In 2021, the Railways boasted of a historic feat -- no passenger deaths in train accidents in two years. However, the derailment of the Bikaner-Guwahati Express in 2022 brought the Railways back to its forgetful past.
Prospective buyers must make a well-considered decision regarding whether this is the right time to buy a house, particularly with home loan rates at near-peak levels, and the risk of job losses looming in many sectors.
HDFC Bank Q4 review: HDFC Bank's January-March quarter (Q4) results, for financial year 2022-23 (FY23), brought no cheer to investors as elevated costs, and merger-related uncertainties continue to dent the sentiment. Moreover, analysts fear that merger-related costs may put pressure on margins and cost to income ratio in the near-term, while the return on equity could moderate owing to low leverage of the parent. Analysts, therefore, opine that the stock's re-rating may be some time away. "While the risk of a de-rating on a standalone basis appears to be quite low given that the business performance is holding up well, we believe a re-rating in the stock would happen as and when more clarity emerges on the smooth transition (merger)," said a report by Sharekhan.
Analysts have turned cautious on Cipla, as the recently issued form 483 by the US FDA with eight observations to its Pithampur (Indore) plant is expected to delay the launch of the company's key generic - Advair - in the US. The Indore plant contributes around 5 per cent of Cipla's revenues, as per analysts' estimates. While the respiratory product, which is used to treat asthma, had cleared the pre-approval inspection of the regulator at the Indore unit; the final approval could be unlikely until the company clears the recent US FDA observations, analysts say.
Check out some of the stocks that will react on the basis of their numbers in the near term.
After lagging behind other segments in the automotive (auto) space over the past few years, two-wheelers are expected to reverse their volume underperformance. After witnessing a 36.3 per cent volume decline over the 2018-19 (FY19) through 2021-22 (FY22) periods, the sector staged a recovery in 2022-23 (FY23), with volumes rising 17 per cent. While volumes are still a quarter lower than the FY19 peak of 21 million units, a double-digit growth trajectory is expected to prolong.
If the current restrictions remain in place until the end of May, we estimate that the cumulative loss of activity could amount to around $10.5 billion, or around 0.34 percentage point (pp) of annual nominal gross domestic product, say Barclays economists.
Bank of Baroda Q4 results: Key brokerages have raised their target prices on Bank of Baroda after the state-owned lender posted better-than-expected March quarter (Q4FY23) results. Analysts now see up to 29 per cent upside in the stock from a one-year perspective as they believe BoB is well-placed among the large public banks with nearly all key business metrics moving closer to the top-tier banks. Valuations, too, remain attractive despite steady strong quarterly performances.
The March quarter (Q4) of the ongoing financial year (FY23) may see cement companies report better financial numbers as input costs ease, pricing action resumes, and cement demand remains firm. While companies have been cautiously optimistic about their outlook, analysts and sector experts remain bullish. In its latest report on the cement sector, brokerage IDBI Capital said that it expected earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) per tonne for cement companies to improve by Rs 200-300 sequentially in Q4.
The share of listed public sector undertakings (PSUs) in the overall market capitalisation has hit a three-year high of 11.4 per cent. This comes on the back of the sharp outperformance of the PSU pack over the past two years. In 2021 and 2022, the BSE PSU index gained 41 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively. Market participants said a combination of factors like value buying and bullishness, particularly in public sector banks (PSBs), were the reason for the improved prospects.
While Mukesh Ambani-led RIL posted a 108 per cent YoY rise in profit after tax for Q4FY21 at Rs 13,227 crore, it fell short of Bloomberg estimate of Rs 13,704 crore.
While Wipro leads the pack on absolute numbers, analysts for Infosys for reporting consistent growth, revising FY22 guidance and beating TCS on revenue growth.
Wipro on Wednesday said it expects to hire about 30,000 freshers in FY23, as the IT services major strives to ensure that supply is not a constraint in managing the robust demand environment. Amid the fast-spreading Omicron variant of the COVID virus, the company remains "very vigilant", CEO and managing director Thierry Delaporte said, adding that as a proactive measure, the company has decided to close its offices globally for the next four weeks. "It is of some relief to us that about 90 per cent of our employees globally are now vaccinated with one dose of the vaccine, and over 65 per cent are fully vaccinated with the recommended two doses. "Our plans to return to the office, even in a hybrid model, for our fully vaccinated employees, will be calibrated in the context of the evolving situation, keeping both our employees' safety and client preferences in mind," Delaporte said during Wipro's Q3 earnings calls.
