Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto have significantly advanced the India-Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, securing crucial agreements on defence, critical minerals, and maritime security, including BrahMos missile supply and Sabang port development.
India's crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month slide in arrivals seen during July-September as refineries were back on full stream to meet festive demand, according to ship tracking data.
The turning point came with the appointment of Sergio Gor as the US ambassador to India.
Using an expletive in his post on X, Navarro said, "Fact: India didn't buy Russian oil in large quantities before Russia invaded Ukraine. It's blood money and people are dying."
President Trump claims American tariffs imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil have negatively impacted Russia's economy, referring to India as Russia's major oil buyer. He also mentioned plans to meet with Putin and Zelenskyy, and claimed to have solved several wars, including the conflict between India and Pakistan.
India will restrict crude oil purchases from Russia as part of an agreement reached with the US in exchange for lower trade tariffs, sources said, adding imports will continue for now by refiners such as Nayara Energy, which have no other alternative source. US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on imports of Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent under a broader bilateral understanding.
Russian shipments averaged 1.67 million barrels per day in January compared to 1.48 million bpd in December and 1.53 million bpd a year earlier.
India, the world's third-largest oil consumer, spent 2.5 billion euro on buying crude oil from Russia in September, 14 per cent less than the previous month, a European think tank said. India remained the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in September behind China, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
His assertion came after Trump claimed that his "friend" PM Modi has assured him that India would stop purchasing oil from Russia, a move he described as a big step toward increasing pressure on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.
United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday said Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would stop purchasing oil from Russia, describing it as "a big step" in efforts to increase global pressure on Moscow.
India's crude oil imports from Russia saw a marginal decline in September, but continued to account for over one-third of the country's total oil purchases, despite US pressure to curb the trade over concerns that it supports Moscow's war effort in Ukraine. India's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 220,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year.
'I do believe there will be a resolution in the next couple of months on the penal tariff and hopefully on the reciprocal tariff also.'
Global emerging market investors are sharply cutting back on India, making it the largest underweight market, as funds rotate into China, Hong Kong, and South Korea amid tariff shocks and valuation concerns.
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Russia has a "special mechanism" to confront any challenge arising out of the US slapping punitive measures against India for its procurement of Russian crude oil, Russian charge d'affaires Roman Babushkin said on Wednesday.
Urals and Sokol accounted for every 4 out of 5 barrels of Russian supplies to India last year.
China appears determined to upgrade Pakistan's military capabilities, sufficient to ensure local parity with India, alerts former foreign secretary Ambassador Shyam Saran.
India's crude oil imports from Russia fell for a second straight month in January to its lowest in 12 months but the nation's insatiable appetite for Russian crude remains for the long term, according to data from energy cargo tracker and industry officials. Russia supplied 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil to India in January, down from 1.32 million barrels in December and 1.62 million barrels in November 2023, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia however continues to remain India's top oil supplier, accounting for a little less than a quarter of 4.91 million barrels a day of oil that the world's third largest energy consumer imported in January.
India's imports of crude oil from Russia touched a new high of 1.64 million barrels per day in March and is now double of the purchases from Iraq - the nation's traditional top oil supplier. But the purchases appear to have plateaued as growth has slowed. Russia continued to be the single largest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into petrol and diesel at refineries, for a sixth straight month by supplying more than one-third of all oil India imported, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
India may see a structural shift in supplies of crude oil with Russia emerging as a key source of fuels, a development that reduces New Delhi's dependence on West Asian oil, gives Indian refiners better bargaining power with price-setter Saudi Arabia, and improves overall energy security. The unexpected surge in supplies of Russian crude in the last few months, unthinkable until the war in Ukraine, may also deliver other unforeseen gains such as boosting exports of refined fuels to Europe, which historically has counted on Russian shipments. India has jumped on to the bandwagon of opportunistic buying of Russian crude but if calibrated carefully, Urals crude can be a long-term asset for India refiners.
