rs 35,000 crore of the company's debt into a separate subsidiary, leaving around Rs 23,286 crore to be absorbed by the new bidder.
Since its launch in late March after India went into a lockdown, concerns about transparency have been expressed about the PM-CARES Fund
The RBI had on August 7 announced a five-member expert panel under former ICICI Bank chairman Kamath to make recommendations on the required financial parameters for recasting corporate loans.
This year, the combined net profit of 24 index companies, which have declared their June-20 numbers, has declined by 37 per cent year on year, while their revenues, including other income, is down by 21 per cent YoY so far.
At $37 per dose, the Pfizer vaccine is much more expensive compared to $3 per dose for the Covishield.
'Companies are threatening to terminate them or putting them on unpaid leave.'
With the farmers' protest against the three new laws and in support of legalising the minimum support price (MSP) going strong, state governments have announced a slew of measures in their annual Budgets to placate farmers. The Centre kicked things off in the Union Budget by assuring farmers that the MSP would continue and coming out with a report card to demonstrate its commitment. However, these efforts don't seem to have yielded tangible results. In their respective Budgets, states chose to go a step further by announcing a variety of measures.
The stimulus measures include extension of the 90-day moratorium on recognition of impaired loans to 180 days, in addition to several relaxations in bank lending limits, including allowing banks to fund interest on working capital loans.
International brands such as Daikin, Hitachi and Samsung, which were largely present in the premium products range, are getting aggressive on expanding their mid-range portfolios to penetrate into smaller cities and towns. While competition isn't hurting Voltas just yet, which has managed to retain its market share at 24.4 per cent as of September 30 (Q2), the main question is whether the company can defend its market share without compromising on profitability.
'It has the potential to add half a trillion dollars to the economy over the next five years.'
Economic growth is likely to plummet to a multi-decade low of 1.6 per cent in fiscal year 2020-21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing measures like lockdowns and social distancing, an American brokerage said on Wednesday in one of the bleakest forecasts on GDP yet. Indian policymakers have not been aggressive enough in their response till now to the crisis, and will need to eventually intensify their efforts, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
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