Paytm founder and chief executive officer (CEO) Vijay Shekhar Sharma will receive his stock grants only after the company's market capitalisation (m-cap) stabilises at its initial public offering (IPO) level, the financial technology (fintech) major said on Wednesday. Paytm's stock price has been in free fall since its IPO at Rs 2,150 apiece, with m-cap at around Rs 1.4 trillion - plunging 76 per cent to a lifetime low of Rs 520 on March 23, when m-cap dropped below Rs 34,000 crore. Since then, the company's share price on the BSE has recovered some value and closed at Rs 637 on Wednesday.
The gross tax revenues have touched 65 per cent of the Budget estimates at Rs 17.81 lakh crore during the first eight months of the current fiscal till November, propelled by corporate and personal income tax mop-up, according to the Economic Survey 2022-23 presented in Parliament on Tuesday. The survey, authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran, said the 'substantial reforms' in India's taxation ecosystem post-2014 and policy reforms have removed the distortionary incentives from the economy. Reforms like GST, reduction in corporate taxes, exemption of sovereign wealth funds and pension funds from taxes, and removing Dividend Distribution tax have reduced the tax burden on individuals and businesses.
India is poised to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world and an engine of global growth despite global headwinds, says leading industrialist and Aditya Birla Group Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla. The economic activity in India has witnessed a sharp recovery to pre-pandemic levels on the back of a rapid and widespread rollout of the vaccination programme, Birla said in the latest annual report of UltraTech Cement Ltd. "A strong digital ecosystem, fiscal and monetary policy and various government schemes helped small and medium enterprises and the worst affected sections of the population to survive while reviving demand and bringing the economy back on track," said Birla while addressing UltraTech's shareholders.
The sharp increase in commodity prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war has put automakers in a fix. After the frequent price hikes in the current fiscal, manufacturers fear that any more price increases may further dent the already weak demand in certain segments. "We have taken several hikes and cannot immediately do it again. "We will have to closely watch the situation and act accordingly," said an official at an auto firm, declining to be identified. Even for companies like Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, which has had a strong volume run and a robust order book, passing on the entire costs has been tough.
Global private equity investor Advent International on Monday said it is acquiring a significant stake in Suven Pharmaceuticals from its promoters, the Jasti family. The PE major said this will be followed with an open offer to acquire 26 per cent more in the listed contract development and manufacturing organisation from public shareholders, and also merge the company with investee company Cohance Lifesciences, as per an official statement. Media reports on a Monday morning pegged the acquisition at Rs 6,300 crore, and that Advent had pipped rival Blackstone for the acquisition.
Quarterly earnings from IT majors Infosys and Wipro, macroeconomic data announcements and global cues would be the major drivers for the equity markets this week, said analysts. Leading IT companies Infosys and Wipro and other players such as Mindtree, Tata Elxsi and HDFC AMC would announce their financial results this week. Moreover, industrial production numbers, retail and wholesale inflation data would be released this week.
The GDP growth is estimated to come at the "deceptively high" level of 20 per cent for the April-June 2021 quarter but is far below the same in the pre-COVID times, rating agency Icra said on Wednesday. Icra said the low base of the last year, when the GDP had contracted by close to 24 per cent, "conceals" the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Economic activity is boosted by robust government capital expenditure, merchandise exports and demand from the farm sector, it said, estimating the GDP to grow by 20 per cent and the gross value added (GVA) will register a growth of 17 per cent for the June quarter.
Target prices around Rs 400 suggest a significant upside.
Strong Q3 brings Infosys comfort amid macro risks.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth forecast to 10 per cent for the current fiscal, from 12.8 per cent estimated earlier, due to slowing recovery post second wave of COVID-19, and said rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence. In a report, the global rating agency said the challenges for banking sector posed by the coronavirus pandemic have increased due to a virulent second wave in the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22). "Fitch Ratings revised down India's real GDP for FY22 by 280bp to 10 per cent, underlining our belief that renewed restrictions have slowed recovery efforts and left banks with a moderately worse outlook for business and revenue generation in FY22," it said. Fitch believes that rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence; however, without it, economic recovery would remain vulnerable to further waves and lockdowns.
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
Historically, Tata Steel has always been among the biggest companies in the group in terms of m-cap, revenue, and profit but its fortunes began to decline after 2010 due to a sharp decline in the profitability of its European operations that it had acquired in 2007. The company was hit by a sharp rise in its debt level after this acquisition. First, it lost out to Tata Motors in terms of revenue in FY11 and then in March 2015, Titan beat it to become the third-biggest firm in the group in terms of m-cap. In FY20, TCS reported higher revenue and Tata Steel had become the third biggest company in that terms.
The country's GDP is likely to grow at 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 and may see a contraction of around 7.3 per cent for the full financial year, according to an SBI research report 'Ecowrap'. The e-National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the GDP estimates for the March 2021 quarter and provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21 on May 31. "Based on our 'nowcasting model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 would be around 1.3 per cent (with downward bias) as against NSO (National Statistical Office) projection of a negative (-)1 per cent," the research report said.
