The Reserve Bank of India's Financial Stability Report indicates that the interim peace deal between the US and Iran has favourably shifted the balance of risks, reducing headwinds from the West Asia conflict. However, it cautions that exchange rate volatility could increase if crude oil prices spike due to delayed normalisation of supply chain disruptions.
Why would a country that requires close to $90 billion in net foreign capital annually to create jobs, build productive capacity, and sustain rapid growth permit $30 billion of capital to flow abroad, thereby contributing to pressure on the rupee? asks Debashis Basu.
IT stocks had their worst first half fall in decades, with the Nifty IT index declining 31% in the January-June 2026 period, its biggest decline in the first six months of a calendar year since 2003.
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record 3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of 1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.
The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
The Indian government is set to accelerate reforms, including measures to enhance foreign direct investment, speed up divestment, and boost asset monetisation, to maintain economic growth despite rising fuel and fertiliser import costs driven by the West Asia crisis.
'When I look at India's relative valuations, these are by far the lowest I have seen in my 35-year career.' 'The relative 12-month trailing performance is among the weakest I have seen, and foreign investor positioning is at a 16-17 year low.'
'The real money in India over the coming period is likely to be made in small-cap stocks rather than in the large-cap benchmark names.'
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
India's gross savings rate is projected to be nearly 47 basis points higher in FY25 than previously estimated, following the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi) revision of the methodology for calculating household savings routed through the securities market.
The World Bank has increased India's economic growth projection for FY27 to 6.6 per cent, citing resilient domestic demand, while simultaneously cutting its global economic growth outlook due to the conflict in West Asia.
Immigrants' contribution to the US economy is disproportionate to their share of the population, meaning that losing them would shrink the economy even more than losing a random group of Americans, points out Sree Sreenivasan.
'Investors shouldn't let fear dictate their decisions. The most important step is simply to begin investing.'
'Why not aspire for 8 or 9 or even 10 per cent?'
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
It seems odd to criticise a country for delivering growth rates in standards of living and consumption that have been perhaps the fastest, longest, and most broad-based (affecting hundreds of millions of people) in history, points out Arvind Subramanian.
Nomura has increased its March 2027 target for the Nifty 50 to 25,900, driven by strong corporate earnings and attractive market valuations, even as risks from the West Asia conflict and high oil prices persist.
'You have seen the retrenchments by big corporates in the IT industry because they are not getting enough offers.' 'MSMEs in the manufacturing sector are really struggling. They do not know what to do. They are not able to predict what will happen tomorrow.'
Private hospitals accounted for 30.8 per cent of current health expenditure in FY23, while pharmaceuticals and medical goods contributed more than 21 per cent, underlining continued dependence on private healthcare and medicine spending.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend the BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12-13, according to a presidential aide.
The Indian stock market mythos of 36 years is wrapped in a diaphanous negligee, lashed together by a delicate, etheric sash of 1.6 bull markets. To make money from here on will require a ground invasion, trench by trench, rather than carpet bombing. Way more difficult, points out Shankar Sharma.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally lower due to profit-taking, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged while lowering its growth expectations for the current fiscal year and forecasting higher inflation.
India's new national accounts will leverage new data sources and surveys to enhance the measurement of the country's informal economy, and introduce double deflation methods across sectors, replacing the current system that relies on a single deflation mechanism in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations.
India's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market is projected to maintain an annual run-rate of approximately $200 billion, evenly split between domestic, inbound, and outbound transactions, despite global geopolitical turbulence, according to Rajesh Singhi, global co-head, M&A Advisory, Standard Chartered Bank.
JSW Motors, part of the JSW group, is set to enter India's passenger vehicle market with plans to launch 15 new-energy vehicles (NEVs) over the next four years, with deliveries commencing from December 2026.
The government has proposed to lower debt-to-GDP ratio to 55.6 per cent in FY27, from 56.1 per cent in the current fiscal year, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Sunday.
The government has proposed to lower debt-to-GDP ratio to 55.6 per cent in FY27, from 56.1 per cent in the current fiscal year, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Sunday.
Analysts predict that developments in West Asia, their impact on crude oil prices, and the trading activity of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will be crucial factors influencing the Indian stock market this week.
Under Mission Sudarshan Chakra, the country's national security shield is to be expanded by 2035 to ensure comprehensive protection of both strategic and civilian critical infrastructure.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged states to balance the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence with the need to safeguard against social challenges like cyber fraud and drug abuse. He also warned of the risks posed by El Nino conditions, calling for stronger water conservation measures and emphasising the collective resolve towards a 'Viksit Bharat'.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have reaffirmed their commitment to dismantling global hegemonism and building a 'multipolar world' during high-level talks in Beijing.
A joint study by IBM and IndiaAI, a MeiTY initiative, indicates that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to contribute over USD 500 billion to India's economy by 2030. The report highlights the need for improved AI literacy, infrastructure, and data quality to fully realise this potential.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
The IMD is predicting close to a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, which means there is a strong possibility that the monsoon this year will be poor.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
'We won not (only) because we were able to carry out long-range precision strikes.' 'That is, of course, one of the reasons but we had better situational awareness about what's happening than Pakistan.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
The IMF on Monday raised India's growth projection to 7.3 per cent for fiscal 2025-26, up 0.7 percentage point from its October forecast, on the back of better-than-expected performance of the economy. The Washington-headquartered multilateral lending agency has also revised India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 6.4 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27 beginning April 1, 2026, from its earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.
