Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
Rising crude oil prices are alarming, says PM. He considers all possible options to deal with it.
Investors' wealth on Monday surged Rs 4.21 lakh crore as markets bounced back after five days of fall. The BSE Sensex jumped 602.75 points or 0.76 per cent to settle at 80,005.04. During the day, it surged 1,137.52 points or 1.43 per cent to 80,539.81.
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
From the Sensex pack, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, ITC, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan and HCL Technologies were among the gainers. Maruti Suzuki India, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, UltraTech Cement, Nestle India, Axis Bank and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) were among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
On a five-day rolling basis, FPI selling is the highest in 24 years.
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
OPEC's move to cut output has pushed up oil prices. From here it could go either way: oil could reach $100/barrel or an analysis of demand and supply might follow, say Abheek Barua & Bidisha Ganguly.
Foreign exchange reserves of the oil producers have increased by $1.1 trillion over the past decade.
The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) caution on inflation, highlighted during the recent monetary policy meeting, may put investors' faith in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks to test, analysts said. They, however, believe FMCG stocks may ride through this near-term investor anxiety as related companies are, typically, well-equipped to handle inflation due to their pricing power and steady demand for essential goods.
Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar on Monday hoped that international crude oil prices will ease in the near future and said India was in a comfortable position to sustain prices at around $50 a barrel.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
The Planning Commission on Thursday said the surge in global oil prices should be passed on to customers, but favoured having some provisions to safeguard the interests of vulnerable sections of the society.
RIL is doing better than the regional benchmark due to its ability to process heavy and sour crude, coupled with the higher product prices of petroleum products in the overseas markets. The company's GRMs were $13.6 a barrel in Q2 FY08. Analysts at domestic brokerage houses are estimating the GRMs of Reliance Industries at $14-$15 a barrel compared with the regional benchmark Singapore refining margin of $8 a barrel last month.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled lower for the sixth straight session on Monday due to heavy selling in bellwether stocks including HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries amid mixed trends in the global markets and outflow of foreign funds. Falling for the sixth consecutive session, the BSE Sensex tumbled 638.45 points or 0.78 per cent to settle at 81,050. During the day, it plummeted 962.39 points or 1.17 per cent to 80,726.06. The NSE Nifty slumped 218.85 points or 0.87 per cent to end at 24,795.75.
Moody's said it expects exposure to low oil prices to shave off 0.8 per cent from real GDP growth on average across oil exporting countries in 2016.
While OPEC has been unable to agree on an output freeze in an effort to support prices, Iraq was the latest Middle East producer to raise its exports quota
An analysis of year-wise movements of average global crude oil prices versus India's GDP reveals no inverse correlation, contrary to wide belief.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Bimal Jalan said on Friday that current crude oil price levels were not a cause for worry.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts.
Crude oil prices in July last year rose to a historic high of $147 and then plumetted to four-year low of $37 per barrel, all in just four months time. The minister said the global financial crisis which was the primary reason for the slump in international oil prices, has forced India to revise growth targets.
India, which imports 73 per cent of its oil needs, has been hit by the surge in international crude oil prices that touched $96 a barrel last week. State-run fuel retailers Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are currently losing Rs 240 crore (Rs 2.4 billion) per day on selling petrol, diesel, domestic LPG and PDS kerosene as the government has not allowed them to raise retail prices in line with the surge in cost.
Quarterly earnings from corporates, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will guide market sentiment this week, analysts said, adding that benchmark indices may face volatile trends. "The upcoming release of Q2 results will be closely watched, providing insights into corporate performance. "Meanwhile, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran introduce a significant geopolitical risk, potentially leading to increased oil prices and market volatility.
Dan Denning analyses the correlation between the soaring oil prices and banking rates in the Western world.
Apart from the emotional value attached to buying gold, the yellow metal offers protection against inflation, interest rate spikes, currency and geopolitical risks, says Anamika Pareek.
Oil prices rose following Biden's suggestion that United States and Israeli officials were considering a possible Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, as reported by the Washington Post.
Unless there is a sharp uptick in oil prices, Fed may push back rate hike
Economics and politics both have major roles in determining oil prices.
The Planning Commission on Tuesday made a case for increasing prices of petrol and diesel arguing that it was not a good idea to check inflation by keeping prices of petroleum products low.
What was in the world of reasonable oil prices a sunny economy slips into gloom and doom.
Noting that the country could 'well experience the effects of an oil-price shock,' Deloitte said that political instability in West Asia and a payment crisis with Iran are causes for concern.
Crude oil has fallen about 40 per cent since mid June and the price on Monday touched its lowest level since mid 2009 before US oil prices posted their biggest one-day gain in two years overnight.
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