Change of guard in some states and evolving El Nino dynamics are triggering fresh actions on raging water-sharing disputes in several states.
Climate experts explain how El Nino and climate change are intricately linked, with El Nino delaying monsoon onset and climate change intensifying rainfall. This new reality is altering the Indian monsoon's behaviour, leading to short-duration, high-intensity rain spells, especially in western and northwestern regions.
The Centre has reviewed the monsoon situation, noting a reduced rainfall deficit and ongoing preparedness for the kharif season amidst El Nino concerns. A high-level meeting chaired by the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister discussed measures across various sectors, emphasising continuous monitoring and coordinated action to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and essential commodities.
India's hydropower generation has been significantly constrained in July due to the El Nio effect, which has weakened the southwest monsoon and reduced reservoir levels. This decline, following a 21 per cent year-on-year drop in June 2026, is forcing greater reliance on coal generation and straining grid flexibility amidst rising power demand.
The Indian government has identified 111 districts as 'most vulnerable' to crop damage due to a 43 per cent monsoon deficit, driven by El Nino, which threatens kharif sowing. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated that weak monsoon conditions are expected to persist until July 2, prompting contingency plans and recommendations for alternative, less water-intensive crops.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below normal monsoon rains for India this year, citing the potential emergence of El Nino conditions. This could significantly impact the country's agriculture-dependent economy.
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has announced a 10 per cent water cut across Mumbai starting May 15, citing concerns over a below-normal monsoon forecast due to the El Nino weather pattern. The current water stock in the city's seven lakes is expected to last until July 6.
"Rather than worrying, preparation is required. Contingency plans will be made for affected districts and crop changes will be considered wherever necessary"
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged states to balance the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence with the need to safeguard against social challenges like cyber fraud and drug abuse. He also warned of the risks posed by El Nino conditions, calling for stronger water conservation measures and emphasising the collective resolve towards a 'Viksit Bharat'.
The monthly average rainfall over India is expected to be below normal during July, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday in its monthly forecast.
The southwest monsoon has officially set over Kerala, albeit delayed from its typical June 1 start. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall for the season, expecting around 90% of the long-period average, primarily due to the emerging El Nino conditions.
'We should expect extreme heat, extreme rains, floods, landslides and maybe cyclones. Not just this year, in the coming year as well.'
The Reserve Bank of India has marginally increased its GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent while slightly lowering the inflation projection to 5 per cent. The central bank noted that while domestic economic activity shows resilience, global turbulence, particularly re-escalating conflicts and volatile oil prices, continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
Fitch Ratings forecasts a 9 per cent aggregate revenue increase for rated Indian corporates in the current fiscal year (FY27), a stronger outlook compared to the 5 per cent estimated for FY26, which is expected to keep credit metrics stable despite potential global and domestic challenges.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.45 per cent in July, up from 4.38 per cent in June, primarily due to higher food prices, particularly onions and ginger. This marks the second consecutive month the inflation rate has remained above the Reserve Bank's median target.
The India Meteorological Department forecasts the southwest monsoon to arrive in Kerala in the next two to three days, slightly delayed from the typical June 1 start. The department also predicts below-normal rainfall for the season due to emerging El Nino conditions.
Leading Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies in India are expressing strong optimism for the current fiscal year, anticipating robust consumption trends, significant growth, and improved profit margins. This positive outlook is largely driven by resilient demand and the expected easing of elevated input costs, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and potential weather volatility.
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation marginally eased to 9.78 per cent in July 2026, down from 9.87 per cent in June, primarily due to a cooling in the prices of fuel, power, and food items, marking the first month-on-month drop under the new 2022-23 base year.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the June-September southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be 90 per cent of the long-period average. While the Northeast is likely to witness normal rainfall, the remaining parts of the country may see below normal rainfall.
India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) increased to 9.87 per cent in June, up from 9.68 per cent in May, primarily due to significant price increases in non-food and food products, with food inflation alone rising to 5.49 per cent.
ITC reported a 16.2 per cent year-on-year drop in consolidated net profit to 4,394.13 crore in Q1 FY27, primarily due to a significant increase in taxes on its cigarette business. Consolidated net revenues also declined by 11.1 per cent to 19,114 crore, missing analyst estimates.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its benchmark policy rate at 5.25 per cent for the fourth consecutive meeting, prioritising clarity on inflation trends, particularly concerning energy costs and geopolitical developments.
The IMD is predicting close to a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, which means there is a strong possibility that the monsoon this year will be poor.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, expected around May 26. This marks the beginning of the crucial rainy season for India.
The southwest monsoon has advanced across northern Indian states, leading to widespread rainfall, waterlogging, road blockages, and rain-related deaths, particularly in Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan. The Centre is monitoring the situation, especially concerning potential drought conditions in some areas due to the El Nino effect.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week.
The Indian government has approved the introduction of one billion polymer banknotes in Rs 10 and Rs 20 denominations for field trials, aiming to enhance durability. This move comes as the Finance Minister also addressed Parliament on declining retail inflation, GST reforms, and other fiscal measures taken to support the economy and household consumption.
India's automobile retail sales surged by 21.83 per cent year-on-year in June, reaching 25,57,234 units, marking the best June ever recorded across all segments, according to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA).
The Reserve Bank of India has increased its retail inflation projection for 2026-27 to 5.1 per cent, up from an earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent. This revision is primarily attributed to mounting input costs, driven by the pass-through of higher global energy prices to domestic petrol and diesel rates, which have seen significant increases since May.
'The real shock is going to be from a deficient monsoon.'
'It is not because of the war in West Asia, which began on February 28.' 'Petroleum product prices are already going through the roof. They are bound to have a serious inflationary impact.' 'A country's leadership is tested in trying times. It is here that the current leadership is failing.'
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a significant decline for the third consecutive day, with the Sensex tumbling 1,092 points and Nifty closing below 24,550. This downturn was primarily driven by the India Meteorological Department's forecast of a below-normal southwest monsoon and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire arrangement.
India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June, driven primarily by costlier food items, pushing it above the Reserve Bank of India's median target of 4 per cent for the first time under the new series.
The BMC is closely monitoring reservoir levels and enforcing water conservation measures as concerns over supply grow.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 3.48 per cent in April, up from 3.40 per cent in March, primarily due to a surge in prices of gold and silver jewellery, as well as certain kitchen staples like tomatoes and cauliflower.
The report notes that equities had faced pressure from elevated valuation premiums, subdued nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and earnings growth, sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure euphoria, and external shocks including US tariffs and a spike in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. However, several of these factors are now reversing.
The El Nino impact on the Indian monsoon typically manifests by way of extended break in rainfall.
With the southwest monsoon stalled over southern Maharashtra, India is facing a nationwide rainfall deficit of 41 percent between June 4 and June 18, according to the latest India meteorological department (IMD) data.
A new study reveals that global warming has accelerated significantly since 2015, even after accounting for natural climate fluctuations. Researchers express concern that current efforts to curb emissions are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