On the back of rising crude oil purchases, India's bill for imports from sanctions-hit Russia jumped 3.5 times in a year in April to $2.3 billion, showed data from the commerce ministry. In April, India's crude oil imports from Russia were valued at $1.3 billion, 57 per cent of India's total inbound shipments from Russia. Other major imported items during the month included coal, soybean and sunflower oil, fertilisers, and non-industrial diamonds. That month, Russia was also the fourth-largest crude petroleum supplier to India, after Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In a significant move, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has accorded approval for the procurement of more than 200 BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles and associated equipment for the Indian Navy at a cost of around Rs 19,000 crore, people familiar with the matter said on Thursday.
The contracts for the procurement of the platforms and weapons systems were signed in the presence of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and defence secretary Giridhar Aramane, under whose guidance these deals fructified, an official readout said.
Heaping praise on India, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the Indian leadership is 'self-directed' and led by the country's national interests, according to Reuters.
Russian oil supplies to India will continue to flow unhindered and suppliers will come up with ways to sidestep secondary sanctions, a Russian official told Business Standard.
The missile firing demonstrated the Indian Navy's firepower at sea, they said.
In a boost to the Aatmanirbhar Bharat campaign, the Indian Navy on Sunday successfully test-fired the ship-launched version of the BrahMos supersonic missile in the Arabian Sea.
The new BrahMos missiles will be 'dual-role capable', which means warships can fire them at targets on land as well as at enemy warships.
What is more surprising is that a surge in Russian oil supplies has come after the G7 imposed stringent sanctions on Moscow.
India's unabated tryst with Russian crude oil is slowly coming to an end. The time has come for Indian refiners to navigate, creatively, the choppy waters of the post-honeymoon period, and for Indian policymakers to take cognisance of the broader impact on India from the spillover of the Russian crisis - after Washington's warning to transgressors last week. Shipments from Russia to India have averaged over 1.8 million barrels a day since February, according to data from Paris-based market analytics firm Kpler. But much of the crude shipped to India was non-sanctioned because it traded below a price cap set by the US led G-7 nations in December.
The "live firing" of the missile was carried out in close coordination with the Indian Navy, the IAF said.
The BrahMos export order would be the biggest for the country in this field and is likely to propel India amongst arms exporting countries as more orders for the missile are expected from other friendly countries.
The Southeast Asian nation has been focusing on modernising its military in the face of myriad security challenges as well as decades-long territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.
The procurement is expected to signal a major upswing in India's strategic ties with the Philippines which has been focusing on ramping up its naval prowess in the face of its lingering friction with China in the South China Sea.
The Xi Jinping regime might try to quell internal distress by directing nationalism and militarism against India, warn Ajay Shah and Gautam Bambawale.
In October 2018, India had signed a US$ 5 billion deal with Russia to buy five units of the S-400 air defence missile systems, despite a warning from the Trump administration that going ahead with the contract may invite US sanctions.
Petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a freeze for the past four months in view of assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, need to be increased by over Rs 12 per litre by March 16 for fuel retailers to break even. International crude oil prices shot above $120 a barrel for the first time in nine years on Thursday before retreating a little to $111 on Friday, but the gulf between cost and retail rates has only widened. With international oil prices - on which domestic fuel retails are directly benchmarked - spiking in the last two months, state-owned fuel retailers "need a massive price hike of Rs 12.1 per litre on or before March 16, 2022, just to breakeven and a price hike of Rs 15.1 is required" after including margins for oil firms, ICICI Securities said in a report.
Petrol and diesel prices are likely to be hiked this week as oil companies prepare to pare losses accumulated from keeping rates steady for over four months in the run-up to assembly elections in five states, including UP, despite international oil prices jumping to a 13-year high of $140 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US oil benchmark, rose to $130.50 per barrel on Sunday evening, its highest since July 2008, before retreating. The international benchmark, Brent crude, hit a high of $139.13 at one point overnight, also its highest since July 2008.
Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the Rs 9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel. International crude oil prices shot above $110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions. The basket of crude oil India buys rose above $102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry.
International oil prices retreated from an over seven-year high but was still above $100 a barrel and continue to pose threat to India's inflation rate and current account deficit. While there are no supply concerns as the oil route remained open, consumers will feel the pinch when PSU oil firms start passing on the increase in international rates through a revision in petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a pause for over three-and-a-half-months in view of elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states. The government is "closely monitoring the situation" and will "take appropriate steps as and when required", a top official said. Brent crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2014, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