Smaller stocks have continued to give higher returns to equity investors so far this fiscal, significantly outperforming bigger peers on indices. The BSE smallcap index has zoomed 7,333.47 points or 35.51 per cent, while midcap index has jumped 5,096.41 points or 25.25 per cent so far this fiscal. In comparison, the 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex has gained 9,797.78 points or 19.78 per cent.
The key risks against a fast recovery would include long delays in business travel resumption, delays in commissioning, etc.
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) - the market leader in small cars - is eyeing the top spot in the sports utility vehicle (SUV) segment within a year - with a 33 per cent share of the pie. The company has been selling two SUVs - the Brezza and the Grand Vitara - and will start deliveries of the Jimny and the Fronx from March-end, and has set a target of growing its share from the current 11.5 per cent of the SUV market to 33 per cent by the end of 2023-24. The SUV segment is roughly about 42 per cent of the total passenger vehicle market, or around 1.3 million units.
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Reliance Industries Ltd's (RIL) rating to 'BBB', one notch above India's sovereign rating, as the company benefits from cash flow generation across diversified business segments and continuation of deleveraging. In a statement, Fitch said it has upgraded RIL's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) to 'BBB', from 'BBB-', with a negative outlook. At the same time, the agency has affirmed RIL's long-term local-currency IDR at 'BBB+' with a stable outlook.
Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI), India's second-largest two-wheeler maker, on Wednesday revealed its electric vehicle (EV) roadmap, which includes setting up a dedicated EV factory, launching the first two EVs in 2023-24, and establishing 6,000 battery exchange points in the country. HMSI plans to establish a specialised unit for the manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs), named 'Factory E', at its Narsapura plant located in Karnataka. Factory E will be created by converting an existing production line that currently manufactures internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, said Atsushi Ogata, HMSI managing director and chief executive officer.
Kinetic Engineering (KEL), the makers of the iconic Luna two-wheelers in the seventies, will soon start producing components for an electric version of the moped. Pune-based Kinetic said in September that Luna would make a comeback in an electric avatar. The electric Luna, or E-Luna, will be launched by KEL's sister company Kinetic Green Energy and Power Solutions.
Tata Motors on Monday launched the country's first CNG truck in the medium and heavy commercial (M&HCV) vehicle segment in the 28- and 19-tonne nodes. Most truck makers, including Tata Motors, currently offer CNG only in the small and light commercial vehicle segments. The company also launched a fleet of seven trucks in the intermediary and light commercial vehicle (I&LCV) segment, meant for varied applications.
Go-getter, ambitious, dynamic, workaholic are some of the adjectives that officials who worked closely with B V R Subrahmanyam use to describe him.
'Hope they don't tinker around with capital gains tax in any way.'
The Indian aviation sector is on the cusp of a change as airlines look to induct a record number of aircraft. This, analysts said, will put the sector on a growth runway, though keeping it viable for only long-term investors. According to Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura Securities, expectations of strong air traffic, coupled with low penetration, is the prime reason for a solid long-term outlook.
Despite gold prices hitting record highs, analysts aren't gung-ho about the outlook for gold financiers Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance. This, they said, was due to intense competition from banks, coupled with stagnating loan books and likely pressure on margins.
Headline inflation will come down under the 6 per cent mark in July itself but will stay at an elevated level of over 5 per cent for some time, Chief Economic Advisor K V Subramanian said on Thursday. Such an outcome will get the price rise back into the upper-end of the target band given to RBI, he said, adding that consumer price inflation had breached the mark for three consecutive quarters last fiscal because of supply side issues like challenges in movement of goods. "With reasonable probability, I expect this month the (inflation) print to come less than 6 per cent," Subramanian told a conference organised by industry lobby Ficci. Right after data for May showing inflation at 6.4 per cent had come out, Subramanian said he had predicted it will cool down in internal meetings and also during "deliberations with the regulator".
Vedanta investors were jittery on Tuesday as its share price fell and bond yields of its parent firm rose following concerns raised by a rating agency on its capability to repay debt maturing later this year. Shares of the mining and metals major were down by 7 per cent on Tuesday to Rs 268 a piece on the BSE. The company has lost market valuation of 30 per cent in the last one year and 13 per cent since January 1 this year. Yields on the bonds of Vedanta Resources, the parent firm of the BSE-listed Vedanta, shot up to 39.8 per cent - showing investors' rising concern over the group's debt situation
Investors are pushing back more often against companies' resolutions on what is paid out to top executives. In the first four months of financial year 2022-23 (FY23), there have already been five such rejections, according to shareholder voting data from tracker Adrian, a platform maintained by the proxy advisory firm Institutional Investor Advisory Services India (IiAS). Two of these have been at multiplex chain PVR and direct-to-home company Dish TV India.
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