India's services sector growth slowed in March, reaching a 14-month low, according to the HSBC India Services PMI. The slowdown reflects weaker new business intakes and rising input costs, particularly in fuel, transport, and logistics.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP for FY27, continuing the path of fiscal consolidation. The government aims to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 55.6% by BE 2026-27 and further to around 50% by March 2031.
There are some apparent paradoxes visible in the data from the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26). The gross domestic product (GDP) delivered a positive surprise with 7.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth.
Here are the key numbers to watch out for in the Union Budget for 2025-26:
The logic of war plus the gathering storms in US politics as the midterms loom large leave him with no real alternative but to negotiate, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'More than becoming a unicorn, what truly satisfies us is seeing small businesses grow from Rs 10,000 a month to Rs 20 lakh after joining our platform.'
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
After years of rapid expansion, the Centre's capital spending growth eases as private investment shows early signs of revival, points out A K Bhattacharya.
China's latest defence budget surges to $275 billion, fueling its ambitious military modernisation program and intensifying geopolitical dynamics in the region.
The modern war is about quality over quantity, points out Mihir S Sharma.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday revised upward its growth estimates for the current fiscal year to 6.8 per cent and lowered its inflation projection to 2.6 per cent based on an above-normal monsoon and the rationalisation of GST rates.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
India's retail inflation, which has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent target in recent times, is likely to remain benign in the coming months, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said in a speech, on Friday, which was uploaded on the central bank's website on Tuesday. Headline inflation dipped to multi-year lows of around 1.5-2.8 per cent in late 2025.
Opposition MPs in the Rajya Sabha criticised the Modi government's economic policies, citing the LPG crisis, lack of energy security, and concerns over the Economic Stabilisation Fund.
Remittances from West Asia in March rose sharply amid the conflict in the region, with industry insiders estimating inflows to be 20-30 per cent higher than what is usual in a month.
The aggregate net worth of the country's 176 dollar billionaires dropped to $984.2 billion during 2025, down from a record $1,036.2 billion at the end of December 2024.
'After the Galwan clash, the rules of engagement changed with the army commanders allowed to use any means at their disposal as they deem fit for tactical operations.'
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday warned that India's limited crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels - sufficient for only 40-45 days of consumption - leave the country particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in West Asia.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the key policy rates will remain at low levels for a long period and may go down even further.
Of the donations, 48% is in kind -- such as food, clothing, or other household goods -- followed by cash (44%) and volunteering (30%) with non-profits, religious institutions, or community groups.
Deloitte India on Thursday projected India's economy to grow 6.7-6.9 per cent in the current fiscal amid buoyant demand and policy reforms. Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
The idea of back-loading the target of fiscal consolidation is perhaps guided by the government's desire to be prepared for any adverse developments in the coming year, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The Union Budget for 2026-27, presented by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday, which was a first, had an excellent domestic macro backdrop. According to the first advance estimates, gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices is projected to grow 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, against 6.5 per cent in 2024-25.
Indian economy grew by 7.8 per cent in April-June -- the highest in five quarters -- before the disruptive US tariffs were imposed.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
India is on track to exceed the $4 trillion milestone in 2025-26 (FY26), surpassing the $3.9 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) mark recorded at the end of March 2025, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday.
The Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM) is advocating for the termination of the moratorium on customs duties for electronically transmitted digital products, arguing that it hinders self-reliance, causes revenue losses, and restricts India's ability to tax emerging technologies like AI.
The Indian rupee crashed to a record closing low against the US dollar due to rising global crude oil prices, a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Gold prices are expected to remain volatile next week as investors track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and key macroeconomic data releases that could shape the sentiment in the domestic market, analysts said.
When it comes to raising funds, women entrepreneurs receive a disproportionately small share.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
The finance minister said that consolidation of state-owned banks could proceed at any time without waiting for the recommendations of the proposed high-level committee on banking.
'The real risk is not that AI will fail to transform India's economy.'
'The risk is that it already is -- while our measurement systems continue to look the other way,' observes Nishant Sahdev, a theoretical physicist at the University of North Carolina.
India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
'If you go by the capital expenditure, this is a good defence budget. But we will have to see if the government can keep defence spending at 2 per cent or higher in 2027-2028.'
