What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
From the USA to UAE, Canada to Italy, Indian-origin cricketers will represent associate nations at the T20 World Cup. Meet the Desis chasing global glory at a home away from home.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
The cost of any flight from Delhi and Mumbai could rise by up to Rs 3,000 soon unless the airport regulator is able to reverse a court order.
Brent crude oil prices can touch $150 a barrel (bbl) - up a whopping 103 per cent from the current levels - in the worst-case scenario if the Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions escalate, suggest analysts.
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
The Iran-Israel conflict has further increased global economic uncertainties, impacting world trade, including India's exports, as it is expected to drive up both air and sea freight rates, exporters say. They said that India's exports to Europe and counters like Russia may get impacted due to this war.
The US has sanctioned an Indian national based in the United Arab Emirates and two India-based entities for operating as part of Iran's shadow fleet and involved in shipping Iranian oil. The US Department of the Treasury said Jugwinder Singh Brar, who owns multiple shipping companies, operates as part of Iran's shadow fleet, which the US said is used to evade sanctions and transport Iranian oil. Brar also owns or controls India-based shipping company Global Tankers Private Limited and petrochemical sales company B and P Solutions Private Limited. The sanctions come as part of a US campaign of maximum pressure on Iran and target the country's petroleum and petrochemical sectors.
The finance ministry has rejected the formula and, instead, suggested an alternative that takes into account well-head prices of suppliers in Qatar, Oman, Abu Dhabi and Malaysia.
Gail India subsidiary Mahanagar Gas (MGL) on Friday announced a steep reduction in the retail price of compressed natural gas (CNG) by Rs 8/kg and domestic PNG (piped natural gas) by Rs 5/SCM across its licenced area. The move comes on the heels of the Centre revising the pricing methodology of domestically-produced natural gas on Thursday as proposed by the Kirit Parikh committee and following it with the new price announcement earlier in the day. In February, the city gas distributor reduced its CNG price by Rs 2.5/kg but prices are still around 80 per cent more than those in April last.
While prices sustaining lower levels is crucial, Govt actions are also a key monitorable given the forthcoming elections in 2024.
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
India's net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in current fiscal from $96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from $5.1 billion in 2022-23.
A year after a Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, India's trade with most West Asian countries has largely escaped any major disruption, except with countries like Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. However, repeated flare-ups of geopolitical tensions in the region continue to drive up shipping and logistics costs.
The company had assets in countries like Yemen, Peru, Oman, Myanmar, Columbia, East Timor, Kurdistan and Australia, but it exited almost all these blocks later as part of its portfolio rationalisation
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
A government official said out that with hardly any economic activity, an immediate duty hike will not be productive and could be announced once the lockdown eases and demand revives.
'I have no problems with the finance ministry or with state governments treating petrol pump prices as the last resort for meeting their ambitious spending targets with very limited revenue resources.' 'But let's do away with this smokescreen of free pricing of petrol and diesel and go back to administered pricing regime,' says Dr Sudhir Bisht.
Electricity from Dabhol project in Maharasthra, which is being targeted to restart from July 2006, may cost over Rs 3 a unit as LNG suppliers quote twice the price of gas than the previous estimates.
Given that India will get a huge part of its oil supplies from Iran through its government-owned oil PSUs, any unwelcome shocks in global crude rates could be absorbed well enough.
Declining crude price translates into lower under-recoveries for OMCs
The Indian basket represents the price of Oman and Dubai sour grade crude.
The public has benefited from this decline in crude oil, which has translated into lower prices of petrol and diesel.
Indian basket at 6-month low of $49.11 a bbl
Chinese stock markets suffered their biggest single-day drop since the global financial crisis.
According to estimates, if the companies are not allowed to raise petrol rates at least Rs 5 a litre by the first fortnight of September, they might begin to suffer underrecoveries on this decontrolled auto fuel, too -- for the first time this financial year.
Markets finished lower for the sixth consecutive day as hopes of the Goods and Services tax (GST) bill being passed in the current session of the Parliament faded considerably.
Every dollar increase in crude oil price will add Rs 4,000 crore to the overall underrecovery.
The Indian economy can grow if it is delinked from the slow growth in the West and the deceleration in China, says Ashok K Lahiri.
The government chose moral persuasion to make people give up subsidies, notes Rahul Khullar.
Foreign institutional investors were net buyers in Indian equities worth Rs 277.92 crore on Tuesday
Indices reversed all its losses during late trades.
After 20 months of hectic negotiations, Iran and six major powers have reached a historic deal to limit Teheran's nuclear programme in return for lifting of sanctions. Let's understand closely what the deal is all about.
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