India's net oil import bill could rise by $56 billion to $64 billion annually assuming global crude averages $110 to $115 per barrel in FY27.
The weaker rupee will push the country's import bill due to higher payments for crude oil, coal, vegetable oil, gold, diamonds, electronics, machinery, plastics, and chemicals, economic think tank GTRI said on Friday. Citing an example, it said the depreciating domestic currency will increase India's gold import bill, especially as global gold prices have jumped 31.25 per cent, rising from $65,877 per kg in January 2024 to $86,464 per kg in January 2025.
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Opposition MPs in the Rajya Sabha criticised the Modi government's economic policies, citing the LPG crisis, lack of energy security, and concerns over the Economic Stabilisation Fund.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
India will restrict crude oil purchases from Russia as part of an agreement reached with the US in exchange for lower trade tariffs, sources said, adding imports will continue for now by refiners such as Nayara Energy, which have no other alternative source. US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on imports of Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent under a broader bilateral understanding.
After a three-month slowdown, India's oil imports (already landed) from Russia bounced back in the first 15 days of October to 1.8 million barrels per day.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Despite international crude oil rates crossing USD 100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, the Indian government plans to maintain current petrol and diesel prices, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply across the country.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces increased domestic LPG production to offset import disruptions caused by Middle East tensions, alongside assurances of fertiliser availability and the clearing of UPA-era oil bonds.
The operator's liability in the case of an incident is limited to 3,000 crore for reactors with thermal power above 3,600 Megawatt; 1,500 crore for reactors with thermal power between 1,500 Mw and 3,600 Mw; 750 crore for reactors with thermal power between 750 Mw and 1,500 Mw; 300 crore for reactors with thermal power between 150 Mw and 750 Mw; and 100 crore for reactors having thermal power up to 150 Mw, fuel cycle facilities other than spent fuel reprocessing plants and transportation of nuclear materials.
Will rising tensions between US-Israel and Iran threaten crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, putting India's fuel prices, imports, and economic stability at risk?
Goldman Sachs report said, "India has a fifth of the world's population, but only a 30th of its energy".
United States President Donald Trump has backed a sanctions bill that could impose 500 per cent tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, giving the White House leverage against countries like China and India to stop them from purchasing cheap oil from Moscow.
The Indian government has introduced a bill to overhaul the civil nuclear sector, allowing private participation and establishing a new liability regime. The SHANTI Bill, 2025, aims to repeal existing acts and address industry concerns.
India, the world's third largest oil importing and consuming nation, is likely to save as much as Rs 1.8 lakh crore on import of crude oil and LNG if the trend of softening international energy rates continues, Icra said Wednesday. India, which meets over 85 per cent of its crude oil needs through imports, spent $242.4 billion on buying crude from overseas in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.
The Congress party has criticized the Indo-US trade agreement, calling it a 'surrender' of India's self-esteem and interests, and a betrayal of Indian farmers and MSMEs.
Sustaining 8 per cent-plus growth rates is necessary if we are to reach high-income status by 2047, points out Amitabh Kant.
India's crude oil import bill is set to exceed $100 billion in the current fiscal year ending March 31, almost double its spending last year, as international oil prices trade at seven-year highs. India spent $94.3 billion in the first 10 months (April-January) of the ongoing financial year that started April 1, 2021, according to data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). It spent $11.6 billion in January alone when oil prices had started to surge.
India's brittle energy security is inextricably linked to two opposing paradigms - fossil fuels, and the transition to green energy. The first powers the present; the second paves the way for Viksit Bharat in 2047.
A 500 per cent tariff would effectively shut out India's goods and services exports to the US.
Trump announced that India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff on Delhi, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent.
In the wake of the FTA between India and the European Union, the United States has described the Europeans as 'very disappointing', saying they were unwilling to join Washington, DC in putting tariffs on New Delhi for its purchases of Russian oil because of this trade deal.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed cooperation in trade, critical minerals, nuclear energy, and defence, reaffirming commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
The rupee is undervalued as compared to its peers, shows the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), even as the local currency keeps hitting new lows.
In their talks, Modi and Merz are likely to deliberate on trade and investment ties as New Delhi is looking at deepening economic engagement with Europe against the backdrop of Washington's 50 percent tariff on Indian goods, people familiar with the matter said.
Indian private sector and State-run refiners continued to receive crude oil from Russian suppliers even after November 21 -- the winding-down date for US sanctions on supplies from leading Russian oil producers imposed in October -- as new intermediaries sprung up in West Asia to sell the oil, according to senior refining sources and ship tracking data.
The companies' underrecoveries stood at a whopping Rs 1,39,869 crore last financial year. Of that, Rs 62,837 crore was accounted for by diesel alone.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
'Trump is likely being purposefully vague, hoping that this lack of clarity will pressure India, fearing the worst, to agree to scale back its imports of Russian oil.'
The benchmark Indian crude oil basket is now estimated to average $77.88 a barrel for FY19, compared to the government's earlier estimate of $65 a barrel for the year and $56.39 for FY18
As the rupee has been on a downward slide and crossed 90 a dollar, consumer electronics firms are looking to raise prices of products ranging from air conditioners (ACs) to television panels up to 10 per cent.
An $1 per barrel change in crude price impacts the net import bill by Rs 3,513 crore.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
India must be prepared for a big, fat fuel import bill in FY23 - barring any further avatars of the Covid virus - as refiners crank up runs, or crude processing rates, to meet the growing demand for fuels, and crude prices soar. Capacity additions by an Indian state-run refiner will reinforce the need for foreign crude. Demand for all fuels is expected to increase by 3-8 per cent next fiscal from 2021-22, reaching pre-pandemic levels, according to analysts and industry experts.
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