The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected that crude oil prices will average USD 85 per barrel and the rupee will weaken to 94 against the dollar by FY27, according to its bi-annual Monetary Policy report.
The rupee weakened to a record low against the US dollar due to Gulf tensions, rising oil prices, and foreign capital outflows.
The Indian government is set to accelerate reforms, including measures to enhance foreign direct investment, speed up divestment, and boost asset monetisation, to maintain economic growth despite rising fuel and fertiliser import costs driven by the West Asia crisis.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced volatility due to conflicting developments in West Asia, including reports of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which led to a rebound in crude oil prices and heightened investor concerns about supply disruptions and inflation.
A US military Apache attack helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz, with its crew successfully rescued, as US President Donald Trump confidently declared an imminent 'total victory' over Iran within two weeks and a new nuclear deal, despite ongoing regional volatility and a recent de-escalation between Iran and Israel.
Petrol price has been increased by 87 paise in Delhi from Rs 98.64 to Rs 99.51 per litre. Diesel rates have gone up by 91 paise from Rs 91.58 to Rs 92.49.
Indian stock markets are set to be influenced by ongoing developments in the US-Iran conflict, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the latest quarterly earnings reports from major corporates, with foreign investor activity also playing a crucial role.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
'... with the rest split between mid and smallcaps, as valuations are becoming more attractive across segments.'
The BSE benchmark traded 44.43 points up at 76,521.93, and the Nifty quoted 17.20 points higher at 24,048.85. Track Stock markets on May 26.
The rupee recovered to 95.18 against the US dollar after hitting an all-time intra-day low of 95.44. The recovery was supported by possible RBI intervention amid renewed Gulf tensions and rising crude oil prices.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh, director, Delhi School of Economics.
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed almost unchanged in a volatile session as investors reacted cautiously to mounting geopolitical headwinds and a significant jump in crude oil prices, with Brent crude surging to USD 94.68 per barrel.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a record surplus transfer of Rs 2.87 trillion to the central government for FY26, driven by increased income and an expanded balance sheet, despite a reduction in the contingent risk buffer (CRB) to 6.5 per cent.
Indian stock market benchmark indices closed higher, driven by strong performance in blue-chip bank shares and a positive trend in global markets, with hopes of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations also contributing to optimism.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that India's economy is projected to return to a 7 per cent-plus growth trajectory by 2027-28 (FY28), or sooner if external conditions improve, despite near-term challenges from the West Asia crisis.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 34 paise to close at 93.78 against the US dollar, marking its third consecutive session of decline. This fall is attributed to escalating crude oil prices driven by uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace talks and fresh attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside significant foreign institutional investor outflows from domestic equity markets.
Indian stock markets experienced a second consecutive day of losses, with the Sensex tumbling 852 points, as crude oil prices surpassed USD 100 per barrel due to stalled US-Iran negotiations and escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
'In all these years of rupee depreciation, of rising oil prices, of inflation caused by import dependence, not one leader had the courage to look the people in the eye and say: Please do this for your country.'
Indian equities on Dalal Street saw volatility as global market trends and oil price hike impacted investor sentiment. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for Apr 23, 2026.
The Indian rupee appreciated by 23 paise to settle at 92.91 against the US dollar, driven by a weakening American currency, retreating crude oil prices, and renewed foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows amid increasing hopes of easing geopolitical tensions.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rallied in early trade, driven by reports of a second round of talks between the US and Iran, which are fostering hopes for a resolution to the West Asia conflict, coupled with Brent crude oil prices trading below the USD 100 per barrel mark.
'When I look at India's relative valuations, these are by far the lowest I have seen in my 35-year career.' 'The relative 12-month trailing performance is among the weakest I have seen, and foreign investor positioning is at a 16-17 year low.'
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 14,231 crore from Indian equities so far in May, extending the total outflow for 2026 to over Rs 2 lakh crore, driven by persistent global macroeconomic uncertainties including inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a significant decline for the third consecutive day, with the Sensex tumbling 1,092 points and Nifty closing below 24,550. This downturn was primarily driven by the India Meteorological Department's forecast of a below-normal southwest monsoon and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire arrangement.
The government has dismissed speculation of an imminent increase in petrol and diesel prices, assuring citizens that there are no plans for a hike despite rising crude oil costs.
MNS president Raj Thackeray questions the fuel consumption during recent election campaigns, asking if austerity measures are only meant for the common people.
Moody's Ratings has reduced India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6 per cent, citing subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity due to higher energy costs and global uncertainties.
US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iran's missile capabilities have been severely degraded, saying Tehran now possesses only a fraction of the arsenal it had before recent hostilities.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the Indian government to gradually restore the Rs 10-per-litre cut in special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel over six to nine months. This move aims to relieve pressure on government finances as crude oil prices stabilise, without significantly impacting consumer sentiment.
The Indian central government has reduced its total expenditure by approximately 60,000 crore in FY26, below its revised estimate, to successfully achieve the fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the latest data from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, surged over 1 per cent, driven by optimism surrounding potential US-Iran peace talks and a significant drop in crude oil prices below the USD 100 per barrel mark. This de-escalation in geopolitical concerns and easing inflation pressures provided a substantial boost to investor sentiment.
India's exports recorded a 13.78 per cent increase to USD 43.56 billion in April, marking the highest monthly outbound shipments in over four years, primarily driven by petroleum products. However, the trade deficit widened to a three-month high of USD 28.38 billion due to a 10 per cent rise in imports.
Airlines are cutting not only international services but also domestic flights, especially on routes projected to remain unprofitable in the coming weeks due to weak demand and high fares.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 52 paise to settle at 93.35 against the US dollar, driven by failed US-Iran peace talks, surging crude oil prices due to a potential US blockade of Iranian ports, and a global flight to the greenback. This geopolitical uncertainty is also leading to foreign capital withdrawal from domestic equities.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher, with the Sensex climbing 355.90 points, driven by positive state election results and better-than-expected Q4 earnings, despite ongoing geopolitical concerns.
