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The rupee weakened by 14 paise to close at a new lifetime low of 79.59 against the US dollar on Tuesday as a strong greenback overseas and persistent foreign fund outflows continued to weigh on investor sentiment. This comes a day after the RBI announced measures for international trade settlement in rupees. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened weak at 79.55 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.53 and a low of 79.66.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
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Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India and HCL Technologies were the biggest gainers. On the contrary, Asian Paints, JSW Steel, NTPC and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
Exchange-traded currency derivatives volumes are likely to drop in view of new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rules, casting a cloud over further participation of retail investors and proprietary traders. There are concerns that existing positions without any underlying exposure will need to be liquidated. Also, weighed down by dollar demand from local oil companies and weakness in its Asian peers, the rupee on Wednesday (April 3) ended at a new closing low of 83.44 versus the US currency.
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'India's fundamentals are a lot better (than those of other emerging market economies).' 'India will suffer (witness a fall in its stock market) what I call the second order effect.' 'And the second order will happen when these funds (belonging to macro and hedge fund investors and which have leveraged Japanese yen-carry trades), because they lose money elsewhere as lot of their positions were financed by borrowing Japanese yen, will have to book profits in investment destinations where they are making money, including in markets like India.' 'They (these investors) will have to effectively sell in countries like India and which is the consequence (the crash in equity markets) that Indian markets might see.'
The rupee slipped 13 paise to 77.67 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, weighed down by the surge in crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 77.65 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 77.67, registering a fall of 13 paise from the last close. On Monday, the rupee settled at 77.54 against the US dollar.
A depreciating rupee, which briefly hit 80 to the dollar on Tuesday, may boost India's exports but price-inelastic imports of crude oil and gold would mean limited relief on the trade deficit, which clocked a record $26.2 billion in June. Due to global risk aversion on the back of geo-political tensions and aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, the dollar has appreciated against most currencies, including the rupee. And, with other currencies depreciating, India's comparative advantage in this respect may be limited.
The rupee depreciated 40 paise to an all-time low of 81.93 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday as the strengthening of the American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and significant foreign fund outflows sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 81.90 against the greenback, then fell to 81.93, registering a fall of 40 paise over its previous closing.
The move triggered sharp reaction from the opposition, which has accused the state's BJP government of trying to stifle freedom of expression.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finserv, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries and Infosys were the biggest gainers. Power Grid, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, Nestle, Maruti and JSW Steel were among the laggards.
Stock markets would be driven by global trends and foreign investors' trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said adding that key equity indices may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. This week markets will have just three trading sessions. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Holi and on Friday for Good Friday. "This week will be shorter due to market closure on both Monday for Holi and Friday for Good Friday.
The rupee slipped by 4 paise to close at 77.59 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by a negative trend in domestic equities and unabated foreign fund outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.56 against the greenback, and finally settled at 77.59, down 4 paise over its previous close. During the trading session, the rupee touched an intra-day low of 77.67 and a high of 77.51.
With the absence of any major immediate domestic trigger in sight, investors would focus on global trends and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the market. "This week is a truncated one with no major triggers expected. However, we anticipate sector-specific movements amid budget-related buzz.
The rupee depreciated by 37 paise to close at 79.62 against the US dollar on Thursday despite sustained foreign capital inflows and a positive trend in equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.22 and saw an intra-day high of 79.22 and a low of 79.94 against the American currency. It finally ended at 79.62, down 37 paise over its previous close of 79.25.
India's foreign exchange reserves declined in the week that ended on April 12, after having risen for the seventh straight week to hit an all-time high of $648.56 billion. As per the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country's foreign exchange kitty declined by $5.40 billion to $643.16 billion in the April 12 week. India's foreign currency assets (FCA), the biggest component of the forex reserves, declined by $6.51 billion to $564.65 billion, the central bank's weekly statistical data showed.
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