India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record 3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of 1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.
'When I look at India's relative valuations, these are by far the lowest I have seen in my 35-year career.' 'The relative 12-month trailing performance is among the weakest I have seen, and foreign investor positioning is at a 16-17 year low.'
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of India's Financial Stability Report indicates that the interim peace deal between the US and Iran has favourably shifted the balance of risks, reducing headwinds from the West Asia conflict. However, it cautions that exchange rate volatility could increase if crude oil prices spike due to delayed normalisation of supply chain disruptions.
'The real money in India over the coming period is likely to be made in small-cap stocks rather than in the large-cap benchmark names.'
IT stocks had their worst first half fall in decades, with the Nifty IT index declining 31% in the January-June 2026 period, its biggest decline in the first six months of a calendar year since 2003.
The World Bank has increased India's economic growth projection for FY27 to 6.6 per cent, citing resilient domestic demand, while simultaneously cutting its global economic growth outlook due to the conflict in West Asia.
Not a single retail outlet ran dry. Every household that wanted a cylinder got one. India faced neither a 1991 moment nor a 2013 one. Macroeconomic stability held. This was not an accident, and it was not luck alone. It was the work of a government that chose to act as it had during the pandemic -- deliberately and gradually, building one measure upon another rather than reaching for a single dramatic lever, explains V Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
It seems odd to criticise a country for delivering growth rates in standards of living and consumption that have been perhaps the fastest, longest, and most broad-based (affecting hundreds of millions of people) in history, points out Arvind Subramanian.
Immigrants' contribution to the US economy is disproportionate to their share of the population, meaning that losing them would shrink the economy even more than losing a random group of Americans, points out Sree Sreenivasan.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend the BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12-13, according to a presidential aide.
The IMF on Monday raised India's growth projection to 7.3 per cent for fiscal 2025-26, up 0.7 percentage point from its October forecast, on the back of better-than-expected performance of the economy. The Washington-headquartered multilateral lending agency has also revised India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 6.4 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27 beginning April 1, 2026, from its earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.
Nomura has increased its March 2027 target for the Nifty 50 to 25,900, driven by strong corporate earnings and attractive market valuations, even as risks from the West Asia conflict and high oil prices persist.
'You have seen the retrenchments by big corporates in the IT industry because they are not getting enough offers.' 'MSMEs in the manufacturing sector are really struggling. They do not know what to do. They are not able to predict what will happen tomorrow.'
Private hospitals accounted for 30.8 per cent of current health expenditure in FY23, while pharmaceuticals and medical goods contributed more than 21 per cent, underlining continued dependence on private healthcare and medicine spending.
The Indian economy recorded a six-quarter high growth of 8.2 per cent in July-September, as factories churned out more products in anticipation of a consumption boost from the GST rate cut, according to government data.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
India's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market is projected to maintain an annual run-rate of approximately $200 billion, evenly split between domestic, inbound, and outbound transactions, despite global geopolitical turbulence, according to Rajesh Singhi, global co-head, M&A Advisory, Standard Chartered Bank.
'Investors shouldn't let fear dictate their decisions. The most important step is simply to begin investing.'
'Why not aspire for 8 or 9 or even 10 per cent?'
The Indian stock market mythos of 36 years is wrapped in a diaphanous negligee, lashed together by a delicate, etheric sash of 1.6 bull markets. To make money from here on will require a ground invasion, trench by trench, rather than carpet bombing. Way more difficult, points out Shankar Sharma.
India's household debt climbed to 41.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of March 2025, marking a sustained rise from its five-year average of 38.3 per cent, with consumption-related loans accounting for bulk of the borrowings, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its Financial Stability Report.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally lower due to profit-taking, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged while lowering its growth expectations for the current fiscal year and forecasting higher inflation.
Moody's Ratings on Friday said with a 7 per cent GDP expansion in 2025 and 6.4 per cent in the next year, India will lead growth among emerging markets and across the Asia Pacific region.
India's real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at 7.5 per cent in FY26 and moderate to 7 per cent in the subsequent fiscal year, a domestic rating agency said on Wednesday.
Under Mission Sudarshan Chakra, the country's national security shield is to be expanded by 2035 to ensure comprehensive protection of both strategic and civilian critical infrastructure.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have reaffirmed their commitment to dismantling global hegemonism and building a 'multipolar world' during high-level talks in Beijing.
A joint study by IBM and IndiaAI, a MeiTY initiative, indicates that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to contribute over USD 500 billion to India's economy by 2030. The report highlights the need for improved AI literacy, infrastructure, and data quality to fully realise this potential.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.4 per cent, from 6.9 per cent, on increased consumer spending and improved sentiment boosted by GST reforms.
JSW Motors, part of the JSW group, is set to enter India's passenger vehicle market with plans to launch 15 new-energy vehicles (NEVs) over the next four years, with deliveries commencing from December 2026.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
Analysts predict that developments in West Asia, their impact on crude oil prices, and the trading activity of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will be crucial factors influencing the Indian stock market this week.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged states to balance the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence with the need to safeguard against social challenges like cyber fraud and drug abuse. He also warned of the risks posed by El Nino conditions, calling for stronger water conservation measures and emphasising the collective resolve towards a 'Viksit Bharat'.
India's defence expenditure surged to $92.1 billion in 2025, making it the world's fifth-largest military spender, according to SIPRI data. This 8.9 per cent year-on-year rise was primarily driven by operational and procurement needs following heightened regional tensions with Pakistan in May 2025.
The IMD is predicting close to a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, which means there is a strong possibility that the monsoon this year will be poor.
'I will not be surprised if there is a 7 per cent handle in front of the decimal place for the full financial year.'
'We won not (only) because we were able to carry out long-range precision strikes.' 'That is, of course, one of the reasons but we had better situational awareness about what's happening than Pakistan.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
