RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, the focus will also be on foreign portfolio investors' trading activity, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for 'Mahavir Jayanti' and on Friday on account of 'Good Friday'.
Equity markets would be mainly driven by global trends and foreign fund trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The BSE and the National Stock Exchange have listed March 7 (Tuesday) as a holiday on account of Holi. However, stock brokers' association ANMI has urged the government, exchanges and Sebi to shift the holiday to March 8 from March 7.
Stock markets would be largely driven by macroeconomic data, auto sales numbers, FII inflows and global trends this week, analysts said. The US debt ceiling negotiations and institutional flows will also be watched by investors. "This week, market participants will closely monitor institutional flows, as there is a historical observation that when both FIIs and DIIs become net buyers simultaneously, there is a likelihood of some profit-booking in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
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Announcement of macroeconmic data such as industrial production and inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision along with trends in global equities would dictate movement in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity would also guide the trends in equities. "All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, which is scheduled on June 14. In the following sessions, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce their policy decisions.
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Global trends and the Covid situation in China would drive the equity markets this week, which may also see volatility amid the scheduled derivatives expiry on Thursday, said analysts. According to analysts, investor sentiment remained subdued last week amid surging Covid cases in China and a few other nations. Also, stronger US growth data has cemented expectations of the Federal Reserve continuing with its hawkish stance, which added to the muted trend.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) will shift the expiry of Bank Nifty derivatives contracts from Thursday to Friday, after smaller rival BSE did so earlier. The change, effective July 7, will apply to both weekly and monthly futures and options (F&O) contracts of the widely traded banking sector index. The first Friday expiry will be on July 14, 2023. NSE dominates the derivatives segment.
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Industrial production and inflation data, quarterly earnings from IT majors and global trends would drive the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti'.
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'He is ultimately responsible for this failure, having ignored warnings from Egypt and the US about the attacks.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, the Covid situation in China and global market cues would guide Dalal Street in the first week of trading in the New Year, analysts said. Markets would also keep a track on rupee movement, Brent crude oil prices and foreign fund investment trends. "As market players attempt to understand the Fed's stance, Indian markets may respond in lockstep with their international counterparts when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are made public later this week.
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Stock markets this week would take cues from global trends, the announcement of domestic macroeconomic data such as GDP numbers and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for manufacturing and services sectors would also influence trading in the market, they added. Benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled 1,538.64 points or 2.52 per cent last week amid concerns that the US Federal Reserve might raise interest rates further to curb inflation.
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With no major domestic market-moving event scheduled this week, stock market investors would largely focus on global trends and foreign fund movement, and may face volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. This week Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are due for release which would provide further cues to the market, Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. "With all major events behind us, participants will take cues from global markets, crude and currency market movement.
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Equity market will be guided by global trends, macroeconomic data announcement and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of the rupee and Brent crude oil will also remain in focus this week, they added. "The bulls need some support from global markets to continue Friday's momentum.
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'We are not entirely out of the woods.' 'The broader trajectory remains tentative.' 'However, we may expect some near-term bounce.'
With no major domestic market moving triggers this week, equities would continue to look at global factors, foreign fund movement and trend in the rupee for further direction, analysts said. "This week we have the August month F&O expiry where bulls are looking for rest after a gain in the August series," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. "There are not a lot of triggers but global cues, August month F&O expiry, and FIIs' behaviour will be important factors in the direction of the market," he noted.
Historically, March has been a volatile month for Indian equity markets. To begin with, it marks the end of a financial year, wherein there is some compulsive portfolio rebalancing trade by large funds - domestic and foreign. Retail investors, too, prefer to 'cash in' on their gains and losses before the financial year runs out.
Equity markets will be driven by the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, analysts said. Moreover, equity benchmarks will also continue to be guided by foreign fund movement and trend in Brent crude oil, they added. "The global markets are looking nervous after the US inflation numbers, which have caused the dollar index to hover around 110," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. Now everyone is eyeing the outcome of the upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The markets may be entering a consolidation phase and are expected to trade sideways for now after a good run in the last few weeks, suggest analysts. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can book profits at the current levels and enter the market again on a decline from a medium-to-long term perspective. Thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24), the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up around 5 per cent to nearly 62,000 levels.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance emerged as the biggest gainer by climbing 2.95 per cent. Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Maruti, Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel were the other major winners. HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra and Titan were among the laggards.
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.39 lakh crore on Monday in line with a weak trend in the global equity markets. The BSE Sensex tanked 861.25 points or 1.46 per cent to settle at 57,972.62. During the day, it tumbled 1,466.4 points or 2.49 per cent to 57,367.47.
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