The value of FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) holding in Indian equities reached $738 billion in the three months ended December 2023, marking a surge of 13 per cent from the preceding quarter, driven by the strong performance of the domestic stock market, according to a report by Morningstar. The value of FPIs investment was at $651 billion in the September quarter of the current fiscal. On a year-on-year basis, the value of such investments rose 26 per cent from $584 billion in December 2022.
Among the Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma and Tata Steel were the major gainers. On the other hand, Nestle, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank were among the laggards.
Analysts remain bullish on the road ahead for the equity markets, but warn against volatility on account of domestic and global cues. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections back home and the interest rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve, they said, will be the two most important factors that the markets will keep a tab on. That apart, the valuation of the Indian markets, they feel, will also be eyed in context of how global peers are performing.
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
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Domestic equity markets will be driven mainly by quarterly earnings, global trends, and the movement in crude oil prices in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Investors would also keep an eye on the Middle East amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and the trading activity of foreign investors. Markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Dussehra.
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Among the Sensex firms, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Wipro and Hindustan Unilever were the major laggards. Sun Pharma, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were among the winners.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and movement of oil benchmark Brent crude would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Equity markets, which fell nearly 3 per cent last week, may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. "This week marks the September month Futures and Options (F&O) expiry, which is expected to bring about volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
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The broader NSE Nifty soared 133.10 points, or 1.22 per cent, to end at 11,573.30.
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IT service company Wipro on Friday reported 7.8 per cent year-on-year decline in its consolidated net profit for the March quarter to about Rs 2834.6 crore, and cautioned that the macroeconomic environment remains "uncertain". The Bengaluru-headquartered company, which recently saw a change of guard with Srinivas Pallia taking over at the helm as the new chief executive officer, has given an IT Services revenue growth guidance in the (-)1.5 per cent to +0.5 per cent band for June quarter on a constant currency basis.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally down in a volatile trade on Friday following profit booking in financials and IT shares amid a weak trend in global equity markets. Snapping its two-day gaining streak, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 30.81 points or 0.05 per cent to settle at 58,191.29. During the day, it fell 370.95 points or 0.63 per cent to 57,851.15.
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RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
Among the Sensex firms, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Nestle, Tata Motors, ITC, Bharti Airtel and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Larsen & Toubro, Wipro, JSW Steel, UltraTech Cement, and Asian Paints were among the laggards.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack were Tata Motors, ONGC, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank and Vedanta -- rising up to 2.71 per cent.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued their buying spree and poured close to Rs 4,800 crore in the Indian equity markets in the first week of January driven by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals. Additionally, they injected Rs 4,000 crore in the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. With expectations of a prolonged decline in US interest rates in 2024, there is an anticipation that FPIs will likely escalate their purchase, particularly in the initial months of the New Year leading up to the general elections, V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.
Trading in stock markets this week will be majorly influenced by the upcoming quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS and Infosys, along with global trends, analysts said. Besides, global oil benchmark Brent crude, rupee-dollar trend and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate the movement, they said. "On the domestic front, all eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the third quarter of the current fiscal year.
Nifty dropped 63 points to end at 5,249. BSE market breadth was marginally negative. Out of 2979 stocks traded, 1,449 declined while 1,399 advanced.
The Nifty ended at 5,334 -- up 64 points. BSE market breadth was positive through the day. Out of 2,985 stocks traded, 1,761 advanced while 1,081 declined.
In the Sensex pack, Tata Motors was the biggest loser, shedding 3.29 per cent, followed by ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, TCS, HUL, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, SBI, Tata Steel and NTPC, which dropped up to 3.23 per cent.
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Following the sharp run in markets, valuations across the board have become elevated. The National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index now trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.3 times, 18 per cent higher than this year's low of 20.5 times. The valuation expansion in the broader markets has been sharper.
It's not only the Indian markets that command a valuation premium over their global peers; shares of subsidiaries of India-listed multinational companies (MNCs) also trade at rich valuations compared to their parent companies. An analysis of 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples of domestically listed MNCs shows that most quotes have a premium ranging from 2.1x to 6x that of their parent. Similarly, P/B, in most cases, is significantly higher in the domestic market.
Among top losers that dragged down key indices were Infosys, TCS, Reliance, SBI, Tata Steel and ITC, falling up to 2.15 per cent.
Among the Sensex firms, Wipro, HCL Technologies, NTPC, Reliance Industries, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra and Tata Consultancy Services were the major laggards. IT stocks fell on profit-taking after rallying sharply in the past two sessions. Tata Steel, Titan, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, ITC and JSW Steel were among the gainers.
Infosys was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 4.19 per cent, ahead of its quarterly earnings. Vedanta, Tata Motors, ONGC, Tata Steel, HUL, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra and Bharti Airtel too rose up to 3.96 per cent.
Among the Sensex firms, Nestle rose the most by 4.66 per cent. NTPC rose by 2.16 per cent, Reliance Industries by 1.53 per cent, State Bank of India by 1.04 per cent and Hindustan Unilever by 1.03 per cent. ITC, Power Grid and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv and Maruti were among the laggards.
Markets extended their gains in noon trades led by banks, capital goods and index heavyweights Reliance Industries, HDFC and Infosys and ICICI Bank.
Going 'long' is becoming an overcrowded trade on Dalal Street, and any negative trigger could lead to a sharp correction, warn experts. However, given the strong momentum, particularly in IT stocks, the downside could be protected in the immediate term. "With the Nifty50 surging to new life-time highs, the bulls remain in control. Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 21,492 is taken out.
The other prominent gainers were Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro. Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
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Movement in the equity market this week will largely be dictated by quarterly earnings of blue-chip firms HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, along with the announcement of WPI inflation data and global trends, analysts said. Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement.
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